On Thursday, May 22nd, 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic turned 38 years old. The Serbian is now entering an interesting stage of his career. Roger Federer won the last Grand Slam title of his career at the age of 36, and Rafael Nadal only played a half of a season as a 38-year-old. The Spaniard also missed a lot of time in that final stretch of the year, and he didn’t play at a high level. But Djokovic is still searching for Grand Slam No. 25, and he believes he can win it. But he’s really going to need to earn the next one. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are responsible for the last five majors, and both have Big Three-level talent.
Djokovic’s next chance begins in a couple of days, when the Serbian arrives in Paris for the 2025 French Open. And there aren’t many people giving him a chance at Roland Garros. Djokovic has suffered some disastrous defeats this year, with losses to Botic van de Zandschulp (in Indian Wells), Alejandro Tabilo (in Monte-Carlo) and Matteo Arnaldi (in Madrid) coming to mind. Also, Djokovic was a pretty big favorite to beat Jakub Mensik in the Miami Open final, and that was one in which the Serbian was highly motivated. He had a chance to win his 100th title, in a 1000-level event, and he wasn’t able to summon the level needed to beat the highly-talented Czech teenager.
On top of all of that, Djokovic hasn’t exactly been healthy. A torn hamstring ended what was a tremendous run in Melbourne earlier in the year, as played through the injury and beat Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. But he only lasted one set against Alexander Zverev in the semifinals, and he looked nothing like himself in the 13 games they played. Djokovic also had a nasty stye in Miami and Monte-Carlo. That might not seem significant, but it clearly bothered him. Then, Djokovic decided to skip the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, which certainly raised some eyebrows. Djokovic is a six-time champion in Rome, and he has always enjoyed playing that event. That led many to wonder if he was dealing with another injury, or a lingering one from earlier in the year. Fortunately, Djokovic decided to play a 250-level event in Geneva, which quelled some of those concerns.
Realistically, between his recent struggles and inconsistency in the health department, it’s hard to argue with anybody that believes Djokovic is cooked. However, I think it’s a little early to make that declaration. We’re not even a year removed from one of the best performances of Djokovic’s life. His straight-set win over Alcaraz to win Olympic gold in Paris was the stuff of legends, and it’s not like we haven’t seen some good tennis from him since. In Melbourne, Djokovic beat Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka in dominant straight-set affairs, and he then followed that up with the quarter-final win over Alcaraz. Also, Djokovic didn’t lose a set before facing Mensik in the Miami Open final, and he did face Lorenzo Musetti, Sebastian Korda and Grigor Dimitrov in South Beach.
I just can’t help but think that we’re underrating what Djokovic did earlier in the season, and I also feel we’re ruling out a return to form for a player that has done nothing but silence critics throughout his career. With that in mind, I strongly believe there’s some rare value with Djokovic heading into the French Open. And the value lies in Djokovic winning Quarter 2, which can be found at several shops at +250.
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You don’t want to make the mistake of getting too excited about a 250 in Geneva, but Djokovic has looked great in Switzerland. The Serbian earned a 6-2, 6-3 win over Marton Fucsovics, a 6-4, 6-4 win over Arnaldi and a 6-4, 6-7 (6), 6-1 win over an in-form Cameron Norrie. Of course, Djokovic will need to run through some stronger players than that to make the semifinals in Paris, but the Arnaldi win was especially interesting. Arnaldi dusted Djokovic in Madrid on April 26th, and it’s clear that the Serbian has made some real progress over the last few weeks.
If you don’t want to read into his wins over subpar players, Djokovic has also earned some great marks from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. Against Fucsovics, Djokovic had a Performance Rating of 9.02, which was the second-highest number he has posted all year. Performance Rating takes into account how well Djokovic played, and it does so in a way that isn’t impacted by who he was playing, or how little the match might have mattered. It factors in shot selection, precision on shots and several other indicators that aren’t subjective. Djokovic was also insane from the forehand wing in the match against Fucsovics, posting a Shot Quality score of 9.2 on that side of the court. Against Arnaldi, Djokovic’s first 15 games left a little to be desired but he got hot after falling down 1-4 in the second set. Over the last five games of that match, he had a Shot Quality score of 9.5 from the forehand side. Then, against Norrie, he had an 8.3 score on the forehand wing and a 9.3 on the backhand wing. That felt like a true return to form for the Serb, who has always had one of the sport’s best backhands. He also had his best serving performance of the tournament against the Brit. And up until the final, his scrambling and ability to steal points was there.
It just doesn’t take much for Djokovic to play his way into form, and he appears to have done that in the last couple of weeks. Now, he heads to the Stade Roland Garros, where he hasn’t lost a match since 2022. That year, Djokovic came up short in a meeting with Nadal in the quarterfinals, but he won the French Open in 2023 and he pulled out of last year’s event before facing Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals. Then, he came back to Paris and won that gold medal at this very venue.
Djokovic doesn’t get his flowers for his clay-court prowess, which has a lot to do with what Nadal did on Court Philippe-Chatrier. But Djokovic is one of the greatest to ever lace them up on the dirt. And on a surface that many others struggle to move on, his clay-court mobility and instincts should be enough for him to win some of his early matches this year.
Djokovic’s draw is an absolute dream. He’ll face Mackenzie McDonald in the first round, Corentin Moutet or Clement Tabur in the second round and likely Denis Shapovalov or Pedro Martinez in the third. Even if Djokovic is wildly off, he should win all three of those matches. I’d also love his chances against Daniil Medvedev, Ugo Humbert or Norrie in the fourth round, and that would bring him to the quarterfinals. At that point, he’d likely be looking at a meeting with either Zverev or Francisco Cerundolo. Both of them are good clay-court players, but I really can’t see either of them actually defeating Djokovic on this big of a stage. Zverev seems like a broken player mentally. And in the spirit of Kurt Angle, Djokovic beat Cerundolo with a torn freakin’ knee in this tournament last year.
It’s just hard to believe we’ve seen the last of Djokovic playing his way deep into big tournaments, and I think we’ll see him reestablish himself as a top-five player in Paris. And while that might not mean he’ll win the tournament, that’s not what we’re asking of him as a quarter play. However, I will note that a good run here would make Djokovic an enticing option at Wimbledon. He has proven throughout his career that he can sleepwalk his way to the Wimbledon final, which is something to remember as we move from clay to grass.
