French Open best bets for Wednesday, June 5th
We’re in the thick of the second major of this exciting 2024 tennis season, as the top ATP and WTA players in the world are in Paris for the 2024 French Open. The action at Roland Garros should be stellar over the next couples of days, so now isn’t the time to stop watching. I’ll be doing my daily tennis best bets until we see two champions crowned. So, keep reading for some of my favorite plays for Day 11 of the French Open, which will be played on Wednesday, June 5th and features some men’s and women’s quarter-final matches.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 345-357 (+30.01 units)
Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina
Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka
There are two big women’s matches on Wednesday and I just couldn’t bring myself to sit these out. So, I’m keeping things pretty simple and playing the two favorites in a moneyline parlay. Sure, it’s a little juicy at just about -160, but think about the implied probability. The -159 odds on this parlay suggests it would hit 61.4% of the time. And considering the mismatches in these two quarterfinals, I think it’s a lot closer to 75.0%.
The first of the two matches is the one that is a little dicier. Paolini is a proven clay-court player and has already had a great 2024 season. She’s really emerging as a top-10 player in the women’s game, and she definitely has the ability to do some damage against Rybakina from the baseline. But I ultimately think that Rybakina’s ability to easily hold serve will be the difference here.
There’s just a massive difference between the way these two go about their business on the serve, and the difference in height is the reason for that. Physically, there’s only so much that Paolini can do in her service games, and that should present Rybakina with plenty of chances to break. And while Paolini is a great returner, I don’t see Rybakina giving her as many chances. Also, if Rybakina is striking the ball well from the baseline, she could overpower Paolini a bit. That has happened in each of their last two clay-court matches, and one of those was a 7-6 (4), 6-1 in Rome last year. Those conditions mimic the ones in Paris. And Rybakina has only gotten more comfortable on slower clay.
As for the other matchup, I just think Sabalenka is too strong for Andreeva right now. I thought Andreeva was going to have a chance to beat Sabalenka in Madrid, but that was one of the most lopsided matches I have seen in quite some time. Sabalenka absolutely bullied the ball in that one, and Andreeva had no answer for it. Well, it’s going to be even harder for Andreeva to hit the ball by Sabalenka on slower courts. So, while Andreeva’s day is undoubtedly coming soon, I don’t think it’s going to happen here.
PARLAY: Rybakina ML + Sabalenka ML (-159 – 1.5 units)
Alex De Minaur vs. Alexander Zverev
Novak Djokovic withdrew from the tournament with a torn meniscus and a lot of people think it was the nine hours he spent on court in his previous two matches that did him in. Well, Zverev has spent a total of eight hours and 32 minutes on the court in his last two matches. Sure, the German superstar is younger and might not be injured because of it, but I also don’t think it’s safe to assume he’ll reach his normal level here. And Zverev had already been playing some shaky tennis before all that time on court, making it hard to believe he’s going to beat De Minaur down.
De Minaur also happens to be one of the most physical players on tour. The Australian is probably faster than anybody that isn’t named Carlos Alcaraz, and De Minaur uses his wheels to get everything back in play. So, he’s going to really force Zverev to dig deep and win a lot of long rallies, and at some point you’d have to think that the German will wear himself down. De Minaur has also been very competitive against Zverev in their recent encounters, beating him in three sets at United Cup in January and then losing in three sets at Indian Wells in March. De Minaur used to just be a pusher that got everything back in play, and his serve was very easy for opponents to pounce on. But he is getting better and better as a server, and he is a lot bolder when going for big shots from the forehand side. That has made him more dangerous on all surfaces, but it has been clear as day on clay.
Overall, I’d just be surprised if De Minaur didn’t find a way to keep this match close. And I also think he’s somewhat live as an underdog, which is why I’m adding a small moneyline play to a bigger spread play. The rest factor is really big for me. Zverev is a much better clay-court performer, but these are unique circumstances. Zverev also happens to have a lot on his mind off the court. (Google it.)
Bet: De Minaur +5.5 Games (-141 – 2 units) & De Minaur ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
Adrian Andreev ML (-154) vs. Nerman Fatic [Zagreb Challenger]
Jule Niemeier ML (-140 – 1.5 units) vs. Celine Naef [Surbiton W100)
Louisa Chirico +1.5 Sets (-105 – 2 units) vs. Nadia Podoroska [Bari Challenger]
Peter Heller +4.5 Games (+100 – 1.5 units) vs. Jan Choinski [Heilbronn Challenger]
Paul Jubb ML (+115 – 2 units] vs. Mikhail Kikushkin [Surbiton Challenger]
Stefan Kozlov ML (+110 – 1.5 units) vs. Chak Lam Coleman Wong [Tyler Challenger]
Henri Squire ML (+110 – 1.5 units) vs. Maximilian Marterer [Heilbronn Challenger]
Ethan Quinn ML (-222 – 1.5 units) vs. Hiroki Moriya [Tyler Challenger]
