UFC Vegas 117 Predictions:
After a stunning UFC 328, the Meta APEX hosts this week’s UFC Vegas 117, an event populated with 13 bouts, featuring a highly international set of athletes.
Sixteen Foreign fighters from 13 different countries arrive to compete in the smaller APEX octagon in front of a diminutive gathering of fans.
There are only a couple of slight age differences in these matchups. There are also only four battles with combatants weighing 170 pounds or above, so this fight card may feature fighters with a bit more skill than power.
Last week, this column went 1-1 for a half-unit win. We march on this week with the understanding that next week the UFC takes a break before traveling to Macao for the Yadong vs. Figueiredo fight slate.
Results to date: 9-10-1 -1.5u
Arnold Allen -165 vs. Melquizael Costa +145
Featherweight (145 pounds) main event
Twelfth-ranked Costa trains at the world-famous ‘Chute Boxe’ fight club in Brazil. A brown belt in BJJ with a black belt in Muay Thai, Costa brings a combination of physical size, mixed martial arts expertise, and tremendous momentum into this bout.
Costa bumbled to a 1-2 UFC tally before winning his last six fights against a set of UFC adversaries that was stepped up for each new battle.
Costa is a southpaw with a diversity of attack, an aggressive nature, and finishing ability. Four of his seven victories in the UFC have come via finish, including his last, which was an impressive TKO over Dan Ige, a man who had never been finished prior.
Costa, 29, is in the prime of his career, and he is rolling into this fight with tremendous belief and swagger.
Seventh-ranked featherweight Arnold Allen stands at the opposing end of the octagon. Allen, an Englishman now training at Tristar gym in Montreal, is an equipped wrestling talent with sound striking skills. He won his first nine UFC bouts; however, over his last four, he is 1-3.
A closer look at those last four Allen fights shows that his losses were all competitively fought and against elite top-five-ranked athletes in the division: Max Holloway, Jean Silva, and Movsar Evloev.
This fight opened a pick ’em, but by yesterday (Monday, May 11), the widespread price on Allen stood -190. Today, his price is -165.
We may be seeing public money (via the recency bias attached to Costa) arrive for the Brazilian as he has been dynamic lately, while Allen’s results against the absolute elite in this division may be offering us a discount on the more experienced athlete/fighter.
Allen’s wrestling, his base form of fighting, will expose Costa’s BJJ, but how these two fare on the feet should be worth watching. It’s my take that Costa will attempt to use his height/reach in a stand-up affair, while Allen will want to tackle the Brazilian and gain top control in order to hold dominance in this fight.
Allen -165 is a buy now. However, those who choose to monitor this line closely may be able to gain a few extra cents on the Allen price by waiting and monitoring, which is exactly what I will do, so grab Allen -165 or better and good luck!
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -150
Strong lean Over
Khaos Williams -130 vs. Nikolay Veretennikov +110
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Khaos Williams is 2-2 in his last four bouts, has lost his last two fights, and now looks to bounce back after a disappointing defeat to ultra-short-notice replacement athlete Andreas Gustafsson in June of last year.
Williams packs great power in his strikes/kicks, but his strike defense has earned him a negative significant strike advantage of .45 significant strikes per minute of fight time. Williams is a furious-paced fighter who hurls hammers but unfortunately accepts incoming fire also.
A blue belt in BJJ, Williams has very little wrestling acumen, as evidenced by his 0% takedown rate and 51% takedown defense. I might add that in his last several fights, Williams has not had to compete against anyone known to hold heavy or even moderate wrestling ability, so 51% is very concerning.
In to fight Williams is Russian vice-grip wrestler/striker Veretennikov, fighting out of Kings MMA in California, so travel is not a factor for the Russian in this fight.
Veretennikov is going to be giving away slight reach to the power-striking Williams, but he is the taller fighter, he is older by four years, and he arrives off an impressive win over journeyman fighter Nico Price.
Veritennikov sports a negative significant strike differential per minute also, while throwing less volume than his adversary, Williams, so we have a couple of fighters who attack but also receive!
Wrestling may well be the difference in this fight as Williams struggles when fights hit the floor, especially if he is underneath, and Veretennikov shows up to this battle equipped with that formidable Russian wrestling/sambo base, solid striking ability, and great durability.
Should Williams be able to manipulate this fight into a standing affair, then it is my judgment that the fight will be ultra close. However, Veretennikov’s wrestling, his forceful, forward pressure, and takedown dominance, all highly underrated, will be of central importance in keeping him in control of this bout.
Both of these men need a win desperately, and both are on the cusp of the organization, so we will witness two motivated, focused men compete to the depths of their souls, utilizing every skill available to them to get their arm raised in victory.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -165
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast (awarded as one of the top 25 MMA podcasts recently) drops across all podcast platforms and is available at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
