It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible throughout the 2025 season. Over the next two weeks, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells best bets for Saturday, March 8th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. Gill Alexander posts his best bets there. I’ll also occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving.
Nuno Borges vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov will probably find his game at some point in the near future, as we’re not too far removed from a spectacular 2024 season from the Bulgarian. But for now, the 33-year-old is a little hard to trust. Dimitrov comes into this match after having retired in three of his last four matches, and the one match he finished was a 6-4, 6-4 loss to Jiri Lehecka in Doha. We just haven’t seen the Bulgarian looking healthy or confident since the start of January, and I’m not sure he’s going to be able to quickly put things together in the tricky conditions in the desert.
It’s hard enough to play your way into form on a good day, but doing so on a court that is very hard to hit through while also dealing with significant wind makes it more challenging. Dimitrov is also facing an opponent that demands you play at a high level. Borges isn’t a player with one clear strength, but he does everything pretty well. He’s solid as both a server and returner, he hits deep, penetrating shots from the baseline and he also does a good job of covering the court. All of that actually helped Borges beat Dimitrov in four sets at the 2024 Australian Open, and that version of the Bulgarian was a lot better than the one we have seen this year.
With all of that in mind, I’m fading Dimitrov and putting some faith in a player that rarely no-shows. I wasn’t particularly thrilled with the way Borges played against Arthur Rinderknech last round, but he at least got his feet wet playing on these new courts. Just make sure you try and play this at FanDuel. That’ll be something you hear from me a lot in matches with somebody that has dealt with injuries.
Bet: Borges ML (-109 – 1.5 units)
Gael Monfils vs. Sebastian Korda
The logic behind this pick is similar to the previous one. It has been a long time since Korda has been able to stay on a tennis court and play at a high level. We actually haven’t seen the American since February 10th, when he lost to Otto Virtanen in Marseille. And that was Korda’s first match since losing a tight five-setter against Aleksandar Vukic at the Australian Open. Well, two matches in two months really doesn’t give you a chance to find your game, and this also happens to be a very tough opponent.
Monfils is now 10-3 since the start of the 2025 season. The 38-year-old has also earned some impressive wins, including a four-set victory over Taylor Fritz at the Australian Open. Monfils also happened to look excellent in a 6-4, 6-4 win over Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round here. These courts can bring out the best in Monfils, as he’s so athletic that he can really track down everything on a slower court. That then forces players to aim for very small targets, and that feels like something that could happen here. Korda is a player that can be mistake-prone, as he often aims to be perfect with his ball-striking. But that doesn’t fly on a shrunken court, so don’t be surprised if Monfils extracts a lot of errors out of him.
Bet: Monfils ML (-133 – 1.5 units)
Mackenzie McDonald vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Cerundolo is making the transition over from the Golden Swing, and moving from clay to hard courts is tough — even on slower hard courts. That made him a player I was looking to fade right when I saw this draw, and I happen to think McDonald is a dangerous opponent for him right now. Not only is McDonald coming off a big win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina here, but he also just played some good tennis in a run to the finals at the Challenger-level event in San Diego last week.
McDonald has had a lot of time to get used to slower hard courts, along with some windy conditions. So, I expect him to be ready to go right from the jump here. McDonald also happens to be a tough on-court matchup for Cerundolo. The American is very fast and uses that speed to make opponents hit a lot of extra balls. That’s going to be an issue for Cerundolo, who has a lot of power but can also be rather erratic. McDonald also hits flat shots deep in the court, which can rush opponents. Cerundolo isn’t a player that likes to be rushed.
If Cerundolo shows up and plays his best tennis, he should find a way to win this match. But this play is us banking on Cerundolo struggling to find that after multiple weeks on clay. And it helps that he’s playing against a guy that makes it hard on you to get comfortable.
Bet: McDonald ML (+118)
Sofia Kenin vs. Daria Kasatkina
When doing the Beating The Book post-draw preview with Gill, I noted that Kenin has a chance of making a deep run here. Well, part of that was this winnable matchup with Kasatkina. After a decent performance in Doha, Kasatkina went to Dubai and lost 6-1, 6-4 to an out-of-form Sorana Cirstea. In that match, Kasatkina wasn’t making any first serves, and she played big points very poorly. Well, it’s going to be hard for Kasatkina to make a lot of first serves in these conditions. She struggles with her accuracy in perfect conditions, but it’s very windy and unique at Indian Wells. And if she consistently gives Kenin looks at second serves, the American is going to tee off on them. Kenin isn’t as crisp of a ball striker as she was when she won a Grand Slam title, but she still smacks the ball. And she found a little something in the Middle East herself, winning seven of the 10 matches she played. Then, Kenin came here and beat Maddison Inglis 6-2, 6-1.
Kenin simply isn’t far off the level that made her one of the best players in the women’s game in 2020, and she has the potential to be a disturbance in this tournament. She just needs to find a way through here, but it’s hard not to like her chances. Kasatkina might do a lot of things well, including moving along the baseline and getting a lot of balls back. But she also puts them up into high strike zones. Kenin is going to love that. In fact, Kenin beat Kasatkina 6-3, 6-4 in Tokyo last year. That was when the American was playing a lot worse.
Bet: Kenin ML (-119)
