On Friday, September 5th, we’ll see a ninth meeting between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, and we’ll see it on the grand stage of the US Open. These two are set to clash in the semifinals, where there will be a lot on the line. Djokovic is looking to win his 25th Grand Slam title, and some feel this is his last chance to do it. Meanwhile, Alcaraz is eager to win in New York for the first time since 2022, and doing so would put him on par with Jannik Sinner with two major titles in 2025. But Djokovic has won four of his last five matches against Alcaraz, so the Spaniard does have some things he needs to figure out. No matter who ends up on top, this should be a fascinating match. Keep reading for our suggestion on betting it.
I also post more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
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Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 3rd at 2:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alcaraz -380, Djokovic +290
Spread: Alcaraz -5.5 Games (-115), Djokovic +5.5 Games (-115)
Total: Over 37.5 Games (-115), Under 37.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Friday, September 5th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
I know -200 plays aren’t for everyone, but I believe the chances of Djokovic winning at least a set in this match are greater than the implied 66.67%. I’ll also put a tiny little something on Djokovic to win at +300, so maybe that evens it out.
Djokovic has quietly had Alcaraz’s number lately. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has won four of their last five matches, and one of those victories came at the Australian Open earlier in the year. Not only was that match played in similar conditions, but Djokovic channeled his inner Kurt Angle and won that match with a torn freaking hamstring.
Djokovic just seems to have a good strategy in place for his battles with the Spaniard. The Serbian knows that his slider serve to the Alcaraz forehand will either lead to a bunch of unforced errors or easy put-away opportunities — whether those are plus-one forehands or straightforward finishes at the net. He also knows that stretching Alcaraz in baseline exchanges is an absolute must, So, when Djokovic is in a nice rhythm as a ball-striker, he’s capable of moving his younger rival from side to side and opening opportunities to hit winners. And with one of the biggest forehands in the sport right now — and one of the best backhands of all time — Djokovic is good about taking his opportunities to put Alcaraz away.
Djokovic is also one of the smartest players of all time, so he’ll continue to dissect what’s happening and make adjustments. But so far, being precise with the serve and playing aggressive, quick-strike tennis has allowed Djokovic to take control of this head-to-head series. That said, the blueprint is there for Djokovic to give himself another shot at beating the 22-year-old. And it’s a blueprint that Sinner has tried his best to follow in his most recent meetings with Alcaraz.
The only reason I’m not being more aggressive with my Djokovic plays is that he has looked a little beaten up throughout this tournament. Against Cameron Norrie, Djokovic tweaked his back and needed to receive off-court treatment to finish that one out. Then, in his quarter-final match against Taylor Fritz, Djokovic often hunched over with his hands on his knees towards the end of longer baseline exchanges. He was visibly winded. Well, if Djokovic is going to find a way to beat Alcaraz again, he’s going to need to be close to 100% health. Having two full days of rest will help, but that might be canceled out by the fact that this match will likely be played in the late afternoon. Djokovic can struggle with afternoon sessions in the sun.
Another option would be to play the Over on 3.5 sets at a little closer to -150. It’s a very similar bet, but you wouldn’t win in the event Djokovic wins in straight sets. And I personally wouldn’t be able to stomach that when I lean Djokovic as the winner. Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set the entire tournament, and there hasn’t been much that separates these two even in the recent Djokovic wins. But the Serbian does have two straight-set wins over Alcaraz in their last four matches, and he won three sets in a row against the Spaniard after dropping the first in Melbourne. He’s just a little sharper in the biggest moments, and he has a pretty clear advantage in tiebreakers. So, I don’t want to burn myself in the event Djokovic nudges himself across the finish line in a very close straight-set win.
I know how ridiculous it sounds to have this much faith in an older Djokovic against this version of Alcaraz, who oozes athleticism, energy and charisma. But having watched thousands of hours of men’s tennis over the last few years, it was pretty clear that Sinner has an Alcaraz problem, Djokovic has a Sinner problem and Alcaraz has a Djokovic problem. And just because the first one changed this year, that doesn’t mean the others will.
Bet: Djokovic To Win A Set (-200 – 1.5 units) & Djokovic ML (+300 – 0.25 units)
