On Sunday, September 7th, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will clash in the 2025 US Open final. Sinner is looking to win back-to-back titles in New York, and he’s also going for his fourth hard-court Slam in a row. This would also be his third major title of the year. However, that last one will fuel Alcaraz more than anything, as a win in New York would put the Spaniard and Sinner on level playing field for Grand Slams in 2025. Alcaraz is also eager to prove that he has what it takes to win another hard-court major. He hasn’t won one since he won this event back in 2022. Overall, there’s always a lot on the line when these two rivals meet, but this battle in Arthur Ashe Stadium has a little extra juice. After all, the No. 1 ranking in the world will be up for grabs. So, let’s get into it with a Sinner vs. Alcaraz betting preview.
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Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Saturday, September 6th at 1:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -135, Alcaraz +110
Spread: Sinner -1.5 Games (-115), Alcaraz +1.5 Games (-115)
Total: Over 40.5 Games (-110), Under 40.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Sunday, September 7th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
Friday night, as soon as odds were posted for this match, I posted a play on Sinner (-125) to the VSiN picks page. Since then, there has been some early sharp action on the Italian. Our VSiN betting splits show that most bettors are backing Alcaraz, but Sinner has gone from a -125 favorite to a -135 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s some minor reverse line movement, but reverse line movement nonetheless. So, you’re now going to need to pay up a little more in order to take Sinner, but I’d be comfortable taking him at anything up to -150.
The reality is that these two were set to clash in Cincinnati a few weeks ago, and the best price available on Sinner before that match started was -195. Well, unless you want to read too much into Alcaraz’s 5-0 start against an under-the-weather Sinner in that final, we’re getting quite the bargain on the Italian here.
Of course, there are some reasons Alcaraz looks a little better coming into this one. For starters, the Spaniard hasn’t dropped a single set on his way to the final, and he has faced some good players in Jiri Lehecka and Novak Djokovic in his last two matches. Alcaraz’s serve has been dynamite through two weeks, and I even thought he did a good job of returning Djokovic’s slider serve to the forehand side in the semifinals. That has been his kryptonite against both Djokovic and Sinner, so it’s clear Juan Carlos Ferrero, and the entire Alcaraz team, has gotten through to him there. Meanwhile, Sinner has looked dominant against some opponents, as he made Alexei Popyrin, Alexander Bublik and Lorenzo Musetti look like children in his straight-set wins over them. However, he also struggled with Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime, beating both in four-set matches that were a little more troublesome than the scores would suggest. On top of that, Sinner has had some struggles with his health, including a stomach issue that forced him to leave the court and receive treatment in the semifinals.
Considering all of that, it would’t be unfair to say that Alcaraz is in better form, or that he’s much better suited for the physicality of a best-of-five match — especially if it ends up being humid. The issue is that I still think there’s a pretty wide gap between these two on faster surfaces. That’s why the odds were so lopsided in Cincinnati. Sure, that tournament plays a touch faster than this one, but these are still conditions in which Sinner’s power and precision can rush Alcaraz. And we kind of just saw it when they played at Wimbledon, where Sinner won in four sets — and probably should have won in three.
If Sinner just has a solid day as a server, there aren’t many advantages Alcaraz will have out there. Obviously, the Spaniard’s variety is an asset on all surfaces, but it’s a little less valuable here. So, my question is: Can Alcaraz find a way to change up the height of the ball he’s giving Sinner, or move the Italian to uncomfortable positions on the court, without racking up unforced errors? I’m not sure. While Alcaraz didn’t drop a set against Djokovic in the semis, that was the sloppiest performance we have seen from the Spaniard in New York thus far. And if Djokovic brought his C+ game instead of his D game, he might have made that a match. That’s concerning as Alcaraz prepares to play the top player in the world, and somebody that has had his number in recent matchups — despite the fact that the Spaniard won one of them, in Roland Garros.
My only concern here is Sinner’s health. It is a little alarming that his body continues to let him down in high-leverage spots. But Sinner has been known to quickly put things to bed. In fact, at Wimbledon, he suffered what looked like a serious elbow injury in his match against Grigor Dimitrov, and there were actually rumors that he’d have to pull out of the event. But Sinner’s team worked some magic on him and he beat Ben Shelton in straight sets only two days later. Sinner is also no stranger to these stomach bugs, so you’d think his team would know how to manage them. And honestly, his team better figure it out. Sinner ignored all of the blowback that came with re-hiring Umberto Ferrara, the fitness coach that was partly responsible for the world No. 1’s positive doping test, in July. He must believe Ferrara has some magic in him. Let’s see it.
All in all, it’s just hard not to feel like anything in the -125 to -150 range is a massive discount after Sinner reached -200 in Cincinnati. That, combined with the way these two match up on the court, makes it hard not to hammer Sinner at his current number. At this point, we know that Sinner is going to have a great chance of winning as long as his serve doesn’t completely let him down, which it did as Alcaraz pulled away in the head-to-head series pre-Wimbledon. And while I did praise Alcaraz for how he handled Djokovic’s slider serve, I’m not completely convinced Sinner won’t find success targeting the Spaniard’s forehand. Djokovic simply didn’t have the juice on Friday, so that serve is going to look way different coming from the top-ranked player in the world.
Either way, how lucky are we to witness another one of these? It took forever for us to get our first Grand Slam final in this rivalry, which is what we saw when they met in Paris. Now, we’re set for a third major final in a row — and fifth final of the 2025 season. We’re getting Mission Impossible quantity and quality here, folks.
Bet: Sinner ML (-125 – 2 units)
