On Sunday, November 17th, Taylor Fritz and Jannik Sinner battle for the championship at the Nitto ATP Finals. This will be the second meeting between these two at this very tournament, as Sinner earned a 6-4, 6-4 win over the American in the group stage. However, Fritz was able to bounce back to earn wins over Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur in round-robin play, and that booked him a spot in the semifinals. In the semis, Fritz won a tight three-set battle against Alexander Zverev, marking his fourth consecutive win against the German. Meanwhile, Sinner, who went undefeated in group play, beat Casper Ruud in a lopsided semi-final showdown. Now, we get a rematch of the 2024 US Open final, which saw Sinner pull out a 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 win over Fritz in New York. And we get this rematch in Turin, Italy, where Sinner will now have home-court advantage. With all of that out of the way, keep reading for a look at how I’m playing Fritz versus Sinner.
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2024 Record: 846-829 (+39.49 units)
Taylor Fritz vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Moneyline: Sinner -800, Fritz +500
Spread: Sinner -4.5 Games (+137), Fritz +4.5 Games (-188)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-138), Under 21.5 Games (+100)
How To Watch Taylor Fritz vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: Palasport Olimpico in Turin, Italy
When: 12:00 pm ET on Sunday, November 17th
Channel: Tennis Channel
Taylor Fritz vs. Jannik Sinner Analysis
In my Nitto ATP Finals preview, the only future I gave out was Sinner to win the tournament at +145. That was a 2-unit play for me. That said, I’m really only looking to hedge this match. I’m doing that by putting 0.6 units on Fritz at +500. That locks in +2.3 for a Sinner win or +1.0 for a Fritz win. And that puts me at either +40.49 units or +41.79 units to close out the entire season, as I’m going to be taking some time off from handicapping tennis until the start of the 2025 season. So, if you rode this one with me before the start of the ATP Finals, feel free to lock in some profits. However, I understand if you want to let it ride. Sinner has dominated Fritz in the past, and there isn’t much that suggests the American will change that in Turin. Either way, after this match, focus on some other sports and then come back for the United Cup. I’ll be writing up that event here and we can start sweating out the overnight action in Australia together.
For anybody that didn’t grab Sinner before the tournament, it’s difficult to play this match individually. Sinner is just such a heavy favorite, making it hard to reasonably back the Italian. One way to get creative is to take Sinner to win Over 12.5 games. I love Sinner to win this match, and I naturally believe there’s a shot he wins it in straight sets. However, going Over on Sinner’s player game total protects you in the event that Sinner needs a tiebreaker to win a set, or wins the match in three sets. And both of those things are possible considering how well Fritz has served all week. Also, on the off chance Fritz does win the match, it’s highly unlikely he does so in straight sets. So, you’d probably be able to cash Sinner’s game total Over in a three-set loss.
Hedge: Fritz ML (+500 – 0.6 units)
