For the next two weeks, some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double, as we just saw Mirra Andreeva and Jack Draper win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells last week. And these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, Andreeva and Draper will look to add their names to the short list of players that have have gone back-to-back to win both events. However, the men’s and women’s fields are both loaded, so it’s not going to be easy. With that in mind, keep reading for my Miami Open tournament preview. I’ll dive into the court conditions and give you some of my favorite plays on the futures market.
Miami Open playing conditions
Last week’s BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells used the same Laykold hard-court surface that is used at the Miami Open. However, the style of play in South Beach will be different than what you saw in the desert. Throughout the course of last week’s 1000-level event, players noted that the ball was bouncing just as high as normal. The numbers backed that up. This year’s Indian Wells Masters had a Surface Speed of 0.80, meaning the Ace Rate at this year’s event was 20% lower than a tour-average tournament. Well, last year’s Miami Open had a Surface Speed of 1.10, meaning an Ace Rate 10% higher than a tour-average event.
What does all of that mean? Well, you still need to be good at tennis in order to win matches. But the conditions will favor big servers and powerful baseliners. There will be more quick-strike tennis. That said, look for a higher hold percentage across the board — which means less breaks. Also, look for good, powerful ground strokes to be rewarded with winners, or balls that are easy to put away upon coming back — which means less longer rallies and grinding.
Miami Open women’s futures
Aryna Sabalenka To Win (+350 – 1.5 units) – Sabalenka was unable to beat Andreeva in the BNP Paribas Open final, but the conditions in Miami are a lot better for her. A player with Sabalenka’s brute strength isn’t out there to play long points, having to deal with high bounces and wind preventing her from racking up winners. Well, she shouldn’t have to deal with that in Miami. And if she ends up facing Andreeva at any point here, I’d expect her to make quick work of the 17-year-old. That’s exactly what happened when they played in faster conditions back in January. In my opinion, the main obstacle standing in Sabalenka’s way in South Beach is Rybakina, a back-to-back runner-up at this event. But I’m going to deal with that by also playing Rybakina to win. I think the winner of their potential quarter-final matchup will go to the final, where I’d love either of their chances against anybody but Madison Keys. And I’m dealing with that by taking Keys!
Elena Rybakina To Win (13-1 – 0.5 units) – Rybakina has had to play Andreeva in back-to-back tournaments, which is why I believe we’re not talking a little more about her 2025 form. For the most part, Rybakina has looked fully back as one of the game’s elite servers, and I think she looks a little more mobile along the baseline. These conditions also happen to suit her perfectly, which is why she has made the final here in back-to-back years. And I think she’s going to be extremely motivated in Miami, as this is the last big hard-court event before she moves over to clay. She’s not a lost cause on the red stuff, but more has to break right for her to win titles when she’s playing in slower conditions.
Madison Keys To Win (15-1 – 0.5 units) – In the other half of the bracket, I like Keys’ chances of making a deep run. For somebody that took multiple weeks off after winning the Australian Open, Keys sure looked sharp in Indian Wells. There were some nail-biters along the way, but there was also a clinical performance against a red-hot Belinda Bencic. Of course, the Sabalenka loss will be fresh in the minds of many, but that stuff happens. Keys is still 18-2 with two titles since the start of 2025. She also has a game that should make her very tough to out in South Beach. She has a massive serve, she’s a good returner and she has big power along the baseline.
Ekaterina Alexandrova To Win Quarter 2 (+800 – 0.25 units) – With Coco Gauff being the highest-seeded player in Quarter 2, this is the part of the draw to take some shots. Well, I’m putting a little something on Alexandrova to make a deep run. Alexandrova actually went all the way to the semifinals in Miami last year, losing to eventual champion Danielle Collins. She’s an aggressive ball striker that can be very difficult to beat when she’s rolling, and we have already seen her play some great tennis this year. She won a title in Linz earlier in the season, and she also made a nice run in Doha. It just shouldn’t surprise anybody if she ends up playing well this week. I also thought about Naomi Osaka here, but the number wasn’t good enough for a player that hasn’t played much tennis this season.
Linda Noskova To Win Quarter 3 (+900 – 0.25 units) – I’m also taking a chance on Noskova to win Quarter 3. Emma Navarro and Jessica Pegula are the highest-seeded players in this part of the draw, and this also happens to be where Andreeva is. Well, Navarro and Pegula are both great, but they can also lose to any great ball striker on the right night. And Noskova is absolutely that. She can pound the ball from the baseline, and she’s another youngster that should really break out and make herself known to casual fans — much like Andreeva. She might not be as good, but she’s definitely a player that can win majors one day. As for Andreeva, I just find it hard to believe she’s going to win three 1000-level titles in a row. That takes an absurd level of focus, motivation and fitness. I imagine she’s going to get tripped up somewhat early here, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
Miami Open men’s futures
Coming soon. The draw has been released, but odds aren’t up.
