On Thursday, June 6th, 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva takes on Jasmine Paolini in the semifinals of the French Open. Neither one of these players was expected to be here, as Andreeva faced Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals and Paolini took on Elena Rybakina. Both players were massive underdogs, but they were able to find a way through. Now, we’re going to see one of them as an unlikely finalist at Roland Garros. However, both of these players are very talented, and Andreeva is a player that many expect to win Grand Slams in the future. So, this isn’t some sort of miserable matchup. With that in mind, keep reading to see how Andreeva vs. Paolini could play out.
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Mirra Andreeva vs. Jasmine Paolini Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 12:00 pm PST on Wednesday, June 5th)
Moneyline: Andreeva -140, Paolini +115
Spread: Andreeva -1.5 Games (-120), Paolini +1.5 Games (+100)
Total: Over 21.5 (-110), Under 21.5 (-110)
Mirra Andreeva vs. Jasmine Paolini Prediction
I was genuinely shocked to see Andreeva and Paolini win their matches, and I actually had a moneyline parlay in on Sabalenka and Rybakina in the quarters. However, I am a huge fan of both of these players. Andreeva is a player that I have been betting on the futures market at the last couple of majors, and I even noted in my French Open preview that the 17-year-old could be in for a lengthy run here. However, I didn’t think she had the ability to deal with Sabalenka’s power. Luckily for Andreeva, the Australian Open champion looked a little out of it all match, looking unwilling to chase down balls and also racking up a ton of unforced errors. Then, Sabalenka had to skip her post-match press conference because tournament officials were treating her for an illness. Well, Andreeva is now through to the semis and I’m kicking myself a bit for not cashing on it. Meanwhile, Paolini just played a great match against Rybakina. It was less about Rybakina beating herself and more about Paolini taking it to her from the baseline. The latter is why I give Paolini a slight edge in this match.
Both of these players have the ability to play tremendous defense. In Andreeva’s case, I have been comparing the teenager to Coco Gauff quite a bit over the last six or seven months. I love her ability to turn on the jets and play high-level defense, and I think her backhand is already a great shot for her. However, like Gauff, Andreeva has a very shaky forehand. That’s not a shot that can consistently produce winners. She’s also runs a little hot and cold as a server. With that in mind, Paolini will have opportunities in this match. We just saw the Italian do a ton of damage against Rybakina’s serve in these slower conditions, and that’s one of the best servers on the planet. So, Paolini should put Andreeva under constant pressure here. Also, from the baseline, Paolini is going to be able to engage in very long rallies with Andreeva, but I feel a little better about the 28-year-old’s ability to end points.
It does need to be noted that Andreeva beat Paolini 7-6 (2), 6-4 when the two met in Rome late in April. But those faster conditions gave Andreeva a little boost in terms of firepower from the baseline. With the slower court speeds, the 17-year-old could struggle to get the ball by Paolini.
I also wonder whether or not Andreeva will be able to mentally clock in for this match. I know Paolini is now deeper in a major than she has ever been, but she’s a lot older and probably feels like this is where she belongs — especially on clay. After all, the Italian is now in the WTA’s Top 10. But Andreeva is coming off a win over somebody that absolutely pummeled her in Madrid, and she could be due for an emotional letdown here. Considering all of the above, I’d rather play Paolini at plus-money odds. I think this match is close to 50-50, but I lean the Italian’s direction and want something on this match.
Bet: Paolini ML (+115)
