The final clay-court 1000-level event of the 2025 tennis season is here. The top players on the ATP and WTA Tours are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. This is a gritty tournament that very much plays like the French Open, which is why Rafael Nadal won this thing 10 times in his career. And to a lesser extent, that’s why Iga Swiatek has won the tournament in three of the last four years. With that in mind, I’m excited to get into it. Keep reading for some tournament futures for the action in Italy, and make sure you come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. I’ll be handicapping the men’s and women’s action all throughout the event. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia Women’s Futures
Aryna Sabalenka To Win Quarter 1 (-140 – 2 units): I’m always a little worried about what winning a tournament means when looking at the following week. It’s very difficult to make a deep run at one event and then do the same at another. However, Sabalenka is operating on another level right now. Heading into this tournament, the Belarusian’s 2025 Elo rating is a WTA-best 2206.9. That’s over 100 better than second place, and Sabalenka’s traditional numbers are just as good. This season, Sabalenka is 31-5 and has won three titles already. Sabalenka has taken her return game to new heights, as evidenced by a career-high break percentage of 44.3%. When you combine that with her elite serve, her powerful baseline game and her continued evolution when it comes to variety, she’s now the toughest player to beat on pretty much any surface. So, while I’m not sure she’s going to win this event, I do find it hard to imagine her failing to win her quarter.
Iga Swiatek To Win Quarter 4 (-160 – 2.5 units) & Win Tournament (+230): I’m buying the dip on Swiatek. With how people are talking about her, you’d think she was bordering on .500 on the season. Nope. She’s 26-8 since the start of 2025. And she’s now about to play two of her best tournaments. Swiatek has won the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in three of the last four years. She has always been impossible to beat in slower clay conditions, where she’s impenetrable along the baseline and her huge topspin forehand allows her to completely dictate play. Well, I know things haven’t looked pretty over the last few weeks, but I can see her finding her game here. Last year, Swiatek was closer to +110 to win this event and she ultimately did exactly that. So, at +230, I can’t help but take her. And realistically, the only player I can see beating her before the semifinals is Elina Svitolina, who Swiatek should be able to handle on these courts.
QUICK NOTE: If it becomes available anywhere, I’d love a play on Anna Kalinskaya to reach the quarterfinals. She played really well in Charleston, where she earned a straight-set win over Madison Keys. Then, Keys got revenge against Kalinskaya in Madrid, winning 7-5, 7-6 (3) in a nail-biter. But those were conditions that strongly favored the American. Well, we could see a third meeting between Kalinskaya and Keys in the Round of 32 in Rome, and I’d like the Russian’s chances on slower courts. I’d also take her over Paula Badosa or Naomi Osaka in the Round of 16, which would put her in the quarters.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia Men’s Futures
Matteo Berrettini To Win Quarter 1 (14-1 – 0.5 units): Only seven players on the ATP Tour have a higher clay-court Elo rating than Berrettini’s 1940.1. That said, if Berrettini has recovered from the abdomen injury that forced him to retire after losing the first set of his match against Jack Draper in Madrid, he’s going to be a player to keep an eye on. Berrettini was born in Rome, so these fans absolutely love him. And I tend to think he has a pretty reasonable draw. Of course, Berrettini might have to face Casper Ruud in the Round of 32. But Ruud is coming off the biggest title of his career, and a letdown performance is very much in the cards. We see it all the time. And if Berrettini gets by Ruud, he should end up in the quarterfinals. At that point, this play will come down to the form of Sinner. If the world No. 1 isn’t dealing with any court rust whatsoever, he should be able to beat Berrettini. But if he’s way off his peak level, Berrettini is going to have a shot — especially on this surface. Either way, at 14-1, Berrettini is worth a flier.
Carlos Alcaraz To Win Quarter 3 (-140 – 2.5 units) & Win Tournament (+275): I didn’t expect to be on Alcaraz heading into this tournament. However, if his team is fully confident in his health, it’s hard not to back him with this draw. If Alcaraz’s road to the quarterfinals ends up going by seeding, he’s looking at matches against Yoshihito Nishioka, Alex Michelsen and Grigor Dimitrov. I’m not worried about him losing any of those matches. The quarterfinals are a little trickier. He could see Jack Draper, who beat the brakes off him at Indian Wells, or Holger Rune, who beat him in straight sets in Barcelona. But I feel both players enter this tournament with more question marks than you’d like. Draper just came off a run to the final in Madrid, so he might not have the mental or physical freshness he needs to go deep again. Also, he definitely benefited from the altitude at that event, where his big serve and ability to go big from the baseline were bigger weapons than they’ll be here. As for Rune, there’s no guarantee he’ll even get out of the second or third round. He has had a lot of trouble finishing matches recently. And if he does somehow set up another match against Alcaraz, I can’t envision him playing another A+ match to beat his good friend.
As far as the tournament goes, I’m expecting the winner of this event to come from the bottom of the draw. So, if Alcaraz gets through his first five matches, I’d be surprised if he loses the sixth. The only thing that would really spoil that is the best version of Sinner.
Lorenzo Musetti To Win Quarter 4 (+360) & Win Tournament (28-1 – 0.25 units): Since the start of the European clay-court swing, Musetti is 9-2 with wins over Jiri Lehecka, Berrettini, Stefanos Tsitsipas (twice) and Alex de Minaur (twice). He also was right there in losses to Alcaraz and Draper. In the Monte-Carlo final against the Spaniard, he simply ran out of steam after a grueling week of nothing but three-set battles. Against Draper, in Madrid, the Brit had a little more in key moments, and a lot of that had to do with how easily he was able to win points with his serve. Well, we’re back to a slower, grittier clay court, where Musetti’s game is just relentless. He’s one of the best baseline defenders in the world, he hits big, topspin-heavy shots from both wings and he finds angles that nobody else can. On top of that, he continues to look like one of the best returners in the sport, and higher bounces are only going to help him there. Combining all of that with the fact that Musetti is also playing at home makes it hard not to like the idea of playing him to make another run this week. He’s becoming a constant presence late in tournaments, and he has to like his draw here. I don’t see Musetti running into real trouble until he faces either Arthur Fils or Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. That’s why I’m playing Musetti to win the quarter. But I’m also sprinkling him to win the event. He has been knocking on the door of a massive result for two years now. Why can’t he do it in Rome?
