Mutua Madrid Open Predictions for Friday, April 25th
The top players in the world are in Madrid for a pair of 1000-level events this week, as it’s time for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. I’ll be posting daily articles with my best bets for the action at the Caja Magica, so come back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on some tennis. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!
With all of that in mind, check out my Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Friday, April 25th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Mariano Navone vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton beat Navone rather easily when they played at Indian Wells a couple of months ago, but this is going to be a completely different match. For starters, Shelton is coming off a run to the final in Munich, where he got beat up on by Alexander Zverev. Shelton looked visibly fatigued in that final, which wasn’t surprising after the American played two physical three-setters on his way to that point. Well, I’m not sure Shelton is going to feel much better when he gets back out there. Playing in a final and then heading to a new city can be draining — both physically and mentally.
Navone is also one of the best clay-court returners in the world, which is a statement that was only solidified in a straight-set win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the opening round. If Navone was able to get that serve back, he should be able to do the same against Shelton. And that’s going to be interesting to keep an eye on, as longer baseline exchanges should favor Navone in a big way.
I’m honestly a lot higher on Shelton’s clay-court game than most. I think he has a real future on the surface. But there’s a lot working against him here, and Navone should be able to take advantage of that on a surface he’s better on. Keep an eye on the Shelton backhand here. That shot can still be a problem for the American, so Navone is going to look to blast some shots with heavy topspin to that side of the court. That should lead to some Shelton errors, or just open up the court for Navone.
Pick: Navone ML (+125 – 1.5 units)
Flavio Cobolli vs. Holger Rune
Rune is another player coming off a long run last week, but his ended with a win. Rune beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final in Barcelona, picking up his first big title in what feels like forever. Now, Rune is hoping to get right back to playing some fantastic tennis in Madrid. And while he does have the game for it, I think it’s going to be difficult for him to get the motor going early on — and that’s especially true for an up-and-down player to begin with.
Cobolli is a player I faded in the opening round. I just don’t think the Italian is a great server, and he also struggled mightily to start the season. But I was impressed with the way he battled against Fabian Marozsan. And he has now won six of the eight matches he has played since the move to clay. It’s clear he’s starting to find his groove, making him a dangerous opponent for Rune right now.
Cobolli has the type of firepower required to make Rune a little uncomfortable. Also, while Cobolli isn’t the best server in the world, Rune isn’t the best returner. So, this is actually a pretty strong matchup for Cobolli, and I’m more than comfortable with testing Rune in this spot. The Dane is one of my favorite players in the world — and somebody I think will win majors one day— but consistency isn’t his calling card.
Pick: Cobolli +1.5 Sets (-132 – 1.5 units) & Cobolli ML (+215 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
