The 2025 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters is underway, signaling the true start of clay-court season. Some of the top players in the world are battling it out for the first 1000-level tournament on the dirt. This tournament, played at Monte-Carlo Country Club, should bring some real drama, as everybody wants to start off the European clay-court swing on a positive note.
I’m going to be doing daily tennis best bets throughout this tournament, and that continues with the third full day of action. That said, check out my Monte-Carlo best bets for Wednesday, April 9th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but I occasionally add some picks to the picks page. I’ll also have plays for other tournaments on that page, so it definitely pays to be a VSiN Pro. Our Summer Special is only $59 and covers you through August 1st. That means you’ll get a ton of my tennis picks and write-ups, as well as the content we provide for all other sports — including our live programming!
Richard Gasquet vs. Daniel Altmaier
Gasquet is set to retire after the French Open, as he’s 38 years old and his best years are behind him. However, the Frenchman has played some solid tennis over the last few weeks. In Bucharest last week, Gasquet earned a 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 win over Botic van de Zandschulp, then he pushed Flavio Cobolli, who ended up winning the tournament, in a 4-6, 6-4, 1-6 loss in the Round of 16. Then, in his first match in Monte-Carlo, Gasquet earned a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win over Matteo Arnaldi, who is a rock-solid clay-court player.
Gasquet is still capable of playing some decent tennis on this surface, and he’s actually 2-1 in three career meetings with Altmaier — and all of those matches were played on clay. On top of that, Gasquet has played 29 matches in Monte-Carlo, so he’s extremely comfortable in this venue. The crowd is also going to be absolutely insane as it looks to extend the Gasquet retirement tour. That means Gasquet will have adrenaline on his side, which could help him find an extra gear. That’s a gear he might already have after having had two full days of rest after the Arnaldi win.
I also just don’t love Altmaier when he’s playing as a favorite, and I also don’t trust him in a hostile atmosphere. He’s a player that can occasionally struggle to handle his nerve. Considering all of that, I like Gasquet to win a set and I’m also sprinkling some moneyline.
Bet: Gasquet +1.5 Sets (-138 – 1.5 units) & Gasquet ML (+192 – 0.5 units)
Jiri Lehecka vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Lehecka is 17-16 on clay in his career, and he’s 5-2 in the last 52 weeks. However, all of that damage was done in Madrid. The Czech made the semifinals of that 1000-level event last year, and he ultimately pulled out of it with an injury. But it definitely feels like that run helped make his overall numbers on the dirt look a little better. Of course, Lehecka deserves some credit for beating Sebastian Korda 6-3, 7-6 (7) in the opening round here. But Korda isn’t much of a clay-court player himself, and Musetti is a whole different beast.
Musetti is 56-37 on clay on his career. He has also won nine matches on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. The Italian also had a clay-court performance rating of 7.85 before the French Open last year, according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. Only 13 players had a higher score than that, and then Musetti went on to play some great tennis at Roland Garros — and even better tennis at the Paris Olympics. It’s just incredibly hard to hit the ball by Musetti on a slow surface, and his ability to hit with shape, construct points and eventually find angles for winners is special. All of that makes it hard not to see some value in him to beat Lehecka. Of course, Lehecka is 2-0 against Musetti in their brief head-to-head history, but both of those matches were played on hard courts. That’s where Lehecka’s booming serve is one of the sports most dangerous weapons. On these courts, where it’s hard to hold, Musetti should be able to figure it out.
Bet: Musetti ML (-125)
Alexei Popyrin vs. Frances Tiafoe
I got absolutely demolished fading Tiafoe in his match against Miomir Kecmanovic on Tuesday. In fact, I ended up wasting a day in which I was scorching hot with my Challenger picks. However, I still feel good about the analysis that went into that pick. Tiafoe came out firing and was able to dominate the opening set of that match, but Kecmanovic was the better player by a pretty significant margin the next two. He just played some big points really poorly in the final set. And he did that despite the fact that Tiafoe was clearly fatigued, with the American even turning to an underhand serve late in that set to try and sneak a point without having to rally.
Popyrin shouldn’t suffer the same fate as Kecmanovic. For starters, the Australian is a much better server, so he should do a better job of breezing through his service games — even in returner-friendly conditions. He has also shown that he’s a little better as a grinder than you’d think for a quick-strike player. In fact, Popyrin beat Corentin Moutet and Andrey Rublev, two capable clay-court players, here in 2024. He also played good tennis at the Paris Olympics, beating Nicolas Jarry and Stan Wawrinka before falling in a competitive match against Alexander Zverev.
I know that this is a tough pick to make, as Tiafoe is a fan favorite and Popyrin isn’t known for his clay-court prowess. But Tiafoe just traveled seven time zones in two days and then played for two hours and 34 minutes on Tuesday. He’s going to be exhausted and Popyrin is good enough to take advantage of a wounded opponent. That’s what he did against a banged-up Ugo Humbert last match.
Bet: Popyrin ML (-139 – 1.5 units)
Alexandre Muller vs. Daniil Medvedev
Since the start of the 2025 season, Muller is 12-7 with a title run in Hong Kong and a runner-up finish in Rio de Janeiro. He has played some really good tennis, and he’s also 13-10 on clay over the last 52 weeks. So, while Muller is going to have to play extremely well in order to get the better of Medvedev on Wednesday, this kind of feels like a spot in which you have to just take him and hope it works out.
Medvedev was able to find a way to beat Karen Khachanov in the opening round, but that was an ugly win for the 29-year-old. Medvedev landed just 50% of his first serves and was broken eight times. That type of serving will catch up to him at some point, and Muller could be the one that makes him pay.
Muller isn’t a big server by any means, but he can hit his spots and come to the net to finish points when he does. We saw in some grueling conditions in Rio that Muller is the type of player that can win wars of attrition with his willingness to grind and mix things up. So, I feel really good about him getting on the board with at least one set in what should be a physical match.
Medvedev has said that he is practicing well in Monte-Carlo, and he noted after the Khachanov win that he is capable of playing at a much higher level considering what he has done in training. But this is still a player that has struggled on the dirt in his career, and he has been beatable on all surfaces over the last two years. So, fading him in a tough matchup should work soon.
Bet: Muller +1.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units) & Muller ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
