On Saturday, June 7th, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff will meet in the finals of the 2025 French Open at Roland Garros. This is the second time these two will be meeting in the final of a major, and it was Gauff that emerged victorious in the first one. That was back when the American won 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2023 US Open. But a lot has changed since then. Sabalenka is now the world No. 1, has won three of her last four against Gauff and her game is clay-court proven. Sabalenka even beat Gauff in the Madrid finals a couple of weeks ago, so she’ll come in with the confidence that she can do it again. The question is: will she? Keep reading for a Gauff versus Sabalenka betting preview.
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Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, June 5th at 5:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -200, Gauff +150
Spread: Sabalenka -3.5 Games (-105), Gauff +3.5 Games (-130)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-105), Under 22.5 Games (-130)
How To Watch Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France
When: Saturday, June 7th
Channel: TNT / HBO Max
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
I gave out Gauff to win the tournament as a 1.5-unit play to win 8.25 units in my pre-tournament futures piece. If you tailed that play, I’d suggest playing Sabalenka to win 2 units at -182 odds — and I’d do that up to -200. That’s how I’m personally attacking this thing. I was tempted to let it ride with Gauff, as I did win 2.5 units on her to emerge from Quarter 4. But it just makes too much sense to monetize this ticket. While I liked Gauff’s chances of winning the event after seeing the draw, the reason I played it so aggressively was because I liked her chances of getting to the finals. And I was always planning to hedge in this specific matchup. However, if you’re playing this match on its own, I’d suggest going Gauff to win a set (-155 at BetRivers) with a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Sabalenka just earned a 7-6 (1), 4-6, 6-0 win over Iga Swiatek, snapping the Pole’s three-year winning streak at Roland Garros. That was one of the Belarusian’s most impressive wins ever, with her mental resolve being the main reason. Swiatek was arguably the better player for most of the first and second sets, so Sabalenka could have folded after dropping Set 2. But she played impeccable tennis in the third set, looking unbothered by the moment. Now, bettors are flocking to bet the world No. 1 at a reasonable number.
Sabalenka can overwhelm Gauff in a lot of different ways. We have seen it before. Sabalenka just has a much easier time hitting winners than Gauff, so it’s hard for the American to win when the Belarusian is striking the ball well. However, Gauff’s ability to grind along the baseline can also give Sabalenka trouble. That’s why this series is split at five wins apiece. And Gauff has won at least one set in two of the five losses. That means that Gauff has taken a set from Sabalenka in seven of their 10 WTA-level meetings. That’s 70% of the matches these two have played, but the -155 odds on Gauff to win a set make for an implied probability of only 60.78%.
This just screams value, especially in favorable conditions for Gauff. These two have only played on a slow clay court once, and that was back in 2021 when they met in Rome. Gauff won that match 7-5, 6-3, using her elite athleticism to frustrate the hell out of Sabalenka. The world-class return of serve didn’t hurt either.
I just don’t see things changing too much this time around. Sabalenka has gotten much better on clay, which is something I have written a ton about over the last few weeks. She has unreal feel for her dropshot, she misses less from the back of the court and her movement has gotten better. But playing on slower courts still neutralizes her big serve. That’s why Swiatek was able to break her so often in the semifinals, and Gauff should be able to do the same. This won’t be like their match in Madrid, where the conditions were a little more server-friendly. The conditions also help Gauff in rallies, as it’s going to be harder for Sabalenka to hit through her.
Even if the roof is closed in this one, I like Gauff to make this a match. We’ll either get faster conditions with higher bounces in the sun, giving Gauff more time to set up on the forehand side, or we’ll see lower bounces but extremely gritty conditions indoors. Gauff will be ready to rock either way.
Gauff is also coming off a great performance when it comes to her serve and forehand. She only double faulted twice against Lois Boisson, and she also had only seven unforced errors from the forehand wing. That was a huge step in the right direction for the American, who had been playing sloppy tennis to this point. If she comes into this match with some of that same confidence, she just might win her second Grand Slam title. And don’t be surprised if the crowd is a big factor. The French fans were rooting for Boisson last match, which was understandable with her being French. But they’re likely going to get behind Gauff in the final, as everybody loves an underdog. That will give Gauff a little boost in adrenaline, and it might rattle Sabalenka.
Strong Lean: Gauff +1.5 Sets (-155 – 1.5 units) & Gauff ML (+170 – 0.5 units)
NOTE: I count “strong leans” towards my record. I only use that verbiage when I’m not playing something because of futures. This is a play I’d undoubtedly be on if not for my Gauff tickets from before the event, and these are plays I think others should be making. When I just write “lean”, that’s when I’m giving out a pick on a match strictly because it’s a big match and people might want my thoughts. Those aren’t plays I’m backing on my own, or plays I’d advise backing. That’s up to the reader. So, even though I had Gauff -4.5 Games (-150) against Boisson as a lean last round, I didn’t count that as a win.
