On Thursday, June 5th, world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka takes on Iga Swiatek in a blockbuster match in the semifinals of the 2025 French Open. Everybody is buzzing about that matchup in Roland Garros, but there is another match to be played in the semifinals. Coco Gauff, the world No. 2, will look to get back to the French Open final for the first time since 2022, and she’s going to love her chances against French wildcard Lois Boisson. However, Boisson just defeated Mirra Andreeva, one of the favorites to win this tournament, and the French crowd is going to be fully behind her. Can Boisson pull off another shocker? Keep reading for some thoughts on this semi-final showdown.
I also post more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
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Lois Boisson vs. Coco Gauff Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, June 4th at 3:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Gauff -500, Boisson +380
Spread: Gauff -5.5 Games (+110), Boisson +5.5 Games (-150)
Total: Over 20.5 Games (-110), Under 20.5 Games (-125)
How To Watch Lois Boisson vs. Coco Gauff
Where: Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France
When: Thursday, June 5th
Channel: TNT / HBO Max
Lois Boisson vs. Coco Gauff Predictions
If you have been reading all of my French Open work, you should have cashed in on Gauff winning Quarter 4. I had 3.5 units to win 2.5 units on that play, and I also have another 1.5 units on Gauff to win the tournament at +550. I gave all of that out in my pre-tournament futures piece. Well, if you did tail those plays, there’s nothing to do here. I’m very confident in Gauff defeating Boisson, so I wouldn’t even suggest hedging. The play for Gauff to win the quarter means that we have a free roll on the American to win the tournament. It was almost a baked-in hedge.
If you didn’t join me on those Gauff futures, I understand you might want a play in this match. If that’s the case, I’d suggest taking Gauff -4.5 games at -150.
I’m a little nervous about how Gauff’s serve is going to hold up in an insane atmosphere. This French crowd is going to do everything it can to get to Gauff, and it doesn’t take much to get in her head. She had 10 double faults against Madison Keys in the quarterfinals, and she turns in serving performances like that all the time. So, with a rowdy crowd willing to say anything to help Boisson, you never know how Gauff is going to hold up. But I ultimately just think the difference between these two players is massive. So, I’m not exactly sure how Boisson is going to frustrate Gauff with her actual play.
Gauff hadn’t dropped a set before earning a 6-7 (6), 6-4, 6-1 win over Keys last round, and she played better players than Boisson. Marie Bouzkova and Ekaterina Alexandrova would both be favored over Boisson on any surface. Also, Gauff really could have won in straight sets against Keys, too. She had a set point in the first set, but she wasn’t able to cash in.
Boisson is going to have a lot of adrenaline from the crowd, so maybe she comes out pumping some big serves and baseline shots — especially from the forehand wing. But Gauff is one of the best returners in the world, and she’s also one of the best baseline defenders in the world. She’s just a world-class athlete that makes you hit a million extra shots, and I don’t see Boisson doing a good job of dealing with that. The 22-year-old was able to beat Andreeva and Jessica Pegula here, and you can’t take that away from her. But she has also played only eight tour-level matches in her career. At some point, you’d expect the moment to be too big for her. Perhaps that’s here, in a prime let-down spot.
It also feels like it’s only a matter of time before Gauff turns in a complete performance. The American made the finals in both Madrid and Rome, but those runs were filled with shaky matches. She’s capable of putting everything together and breaking through. That breakthrough might have started when she flipped the script against Keys, and perhaps it’ll continue with a convincing win over Boisson. For as disappointing as Gauff can be, she rarely loses to players outside of the Top 50.
This just feels like a match in which Gauff’s defense and athleticism will overwhelm the Frenchwoman. And if Gauff happens to find her serve or forehand, this has the potential to get ugly. That’s why I like the game spread. If Boisson happens to steal a set, I can’t imagine it wouldn’t be in a tight one. But I can very easily see Gauff serving up a breadstick — or a baguette — at some point.
Lean: Gauff -4.5 Games (-150)
