Jannik Sinner is looking to win his third Grand Slam title in a row, but there’s a massive obstacle in his way: 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic — the greatest athlete to ever hold a tennis racquet. This is one of the two matchups we’ll get in the semifinals of the 2025 French Open, and this isn’t a match you’ll want to miss on Friday, June 6th. Djokovic just beat Alexander Zverev in convincing fashion, earning a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 victory over the German. The 38-year-old is now out to prove that he can beat another elite youngster on his way to major No. 25, but this isn’t just any talented, young player. This is the gold standard. With that in mind, keep reading for a Djokovic versus Sinner betting preview.
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Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, June 4th at 10:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -450, Djokovic +330
Spread: Sinner -5.5 Games (-140), Djokovic +5.5 Games (+105)
Total: Over 36.5 Games (-115), Under 36.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France
When: Friday, June 6th
Channel: TNT / HBO Max
Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner Predictions
When I first saw this matchup, I really wanted to take Djokovic to win a set. Unfortunately, the best price I found on that was -177. However, you can take Over 3.5 sets at -140, and the two plays are very similar — unless you think Djokovic winning in straight sets is a possibility. So, that’s the way I’m playing this intoxicating semi-final showdown. But I will note that I’m not going crazy with my units here. I have futures on Sinner (+250 – 2 units) and Djokovic (10-1 – 0.5 units) to win the French Open, so I’m in decent shape regardless of who wins — and I sure hope some people tailed those plays.
With Sinner being as high as a -476 favorite to win this match, along with a 6.5-game favorite on the spread, let’s assume the Italian is going to win a set. I know that making assumptions puts me at risk of looking like a you-know-what, but it’s best not to waste time talking about why Sinner will win at least one set. He’s the best player in the world, he’s in good form coming into this match and his straight-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz in Rome marked the first time since 2023 that he failed to win a set in a match. Now, that previous straight-set loss did come at the hands of Djokovic, so take that how you will. But Sinner was a different player in 2023 than he was in 2024, and he looks better in 2025 than he did last season. I like his chances of putting together an hour of clean ball-striking, overwhelming aggression and flawless play as both a server and a returner.
With that out of the way, what about Djokovic? Why should we believe in the 38-year-old to take a set off a player that looks like the new — and stronger — version of the 24-time Grand Slam champ? There’s a few reasons.
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Sinner still has to prove he’s Sinner on this surface. I absolutely love his clay-court game, which is why I have a big future on him to lift this trophy. But Sinner hasn’t won a clay-court title since 2022. And for as good as his skill set is, the most uncomfortable he looks anywhere is getting in and out of corners on the dirt. Perhaps that will change. But Djokovic is one of the greatest tacticians in the history of this sport. His entire game plan heading into this match will be testing Sinner’s legs.
Speaking of Sinner’s legs, look out for the Djokovic dropshot. Gill Gross, who does unbelievable work on the Monday Match Analysis podcast, noted after the Zverev match that Djokovic hit more dropshots (36) than second serves (34) in the quarterfinals. That’s an outrageous stat, but it’s one to keep an eye on here. We actually saw Alexander Bublik have some success hitting dropshots against Sinner last round, and the Italian looked somewhat gassed midway through that match. Djokovic will surely take note of that and look to get Sinner on the move here. The Serbian isn’t going to want to get into a pure shot-for-shot battle with Sinner from the back of the court. Djokovic would need to use too much energy to summon the power required to even make Sinner uncomfortable. Meanwhile, the Italian has effortless power, and his normal rally-balls will look harder than Djokovic’s haymakers. That’s not a battle Djokovic can win. He has to stretch Sinner vertically and horizontally, and he has the game to do it.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the Djokovic serve-and-volley game. One of the reasons I felt so confident watching Djokovic face Zverev — and part of the reason I still like him in the head-to-head matchup with Alcaraz — is that the Serbian’s slider out wide, followed by a quick rush to the net, is one of the most unstoppable plays in tennis. And that’s especially true on this surface. Of course, Sinner is more likely to find a way to pass Djokovic than anyone, but I do think the 38-year-old will ultimately win out with that move in key moments.
I also just trust Djokovic’s physical and mental makeup in a best-of-five setting. He’s never going to believe he’s out of this match, and he’ll feel better about his chances of getting on the board the longer the match goes. Sinner’s actual tennis is bordering on perfect, but his fitness remains a question mark. As previously mentioned, he definitely looked winded from tracking down Bublik’s dropshots. Also, I’m not sure he even looked like he was fully fit when he faced Alcaraz in Rome. All of that came after an Australian Open title run that felt like it was full of close-calls when it came to his fitness, so it’s hard to rule out the possibility of Djokovic having more in the tank come Set 3.
Let’s also toss in the revenge and motivation factors. Sinner has won two matches in a row against Djokovic, and you know that the 38-year-old is desperate to change that. That’s just how he’s wired. Djokovic is one of the most insane competitors in the history of sports, and he’s going to be fueled by the losses when he gets out there here. He’s also determined to win his 25th Grand Slam title, and this might be his best chance to do it. He’s getting Sinner on his worst surface, and he beat Alcaraz on clay the last time they played — which was in the gold medal match at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Well, when Djokovic is motivated, he can play with anyone.
Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-140)
