2025 Roland Garros best bets for Wednesday, May 28th
The second major of the 2025 tennis season is here. The top players in the world are in Paris, France for the 2025 French Open over the next two weeks, and the action in Roland Garros should be awesome to monitor. I’ll be posting daily best bets throughout the tournament, so VSiN is the place to be if you like betting on tennis. If you aren’t already a subscriber, I’d suggest looking into becoming a VSiN Pro soon. I constantly provide analysis on all of the biggest events, and this is the best time of the year for this sport.
I’d also strongly suggest checking the Pro Picks page throughout the day. That’s where Gill Alexander will be posting his French Open best bets. Gill does a tremendous job handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game, which is a staple of our live VSiN programming. Also, while I try to write up as many of my plays as possible, I do occasionally add things to that page throughout the day. That’s also where I post plays for smaller ATP and WTA events, and my Challenger-level plays live exclusively on that page.
With all of that out of the way, let’s get into some French Open picks for Day 4 on Wednesday, May 28th.
Victoria Mboko vs. Eva Lys
This is a meeting between two exciting young players, but I think Mboko will find a way to get the job done. Lys is a relentless baseliner, capable of really controlling rallies with how early she takes the ball and how good she is about moving opponents around the court. However, Mboko is a good mover for a player with her power. She’s capable of counter-punching when she needs to, so she shouldn’t be too bothered if Lys has some hot stretches with her ground strokes. And I ultimately think it’ll be Mboko’s forehand that ends up being the weapon that dictates play in this match. If the Canadian is having a good day from that side of the court, this should be a great matchup for her.
Mboko is just a much better server when comparing these two, and that’s why I went into this match thinking the Canadian would be a good play. The 18-year-old should have a much easier time holding than Lys, who can occasionally beat herself with her weak second serve. If Lys isn’t landing firsts at a high clip, Mboko is going to tee off on her second. That could ultimately be the difference here.
Mboko has also just been great since arriving in Paris. She won her three qualifying matches in straight sets, then she beat Lulu Sun 6-1, 7-6 (4). She’s enjoying these conditions, as she has the power to serve and hit through them. But they also give her more time to get on the ball, leading to less unforced errors.
Bet: Mboko ML (-142)
Fabian Marozsan vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz definitely should be able to beat Marozsan, but these odds are a little off to me. The oddsmakers are only giving Marozsan a 35% chance of winning a set, and I don’t understand why. Marozsan has beaten Alcaraz on clay before, doing so in straight sets in Rome in 2023. And while Alcaraz did win 6-3, 6-3 in their rematch at Indian Wells in 2024, it’s hard to rule out the possibility of the Hungarian just getting on the board on the dirt. Clay has been Marozsan’s best surface throughout his career, as his big serve, booming forehand and awesome drop shot make him a tough out in these conditions. And I ultimately think the steadiness his game offers should put at least a tiny scare into Alcaraz.
For as good as Alcaraz is, we all know he can occasionally gift service games away. And doing so against Marozsan would put him at risk of needing four or five sets to win this one. All it will take is one hot set from Marozsan as a server to start making Alcaraz sweat.
Perhaps this is a play you should put a half-unit on, as it’s definitely more of a flier than most of my picks. But I have been having a good amount of success lately — outside of Days 2 and 3 in Paris — and don’t mind risking a full unit.
Bet: Marozsan To Win A Set (+185)
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Frances Tiafoe
Carreno Busta has had a lot of success on clay in his career, but he hasn’t been the same player with all of the injuries he has suffered over the last couple of years. Sure, Carreno Busta dialed back the clock in an impressive straight-set win over Francisco Comesana last match, but can his body be trusted to hold up in back-to-back best-of-five matches?
Tiafoe also happens to have a higher clay-court Elo Rating than Carreno Busta, as the American is at 1753.4 and the Spaniard is at 1721.4. Also, Tiafoe has a 2025 Elo Rating of 1762.1 and Carreno Busta’s is down at 1641.1.
This just feels like a match in which Carreno Busta’s history on clay is being factored in a little too heavily when thinking about the odds. The Spaniard is just 3-8 since the start of the 2025 season, and he has suffered some brutal losses on this very surface. Meanwhile, Tiafoe hasn’t had the best clay-court season in the world, but he has at least played 14 matches on the dirt in 2025. He has been working hard to make sure he achieves something in Paris, and there’s a real opportunity for him to make the quarterfinals now that Taylor Fritz is out.
I just think this is a match in which I trust Tiafoe’s big-match ability, and I think his overall athleticism could be the X-factor. Even if Carreno Busta is a marginally better clay-court mover at this point, Tiafoe’s speed and explosiveness should make up for that.
Bet: Tiafoe ML (-169 – 1.5 units)
