Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. Last week, the tour was stationed at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, players are hoping to do some damage on hard courts before switching over to clay. I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds. This has already been a crazy tournament and I’ll continue providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Tuesday, March 25th.
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Casper Ruud
If you’ve been reading my tennis work for a while, you know I’m a big Ruud fan. While I understand he’s one of the weakest players to ever climb to No. 2 in the rankings, I also believe the Norwegian is extremely underrated because of how that all played out. He’s a damn good player, as evidenced by his three Grand Slam final appearances. However, Ruud is undoubtedly a player that can struggle with certain matchups, as he’s definitely at his best in slower conditions. Well, I can see this matchup presenting a lot of problems for him.
While Ruud is a little worse in quicker conditions, there might not be a tournament on the schedule that brings out a higher level than the Miami Open does for Cerundolo. He looked untouchable for most of his match against Tommy Paul on Sunday, and he went to the semifinals here in 2022. Coincidentally, it was Ruud that ended that run, winning 6-4, 6-1. However, the court speeds in Miami were much slower back then. Cerundolo was also very new to the scene. I think things will be different this time around.
Ruud’s big topspin forehand is one of the strongest weapons on the court whenever he’s out there, but Cerundolo has one of the biggest forehands on the ATP Tour. That’s going to make this an interesting dynamic, especially with Cerundolo’s ability to flatten it out and hit winners. There’s a reason Cerundolo is 4-2 against Ruud in the six matches they have played since that first meeting in South Beach. He’s one of the few players on tour that can win forehand-to-forehand battles against the Norwegian.
Ruud also looked like he was fading a bit late in his match against Alejandro Tabilo last round, and the Chilean was in poor form heading into that match. That’s not too surprising considering Ruud’s fitness was a concern heading into this event. I’m curious to see how much Ruud will have left in the tank here, and you always have to worry about whether the Norwegian is beginning to think about clay season. That’s when Ruud will really come alive. But Cerundolo is alive right now. He loves this event, the crowd loves him and he has a real shot at making a run to the semis — or further.
Bet: Cerundolo ML (-105)
Gael Monfils vs. Sebastian Korda
Monfils was able to outlast Korda in Indian Wells, winning 7-6 (2), 7-6 (4) in their early-round encounter. However, that was Korda’s first big match after an injury, and they played a night match in the desert. Those conditions were outrageously slow, which made it very difficult for Korda to hit through Monfils. That’s going to be a lot easier for the American to do in Miami, and that’s especially true with Monfils coming off a grueling three-set win over Jaume Munar. Monfils, as he often does, was limping around and laboring late in that match. Sometimes that’s something you can ignore with Monfils, who is a bit of a showman and likes to do what he can in the gamesmanship department. But Monfils also happens to have his calves taped right now, and coming back out to play another strong opponent in the humidity might be tough. After all, Monfils is 38 years old.
Considering all of that, I’m playing Korda to get over the hump and beat Monfils here. The American is one of the best ball strikers on the planet, and he’s nearly impossible to beat when he’s close to the peak of his powers. Well, ask Eliot Spizzirri or Stefanos Tsitsipas what they think about his current level. He played some flawless tennis in straight-set wins over both of them.
Bet: Korda ML (-149 – 1.5 units)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic has two straight-set wins in as many matches this tournament, but he was taken to a second-set tiebreaker against both Rinky Hijikata and Camilo Ugo Carabelli. So, it’s hard to be overly impressed with the 37-year-old’s level right now. In fact, in both matches, Djokovic looked visibly worn down the longer the matches went. He was just able to get by because the quality on the other side of the net wasn’t there. That won’t be the case against Musetti. The Italian isn’t quite as good on hard courts as he is elsewhere, but he’s good enough to give this version of Djokovic a match. When dialed in, Musetti is a good server that can crush the ball from both wings, while also having the movement required to play good defense and keep rallies alive. He’s going to test Djokovic all throughout this one, and I’m not sure the 24-time Grand Slam champion is going to answer the bell.
I’m playing Musetti to win a set as a bigger play, but I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. The only thing I’m really worried about is Musetti’s past struggles against Djokovic getting in his head as the finish line approaches. Musetti has lost a lot of matches against Djokovic in which he was in full control for most of the battle. He’ll need to find a way to keep that out of his mind here, but that’s not easy — even if Djokovic isn’t quite the same as he used to be.
Bet: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-112 – 2 units) & Musetti ML (+250 – 0.5 units)
