Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. Last week, the tour was stationed at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, players are hoping to do some damage on hard courts before switching over to clay. I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds. This has already been a crazy tournament, and I’ll continue providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Sunday, March 23rd.
Karen Khachanov vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov’s health is going to be a concern the rest of his career. He has just had a hard time finishing matches, with minor injuries here and there stalling his momentum. However, you can’t just fade him forever. With how well he played last year, and how good he looks right now, the best thing you can do is try and ignore the injuries. With a player of his caliber, that will be the most profitable way to handicap his matches. Sure, you might suffer the occasional bad loss, but he played 68 matches last year and 64 matches in 2023. There’s a decent chance he figures this all out, gets himself right and turns in another great season. And over the last few weeks, Dimitrov has looked a lot better than he did early in 2025. So, I’m treating him like he’s healthy heading into this meeting with Khachanov.
If Dimitrov is healthy, there are a lot of reasons to like him here. Over the last 52 weeks, Dimitrov has a higher hold percentage than Khachanov (84.7% vs. 82.3%). The Bulgarian also has a higher forehand quality (8.44 vs. 7.57), according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. Also, while Khachanov’s backhand quality is slightly higher (7.46 vs. 7.36), Dimitrov’s is a much better fit for these conditions. I absolutely love Khachanov’s down-the-line backhand, but Dimitrov’s low-bouncing slices are lethal on courts like these. There’s a reason he was in the finals here last year.
It’s also hard to ignore Dimitrov’s 5-1 record against Khachanov. Of course, the one win for the Russian was the most recent outing, with Khachanov beating Dimitrov in Paris last year. But that event has always served Khachanov well, and he was scorching hot this week. Dimitrov’s normal level is higher than Khachanov’s.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (-109 – 1.5 units)
Elise Mertens vs. Iga Swiatek
I’m taking a small shot on Mertens to win a set against Swiatek. I had a slight fade on the Pole in the second round, taking Caroline Garcia to win Over 5.5 games in that match. Garcia ended up giving Swiatek a ton of trouble, with the 23-year-old having to fight for a 6-2, 7-5 win. Now, I don’t see any reason Mertens can’t take it a step further.
Garcia might be a better server than Mertens when she’s at the peak of her powers, but the Belgian is more reliable right now. She actually has a 70.1% hold percentage over the last 52 weeks, which is a pretty strong number. Realistically, if Mertens just finds the box somewhat consistently, the quick courts will do the rest and make things a little hard on Swiatek. And Mertens is a much better baseliner than Garcia, so there is a pathway towards the Belgian competing in a similar way.
The reason to make a play like this is that Swiatek just isn’t herself on quicker courts. We have now seen it time and time again. If Swiatek is rushed in any way, there’s a slight chance she’s going to crumble and look human. Well, at +226 odds, it’s worth seeing if that will happen here. These courts have been playing insanely fast.
Bet: Mertens +1.5 Sets (+226 – 0.5 units)
Jaume Munar vs. Gael Monfils
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Casper Ruud
I like Monfils to get the better of Munar on Sunday, and I also think Ruud will beat Tabilo. However, rather than laying games or dealing with significant juice with the individual moneylines, I’m throwing them together for some plus-money odds.
Munar’s win over Daniil Medvedev might seem impressive, but the Russian looks more and more beatable by the year. His pushing from the baseline used to be a little more effective when he was a top-notch server, but it’s tough for him to beat good players now that he’s as breakable as he is now. So, Munar went into that match knowing that he would have his chances, and he never really backed down in the face of pressure. The problem with this matchup is that Monfils is a better server than Medvedev. He’s going to have a much easier time getting through his service games. Then, when Monfils is returning, his length and athleticism should help him get his racquet on a lot of Munar’s serves. On top of that, Monfils’ power from the baseline should be somewhat overwhelming for the Spaniard. And it doesn’t hurt that Monfils will have the crowd.
With Ruud, it’s just hard not to like his chances against Tabilo. The Chilean has been shockingly bad to start 2025, as he’s 2-7 since the new season began. A lot of those losses also happened to come on the Golden Swing, where Tabilo really should be able to find success. Tabilo just isn’t regularly racking up holds, and he’s already pretty below-average as a returner. So, even though Ruud hasn’t played his best tennis this year, the Norwegian should find a way through. Ruud should be feeling pretty energized and excited now that Carlos Alcaraz is out of the tournament. That draw is suddenly wide open.
PARLAY: Monfils ML & Ruud ML (+110 – 1.5 units)
Emma Raducanu vs. McCartney Kessler
While I’m a big fan of Emma Navarro, it was nice to see Raducanu win a big match. The 2021 US Open champion hasn’t had many positive moments on a tennis court since her big breakout run in New York. She has also dealt with some rough stuff off the court. However, it’s still hard to believe in Raducanu to put together back-to-back wins against quality opponents. Raducanu is just 5-6 since the start of the 2025 season, and she had lost five of her previous six matches before arriving in South Beach. Her game is just a bit of a mess, even though she does have the tools to be a great player. Well, Kessler is the type of opponent that can be tough to beat if you don’t know exactly how you want to play. She’s a very reliable baseliner that can ratchet things up and go big when she sees her opportunities. She’s also an absolute dog on the court, as she has some of the fire we have seen from Americans like Daneille Collins and Peyton Stearns. On top of all of that, Kessler played college tennis at the University of Florida, and she grew up nearby, in Georgia. These are the conditions she loves, and she’s going to have some serious crowd support.
Bet: Kessler ML (-118 – 1.5 units)
Amanda Anisimova vs. Mirra Andreeva
It’ll be interesting to see how some of the women that went deep at Indian Wells do in Miami. All of the men’s semifinalists have been eliminated already, and you have to think there will be some sort of impact on the women. Well, if Andreeva is going to be tripped up early, this could be the spot. Anisimova has a massive serve and a big baseline game. That makes her a dangerous player in low-bouncing conditions. Obviously, Andreeva is an elite mover and defender of the baseline, which is why she was just able to beat Aryna Sabalenka in the Indian Wells final. But these conditions are much faster than the ones Andreeva played in the weeks leading up to this event. That’s not to say that I don’t view Andreeva as an all-surface player, but her game won’t be at 100% on the fastest courts. It’ll be harder for her to return, she won’t have as much time to load up on her forehand side and she won’t have quite as many opportunities to put extra balls in play. When you combine that with the fact that there could be the slightest bit of fatigue settling in at some point soon, how can you not like Anisimova to simply win a set at plus-money odds? The American is 10-5 since the start of the 2025 season. She’s a very, very good player.
Bet: Anisimova +1.5 Sets (+104 – 1.5 units) & Anisimova ML (+269 – 0.5 units)
