The final clay-court 1000-level event of the 2025 tennis season is here. The top players on the ATP and WTA Tours are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. This is a gritty tournament that very much plays like the French Open, which is why Rafael Nadal won this thing 10 times in his career. And to a lesser extent, that’s why Iga Swiatek has won the tournament in three of the last four years. With that in mind, I’m excited to get into it. Keep reading for some tournament futures for the action in Italy, and make sure you come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. I’ll be handicapping the men’s and women’s action all throughout the event. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia Women’s Futures
Aryna Sabalenka To Win Quarter 1 (-140 – 2 units): I’m always a little worried about what winning a tournament means when looking at the following week. It’s very difficult to make a deep run at one event and then do the same at another. However, Sabalenka is operating on another level right now. Heading into this tournament, the Belarusian’s 2025 Elo rating is a WTA-best 2206.9. That’s over 100 better than second place, and Sabalenka’s traditional numbers are just as good. This season, Sabalenka is 31-5 and has won three titles already. Sabalenka has taken her return game to new heights, as evidenced by a career-high break percentage of 44.3%. When you combine that with her elite serve, her powerful baseline game and her continued evolution when it comes to variety, she’s now the toughest player to beat on pretty much any surface. So, while I’m not sure she’s going to win this event, I do find it hard to imagine her failing to win her quarter.
Iga Swiatek To Win Quarter 4 (-160 – 2.5 units) & Win Tournament (+230): I’m buying the dip on Swiatek. With how people are talking about her, you’d think she was bordering on .500 on the season. Nope. She’s 26-8 since the start of 2025. And she’s now about to play two of her best tournaments. Swiatek has won the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in three of the last four years. She has always been impossible to beat in slower clay conditions, where she’s impenetrable along the baseline and her huge topspin forehand allows her to completely dictate play. Well, I know things haven’t looked pretty over the last few weeks, but I can see her finding her game here. Last year, Swiatek was closer to +110 to win this event and she ultimately did exactly that. So, at +230, I can’t help but take her. And realistically, the only player I can see beating her before the semifinals is Elina Svitolina, who Swiatek should be able to handle on these courts.
QUICK NOTE: If it becomes available anywhere, I’d love a play on Anna Kalinskaya to reach the quarterfinals. She played really well in Charleston, where she earned a straight-set win over Madison Keys. Then, Keys got revenge against Kalinskaya in Madrid, winning 7-5, 7-6 (3) in a nail-biter. But those were conditions that strongly favored the American. Well, we could see a third meeting between Kalinskaya and Keys in the Round of 32 in Rome, and I’d like the Russian’s chances on slower courts. I’d also take her over Paula Badosa or Naomi Osaka in the Round of 16, which would put her in the quarters.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia Men’s Futures
Coming soon.
