On Friday, June 7th, Casper Ruud will face Alexander Zverev for a spot in the French Open final. Ruud is looking to make the final for the third year in a row, so this pressure will be nothing new to him. However, Zverev has seen his run end in the semifinals of each of the last three French Opens. So, advancing one step further and getting to the final is something that has escaped him. He also hasn’t been to the final of a Grand Slam since the 2020 US Open. But Zverev is a player that a lot of people liked as a longer shot to win at Roland Garros. And he enters this match as a small betting favorite. With that in mind, this should be an interesting battle between two very good players. Keep reading to see how I think it might go.
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Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev Odds
(Odds accurate as of 12:00 pm EST on Thursday, June 6th)
Moneyline: Zverev -125, Ruud +100
Spread: Zverev -1.5 Games (-120), Ruud +1.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 39.5 (-112), Under 39.5 (-118)
Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction
Ruud and Zverev actually met in the semifinals of last year’s French Open, and the Norwegian cruised to a 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 win in that match. It was a dominant victory for Ruud, who seems to be very under-appreciated in the landscape of professional tennis right now. Ruud has never won a major, but he has been to the final of three Grand Slams since the start of 2022. Not many players can pull something like that off, but it feels like we gloss over him quite a bit. And that’s even true in a matchup against Zverev, who isn’t part of the current Big Three (Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner). Zverev is currently taking most of the tickets and handle at DraftKings Sportsbook.
I’m not expecting Ruud to wipe the court with Zverev again this year. The German wasn’t too far removed from a serious ankle injury in 2022, and he is playing at a much higher level in 2024 than he did in 2023. In fact, he’s getting pretty close to his 2022 level, which had him near the top of the men’s game. However, I do think this is a matchup that is quite favorable for Ruud, and I also think there’s some surrounding context that gives the Norwegian an edge.
Zverev is a very fit player and he spoke about his intense cardio regimen after beating Alex De Minaur in the semifinals. However, the 27-year-old has played nearly 12 hours of tennis over his last three matches, and all of those were insanely physical battles. He had to dig deep to come back from a double-break deficit in the fifth set against Tallon Griekspoor in the third round, and he was down 2-1 against Holger Rune in the Round of 16. Also, while Zverev did beat De Minaur in straight sets, that match was an absolute grind and you could see the German missing some shots he normally makes in the final two sets. That said, I think fatigue can be a small issue for Zverev here, and Ruud is coming off a walkover because of Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal.
Not only does Ruud have a slight advantage in the rest department, but Zverev has also been a little shaky throughout the course of this tournament. He obviously was able to find a way to emerge victorious in all five of his previous matches, but he gave his opponents a lot of chances to win. They just weren’t able to take advantage, whether it was because of fitness issues, bad decision-making or a clear mismatch in talent. Well, Ruud is in outstanding physical condition, is one of the best players in the world when it comes to point construction and has more talent than most of Zverev’s previous opponents. If the German gives him an inch, he’s going to take a mile.
I also just like the way that Ruud matches up with Zverev on the court. I know Zverev’s serve is one of the biggest weapons on the planet, but the slower conditions in Paris will make things a little easier on Ruud as a returner. And I like the way the Norwegian’s baseline game stacks up against Zverev’s. Ruud has one of the biggest forehands in the world and it’s especially dangerous on clay. He’s also great at using his precise footwork to set up opportunities to rip that shot. So, Ruud should be on the hunt quite a bit in this match. Ruud also hits a very heavy topspin forehand, and I think he’s going to pepper Zverev’s forehand side with that shot. Zverev’s forehand has been insanely leaky all year long, and it has been a big problem for him in Paris. Ruud is going to ask a lot of questions of Zverev on that side of the court, and the Norwegian’s ability to change up the height of that shot should lead to some errors for the German.
Overall, this is a spot in which I’m putting trust in a more polished and rested player. I’m not going to take it myself, as I have a future on Ruud to win the tournament at +1200. But I likely would have gone 1.5 or 2 units on this play if I needed to play this match on its own.
Lean: Ruud ML (+105)
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