On Friday, March 14th, some of the top women in the world clash in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. In the first match, Mirra Andreeva will take on defending champion Iga Swiatek. In the second match, we’ll see a rematch of the 2025 Australian Open final, as Madison Keys will look to beat Aryna Sabalenka again. With that in mind, now is a good time to get into some tennis best bets. So, keep reading for my thoughts on both matches. Also, make sure you head over to the picks page, as Gill Alexander’s plays will be there. You’ll also get some of my picks for some smaller events.
Mirra Andreeva vs. Iga Swiatek
I was able to grab Andreeva at +167 on Thursday and I added it to the picks page, but I’d play this down to +130. Swiatek has won two of the last three titles in Indian Wells, so we know the Pole plays some great tennis here. However, she had also won three straight titles on the slow courts in Doha before Andreeva beat her 6-3, 6-3 in Qatar. This just feels like a matchup that has the potential to go poorly for Swiatek until she makes some improvements in how she deals with the mental aspect of the game. On slower courts, Swiatek can generally rely on her elite court coverage and big topspin forehand to control points. Then, once she sees an opponent the slightest bit out of position, she finds her time to pounce with a winner. However, Andreeva might be the best mover on the WTA Tour right now, and the 17-year-old is going to make Swiatek hit a few more extra balls than usual. That could get to Swiatek and lead to some unforced errors.
We have seen time and time again that Swiatek is capable of beating herself when she doesn’t like what’s going on in a match, and I have a strong feeling that Andreeva is going to eventually bring out the worst in her. On top of Andreeva’s world-class counterpunching ability, she’s also an awesome returner. So, she’ll have Swiatek under constant pressure when the Pole is serving. And Andreeva has also added legitimate muscle and strength, helping her become more dangerous when it comes to her own serve. She’s also hitting more winners from the forehand side.
I’m just at the point where I believe the only player that should ever be a big favorite over Andreeva is Sabalenka. That’s not to say that Sabalenka is much better than Swiatek, but the Belarusian has proven that her brute strength is a little much for Andreeva at this point in her career. But the 17-year-old hasn’t run into that problem against anybody else.
I’ll also note that it might be time for some Andreeva futures. She’s 13-1 to win the French Open, 19-1 to win Wimbledon and 16-1 to win the US Open. I’d look into shopping around for some better numbers, but I don’t hate the idea of taking all three right now. I think that maiden Grand Slam title is coming soon.
Bet: Andreeva ML (+167)
Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka
I have a future on Sabalenka to win this tournament at +450, so I won’t personally be playing anything here. I think there’s a decent enough chance that Sabalenka wins this match, and I’m just not prepared to start hedging until a potential final. However, I will note that I think Keys would be the play if I didn’t already have a rooting interest here.
Keys got off to a somewhat slow start to this tournament, needing three sets to beat Elise Mertens in the Round of 32 and then another three sets to beat Donna Vekic in the Round of 16. However, that was kind of expected with the Australian Open champion having not played since leaving Melbourne. There was always going to be a little on-court rust for Keys, but she decided the extra rest was worth it. Well, that proved to be the right call as she pummeled a red-hot Belinda Bencic in the quarterfinals, winning 6-1, 6-1 in a match that was never in doubt.
It’s just clear that Keys is a completely different person in 2025. The American had already started to become a better returner in previous seasons, but she is better than ever in that regard now. And whether it’s the racquet change she made from 2024 to 2025 or just a stylistic change she made with her coaching team, she’s missing less neutral balls than she ever has in her career. The result is the same powerful Keys that rose the ranks and become one of the best players in the world, but with less of the mistakes that cost her big titles. Now, she’s firmly in the top tier in the women’s game, and seeing big plus-money odds next to her name feels wrong.
Sabalenka was able to grind out a win over Liudmila Samsonova on Thursday, but she was definitely struggling with the conditions. The problem was that Samsonova, who actually jumped out to an early lead, had an even rougher time with them. She ultimately imploded and gifted Sabalenka a win, which wasn’t that surprising considering Samsonova plays her best tennis in quick, stable conditions. But I’m not sure Sabalenka will be as lucky against Keys. The American can match her power from the baseline, but she has been better than Sabalenka as a server this year. She has also played a little cleaner from the baseline. And on top of all of that, she’ll have the crowd in her corner. That said, while it pains me to say this, if you’re not already on the Sabalenka train, you might want to consider a small play on Keys.
LEAN: Keys ML (+140)
