It’s officially time for the 2025 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. This is the true start of clay-court season, as some of the top players in the world will battle it out for the first 1000-level tournament on the dirt. This tournament, played at Monte-Carlo Country Club, should bring some real drama, as everybody wants to start off the European clay-court swing on a positive note. Well, make sure you check out my 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters tournament futures. I always enjoy throwing in some pre-tournament plays to monitor over the course of an event. But I’m also going to be doing daily tennis best bets throughout this tournament, and that starts with the first full day of action. That said, check out my Monte-Carlo best bets for Monday, April 7th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but I occasionally add some picks to the picks page. I’ll also have plays for other tournaments on that page, so it definitely pays to be a VSiN Pro. Our Summer Special is only $59 and covers you through August 1st. That means you’ll get a ton of my tennis picks and write-ups, as well as the content we provide for all other sports — including our live programming!
Marcos Giron vs. Denis Shapovalov
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Ben Shelton
I like Shapovalov to defeat Giron on Monday, but I’m not looking to play the Canadian at -200 or worse. So, I’m parlaying Shapovalov to win outright with Shelton to win a set in his meeting with Davidovich Fokina later in the day.
Giron is a player that can be tough to beat in slower conditions, as he runs down everything and has a solid baseline game. However, the American’s serve is rather weak, so Shapovalov should have a lot of chances to crunch some returns. The Canadian just needs to dial things back in as a server. After some excellent serving performances earlier in the year, Shapovalov’s first-serve in percentage has dropped a bit in recent weeks. His double-fault problems are also starting to manifest themselves again. But even at his worst, Shapovalov is the superior server in this specific matchup. He also has more firepower from the baseline, and his movement has been much better in 2025. Getting healthy will do that for you.
As far as Shelton goes, I understand this is a dangerous opening-round opponent for the American. Davidovich Fokina is 42-39 on clay in his career, and he actually made the final of this event back in 2022. But Davidovich Fokina is much worse than Shelton when it comes to serving, and I can see that being a problem for the Spaniard at some point in this match. Shelton is better as a returner than he was in 2024, and his backhand is getting better. So, with his ability to blast serves, rip forehands and cover the court with his elite athleticism, I don’t see him losing in straight sets. Shelton is a better clay-court performer than he is given credit for.
PARLAY: Shapovalov ML & Shelton +1.5 Sets (+121)
Stan Wawrinka vs. Alejandro Tabilo
It can be tough backing Wawrinka at this stage of his career. His hold percentage is down at 72.9%, which is brutal considering his hold percentage is just 15.8%. However, Wawrinka played some solid tennis in Bucharest last week, beating Timofey Skatov in the Round of 32 and then pushing Pedro Martinez in the Round of 16. Wawrinka also won two matches on clay in a Challenger in Naples the week before, including one against Borna Coric. It’s just clear that Wawrinka is still putting in the work to try and win matches at this level, and I happen to think he got a great draw in Monte-Carlo.
While Tabilo is a player that had a lot of success in 2024, he’s just 2-9 since the start of 2025. Tabilo also happens to have a hold percentage of 78.0% and a break percentage of 17.4%. So, Wawrinka happens to be playing one of the only guys on the ATP Tour that isn’t significantly out-performing him when it comes to serving and returning. And the biggest reason I’m looking to fade Tabilo is that the Chilean came unglued in a loss to Jenson Brooksby in Houston last week. Tabilo racked up 52 unforced errors in that match, and most of them came from the backhand wing. Well, if Tabilo doesn’t figure things out there, he’s going to be in trouble. Wawrinka is a smart enough player to target weaknesses relentlessly.
Wawrinka has also won a title here before. Sure, that was all the way back in 2014, but this venue should bring him some confidence. He’ll also have the crowd firmly in his corner, making this a shot I’m willing to take at plus-money odds.
Bet: Wawrinka ML (+127)
Karen Khachanov vs. Daniil Medvedev
I’m a little surprised Khachanov can be had at plus-money odds against Medvedev. Khachanov actually beat Medvedev in straight sets at this tournament last year, winning 6-3, 7-5 and snapping a four-match losing streak in this head-to-head series. Of course, Medvedev did beat Khachanov in a tight three-set match in Doha this year, getting back in the win column and potentially picking up some confidence he can use heading into this meeting. But I don’t think it’s a fluke that Khachanov was able to beat Medvedev on the world No. 11’s worst surface.
Medvedev is just 37-31 on clay in his career, which is good for a winning percentage of just 54.4%. Well, his grass-court win percentage is 67.6% and his hard-court win percentage is 73.7%. Medvedev’s also making fewer first serves than he made in 2024, so I’m not sure I buy the slight bump in hold percentage we have seen to start this year. And given the way he has declined when it comes to controlling baseline rallies, it’s just hard to imagine this being a good clay-court season for him. That said, I’m taking Khachanov and I’m not thinking twice about it. Khachanov has a 58.0% win percentage on clay and was 8-5 on the surface last year. He’s a little more confident on this surface than Medvedev is.
Bet: Khachanov ML (+113)
