On Sunday, April 13th, Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz will battle for the first clay-court 1000 of the year, as the two are set to meet in the finals of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. This will be Musetti’s first 1000-level final, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Italian deals with the occasion. However, it’s also Alcaraz’s first time playing this deep in Monte-Carlo, as this is only his second time playing the event and he lost his only match here back in 2022. So, neither player will know exactly what to expect when they get on the red clay and start playing, though Alcaraz does have plenty of big-match experience. Either way, I can’t wait to see how this one plays out — especially with the elite shot-making ability both of these players possess. With all of that out of the way, keep reading for a preview of Musetti versus Alcaraz in Monaco.
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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Odds accurate as of Saturday, April 12th at 3:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alcaraz -400, Musetti +310
Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-110), Musetti +4.5 Games (-120)
Total: Over 20.5 Games (-120), Under 20.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: Monte-Carlo Country Club in Monaco
When: Sunday, April 13th at 6:00 am ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
Hopefully some people caught my pre-tournament futures story, as I gave out Alex de Minaur to win Quarter 2 (+650) and Alcaraz to win this tournament (+175). I personally risked 1.5 units to win 2.63 on the Spaniard, making this final an easy one for me to hedge. That said, I’m grabbing Musetti at +350 odds and risking 0.63 units on it. That means I’ll win 0.70 units if the Italian wins and 2 units if Alcaraz wins. If you tailed my Alcaraz future, I’d suggest doing something similar. But for anybody that didn’t take the future, I’d look to lay the games with Alcaraz.
I can’t sit here and tell you that I believe Alcaraz is 4.5 games better than Musetti on a clay court right now. Sure, the Spaniard has played at a higher level here than he has in pretty much any other tournament this season. But Alcaraz has been letting opponents hang around with some inconsistent serving and untimely errors. He’s just finding another gear when his back is against the wall, which is what champions do.
All of that probably makes it confusing that I suggested laying the games with Alcaraz, but the reality is that this is more of a fade on Musetti than anything else. I absolutely love the Italian’s game — especially on this surface — and had him to beat de Minaur in the semifinals. But Musetti has struggled with Alcaraz in the past. The Italian won their first ATP-level encounter, coming away with a 6-4, 6-7 (6), 6-4 win in the Hamburg finals in 2022. But since then, Alcaraz is 3-0 against Musetti and hasn’t dropped a single set. Musetti also won three or fewer games in all seven of the sets they’ve played since Hamburg, with three of them coming on the clay in Roland Garros.
Musetti has also flirted with disaster throughout this tournament, dropping the first set of three of his last four matches and doing so the same exact way: He lost 6-1 in all of those. Well, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Alcaraz winning one lopsided set here, which is why I’m okay with laying a bigger number than I’d normally ever suggest.
It also doesn’t hurt that Musetti is going to be absolutely gassed here. The Italian has played four three-set matches in his five matches in Monte-Carlo thus far. In total, he has been on the court for 11 hours and 33 minutes, which is just about four hours more than Alcaraz has played in Monaco this tournament. That’s a significant difference. Musetti also happens to be coming off a match against de Minaur, who is one of the most physical players on the ATP Tour.
All in all, Musetti has the talent and skill to make Alcaraz work on a slower clay court, but he would need to be 100% healthy and have a full tank to do so. He would also need to be in great form, and I’m not sure I’d say he’s there. So, Alcaraz really should be able to win with a pretty sizable disparity in games won, even if Musetti finds a way to sneak a set.
Hedge: Musetti ML (+350 – 0.63 units)
Match Lean: Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-108)
