On Thursday, June 5th, world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will look to put an end to Iga Swiatek’s remarkable run at the French Open. Swiatek has won four titles at Roland Garros, and she entered the 2025 tournament after having won it three years in a row. But if there’s any year for Sabalenka to best Swiatek on Court Philippe-Chatrier, it’s this year. Swiatek hasn’t had the type of clay-court season she was hoping for, and we have seen up-and-down play from the Pole all season. With that in mind, this matchup is more intriguing than ever, as there’s more uncertainty surrounding the Queen of Clay than ever. So, let’s get into Swiatek versus Sabalenka in the semifinals in Paris.
I also post more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, June 3rd at 5:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -120, Swiatek +100
Spread: Sabalenka -1.5 Games (-105), Swiatek +1.5 Games (-130)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-110), Under 22.5 Games (-125)
How To Watch Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France
When: Thursday, June 5th
Channel: TNT / HBO Max
Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
On paper, you don’t get many matches that can top Swiatek versus Sabalenka at a major. This is the type of battle that should excite tennis fans, but it should also be intriguing for non-tennis fans. Anybody that loves sports should find some enjoyment in a meeting between two elite athletes, on a massive stage. However, while this is an interesting showdown, it’s not a match I’d be looking to bet heavily. There are a lot of unknowns heading into this one, especially when it comes to Swiatek’s form. But even with those unknowns, it’s hard not to like the idea of backing Swiatek at plus-money odds.
Swiatek did open as a -120 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, but bettors quickly pounced on Sabalenka and made the Pole the underdog. Well, Swiatek hasn’t been an underdog in a match since 2022, and it’s especially jarring to see her at plus-money odds on clay.
Over the course of her career, Swiatek is 100-14 in clay-court matches at the WTA level. The 24-year-old is also 5-1 against Sabalenka on this surface, and the one loss came in Madrid. That’s where the conditions favor Sabalenka the most. Madrid is an altitude clay tournament, meaning Sabalenka’s ability to serve and obliterate balls from the back of the court is rewarded a little more. It’s not the same at Roland Garros, even if the tournament is playing a little quicker this year. These conditions are more like the ones in Rome, where Swiatek is 2-0 with two dominant victories over Sabalenka.
What about present day? Surely, many out there feel that the past is the past and what matters is 2024 and 2025. I fully get that, which is why this match is so interesting. Sabalenka is 39-6 since the start of the 2025 season, and Swiatek is only 32-9. Sabalenka has also won three titles this year, including one on clay, and Swiatek hasn’t yet found the winner’s circle. And realistically, there’s just plenty out there that suggests Sabalenka has been the better player for two seasons. The Belarusian has also gotten much better on the dirt, where she’s 20-3 over the last 52 weeks.
Sabalenka’s movement seems to get better every year, and she also continues to add to her toolkit. On clay, we have seen Sabalenka become extremely comfortable hitting dropshots, which is a dangerous weapon for a player that forces you to play from so far behind the baseline. She has also gotten better about hitting with shape. That’s crucial considering the importance of hitting with topspin on this surface, and it’s also good when looking at Sabalenka’s unforced error counts. When she hits with heavy topspin, she’s able to aim for bigger targets on the court.
As far as Swiatek goes, there has been a lot wrong with her game this year. Her hold percentage was up at 82.0% in 2024, but it was just 74.0% heading into this year’s French Open. A lot of that has to do with a weak second serve, which opponents are getting more and more aggressive returning. However, Swiatek’s baseline game has also been leakier than usual, and she has had her fair share of struggles with powerful baseliners. They’re able to rush her in a way that really seems to break her mentally.
RELATED: Check out my Lois Boisson vs. Coco Gauff preview!
The issue with looking too much at the recent numbers is that Sabalenka has had some shaky performances since her scorching hot start to 2025. She played two nail-biters against Marta Kostyuk, a Swiatek-like baseliner, in Madrid and Rome. She also lost to Qinwen Zheng in an ugly performance in the quarterfinals at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. And while she did get revenge for that loss in the quarterfinals here, it wasn’t the most convincing performance in the world. Meanwhile, Swiatek is starting to get a little hot in Paris, as she was down 6-1, 2-0 against Elena Rybakina in the fourth round and then snapped out of it very quickly. She came back and won 1-6, 6-3, 7-5 in a vintage Swiatek performance, and she followed it up with a 6-1, 7-5 win over a red-hot Elina Svitolina.
All of a sudden, Swiatek is looking relentless from the baseline, where she’s really demoralizing opponents with her big, heavy forehand. And as somebody that has been following this sport closely for years, I’m just not in the business of going against Swiatek when that forehand is working in slower conditions.
Swiatek should be able to put Sabalenka in some uncomfortable positions by ripping that forehand, which jumps off the court and gets opponents off balance. She’s also going to demand a lot out of Sabalenka with her ability to play defense, and that could force the Belarusian to take too many risks throughout this match. That has been the story of this head-to-head series on clay. Sabalenka eventually feels she needs to go too big, leading to too many shots hitting the net or flying long.
The only thing that makes me nervous here is the serve. If Swiatek has a bad day at the office as a server, Sabalenka is going to win. But Swiatek has looked a little better with the ball on her racquet since getting back to Roland Garros, and I have a feeling she’ll have a decent day as a server in her favorite stadium in the world. Also, even if she’s a little shaky as a server, she actually had the highest break percentage of her career (43.5%) heading into the French Open. That said, she’s also going to put a ton of pressure on the Sabalenka serve.
I undoubtedly see a world in which Sabalenka will get on the board with a clay-court win over Swiatek. If the good Sabalenka shows up and the bad Swiatek shows up, this is going to be a bloodbath. But with Swiatek trending in the right direction, I just don’t know how you lay off at +110 odds. Everybody gasped when the draw came out, thinking a struggling Swiatek would get ousted by Kostyuk or Jelena Ostapenko. Well, she avoided both and seemed to find her form in wins over two other strong players. And now that she’s here, she needs to be taken very seriously.
Pick: Swiatek ML (+110)
