On Monday, August 18th, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will meet in the Cincinnati Open final. This will be the fourth final of the year between these two, as they clashed in Rome before meeting at the French Open and Wimbledon. Tennis fans have been wanting more of this rivalry and they’re getting it in Costco quantities.
I wasn’t planning on writing anything this week, as I’m currently on a short paternity leave. However, I’m not in the business of ignoring Sinner-Alcaraz battles. So, while this is going to be a little shorter than some of my previous Sinner-Alcaraz previews, I encourage you to keep reading for some quick thoughts and a best bet.
I also post more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Saturday, August 16th at 11:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -175, Alcaraz +135
Spread: Sinner -2.5 Games (-110), Alcaraz +2.5 Games (-125)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-130), Under 22.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: Lindner Family Tennis Center in Cincinnati, Ohio
When: Monday, August 18th
Channel: Tennis Channel
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
With Sinner having earned a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 win over Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final, the Spaniard’s recent head-to-head dominance shouldn’t be a factor when diving into this match. Sinner exorcised those demons. Instead, the focus needs to be on the stylistic battle, the tournament conditions and recent form. All of it favors Sinner.
In terms of style, Sinner’s combination of mistake-free play and heavy hitting from the baseline can be rough for Alcaraz. Of course, the Spaniard did win five matches in a row against the Italian, so it’s a little hard to say that. But Sinner had three championship points in the Roland Garros final. He was the better player in that match. The only thing that changed at Wimbledon was the ending, with Sinner finding a way to get across the finish line in four — and he really should have won in three.
Alcaraz’s shot making from the back of the court can be scintillating, and the Spaniard has improved as both a server and a decision maker this year. The problem is that he still has a lot of growing to do in both departments, and we have seen some of that in Cincinnati. Alcaraz was sloppy in a three-set nail-biter against Andrey Rublev, and he didn’t look great against a wounded Alexander Zverev in the semifinals.
Alcaraz is making 64.2% of his first serves in 2025, but he has made 61.6% or fewer of his first serves in four of his five matches this tournament. We have also seen some sloppy errors out of the 22-year-old, who has looked rushed, at times. He has also looked impatient.
Alcaraz just isn’t that comfortable on hard courts, and that’s especially true with faster ones. He’s less dangerous from the baseline, and his variety isn’t as much of a weapon. Meanwhile, Sinner absolutely thrives on hard courts, where he is 37-1 over the last 52 weeks. His serve is more lethal on these courts, plus the weight of his normal rally-balls is devastating for opponents. He can push them far beyond the baseline without really putting himself at risk of hitting unforced errors. From there, the court is open for Sinner to blast winners. He can also come to the net, which he has been more willing to do recently.
In Cincinnati, it’s just hard to see Alcaraz getting his lick back, especially with the way both of them are playing. Sinner has been much sharper since arriving in Ohio, with TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations having Shot Quality scores that favor the Italian when it comes to returning, forehands and backhands. That’s hard to ignore, as I also view Sinner as the better server.
As long as Alcaraz continues to get better as a spot server, while also taking less unnecessary risks in longer rallies, there will eventually be spots in which I’ll look to back the Spaniard over the Italian. I don’t think the gap between the two is that big. However, I don’t see Alcaraz being the rightful favorite over Sinner on anything but natural surfaces. That said, while -161 odds might seem steep for Sinner, I think a 61.7% implied probability for the Italian winning this match is low. On a quicker court, where Sinner has proven to be the best in the world with two Australian Open titles, I view this as more of a 70-30 matchup.
Bet: Sinner ML (-161 – 1.5 units)
