It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible throughout the 2025 season. Over the next week or so, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells best bets for Sunday, March 9th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. Gill Alexander posts his best bets there. I’ll also occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving.
Clara Tauson vs. Mirra Andreeva
Andreeva beat Tauson in the finals of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships a couple of weeks ago. That was Andreeva’s first career 1000-level title, and it’ll now be interesting to see her go back to work against Tauson. I actually don’t want to put too much weight into the 7-6 (1), 6-1 win that Andreeva earned over Tauson, as the Dane clearly wasn’t healthy and the conditions weren’t all that similar. However, I still like Andreeva to win by a decent margin here.
Tauson is a player that wins with big serves and bigger groundstrokes, but she’s not much of a mover and doesn’t have a lot of layers to her game. She very much likes to stand still and deliver powerful shots as often as possible. Well, at Indian Wells, the courts should slow down everything she throws Andreeva’s way, making it easier for the 17-year-old to get serves back and extend rallies. And any rallies that last longer than 0-4 shots should favor the youngster quite a bit.
Andreeva also happens to have enough power as a server and baseliner to make Tauson uncomfortable. So, I’d be surprised if Andreeva can’t win a lopsided set at some point in this match, making a cover somewhat likely.
Bet: Andreeva -3.5 Games (-110)
Alex Michelsen vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev looked good in a 6-2, 6-2 win over Bu Yunchaokete in his first match, and the back-to-back BNP Paribas Open runner-up will be hoping to replicate that performance against Michelsen. However, facing the talented 20-year-old will be a whole different beast for the Russian. Michelsen has the type of game to disrupt Medvedev, as he’s a big server that is also pretty reliable from the baseline.
With Medvedev’s serve no longer being a serious weapon, it’s just hard for him to wipe the court with high-level players. Well, Michelsen is becoming one very quickly. Michelsen’s serve should be able to hold up nicely in this match, even against one of the game’s great returners. I also like the way the American matches up from the baseline. Michelsen does have the ability to hit clean winners, and he likes to go big here and there. However, he has also shown a willingness to grind out long points. He also happens to have a very nice backhand, so he won’t be afraid of going backhand-to-backhand with Medvedev.
Ultimately, it wouldn’t surprise me if Medvedev leans on his big-match experience to get across the finish line here, but this should be a close match. Michelsen has the goods, he has the game for these conditions and the crowd will be firmly in his corner.
Bet: Michelsen +1.5 Sets (-140 – 1.5 units) & Michelsen ML (+230 – 0.5 units)
Ugo Humbert vs. Holger Rune
Rune is 3-0 against Humbert at the ATP level. One of those wins was a 6-3, 6-2 victory at Indian Wells in 2022. Of course, Humbert is a much better player than he was a couple of years ago, and his top-15 ranking backs that up. However, I can’t get on board with Humbert being favored in this match. Rune is the better all-around player, has the head-to-head edge and also happens to be a bit better in these conditions.
The real concern here is not knowing which version of Rune we’re backing. The Dane had failed to pick up a win in three of his previous four matches before arriving in the desert and earning a 6-2, 6-4 win over Corentin Moutet. However, Rune insists he was dealing with an illness for a couple of weeks, and perhaps there’s some truth to that. But overall, I’m just not in the business of turning down Rune at this number. Humbert has a better serve than Rune, but that might be where the advantages end for the Frenchman. And Rune should have a decent shot at getting Humbert’s serve back in these slower conditions. From there, he’ll be able to lean on his more reliable baseline game.
Bet: Rune ML (+128)
Marcos Giron vs. Alexei Popyrin
Giron is coming off one of the biggest wins of his life, as he beat Casper Ruud in a three-setter in the Round of 64. Sometimes fading a player after a big win like that is a smart move. However, it’s hard to shake that these conditions are brutal for Popyrin, who also happened to be struggling before arriving at this tournament. Popyrin really doesn’t have much outside of a big serve and a booming forehand, but these courts neutralize those weapons a bit. Meanwhile, Giron is a baseline grinder that is going to force Popyrin to be very precise with his shots. So, with the Australian in poor form, this might be a tough matchup for him.
Giron should also have a massive home-court advantage in this one, as the crowd absolutely loves him here. That will only be amplified after the upset victory over Ruud. Let’s see how Popyrin deals with the environment.
Bet: Giron ML (-135)
