Rome tennis best bets for May 12th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the next week. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are going to be motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Keep reading for my picks for Monday, May 12th. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re in the midst of the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, and we’re covering all of it at VSiN — whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Tomas Machac vs. Tommy Paul
This is a really interesting matchup, as Machac is a player that can struggle to grind out wins and Paul is the ultimate fighter. So, if this match is tight and ends up going to the distance, that probably favors the American. However, in terms of actual talent and ability, Machac has Paul beat. The Czech is a brilliant ball striker, plays with his front foot forward and he’s always looking for opportunities to get to the net. Also, while Paul’s backhand is viewed as one of the best two-handers on tour, Machac’s might be better. And the Czech clears the American from the forehand wing.
Considering all of that, Machac should have chances to win this match. He just needs to keep himself healthy. And while I am nervous about cramps — or another minor soft tissue issue — derailing all of this, Machac is worth a play at the current number. He’s actually 2-0 against Paul in his career, as he picked up two three-set wins over him on the Asian hard-court swing last year. Of course, you might note that Machac winning two three-setters against Paul might contradict what I wrote earlier about the grind. But this is a slow clay court, not a faster hard court. This will be a more physical match, and it’ll demand more out of Machac.
Pick: Machac ML (+126)
Emma Raducanu vs. Coco Gauff
I flirted with taking Raducanu +5.5 games at -143, and I also considered giving this the set spread and moneyline sprinkle treatment. However, I ultimately decided that I don’t want to have too much exposure on Raducanu, as her lows can be very low. Similarly, Gauff’s highs can be very high. However, I absolutely had to grab a small piece of Raducanu here, so I landed on plus-money odds for a 4.5-game spread.
The reality is that Gauff’s serve and forehand will always make her somewhat vulnerable against rock-solid opponents. Sure, her high-end talent means these plays can go very wrong — like when I had Sofia Kenin to beat her in Miami and she got double-bageled — and I risk looking very dumb when fading the American. But for as many rough scorelines as I have been on with Gauff, I have profited in finding fade spots for her. Well, this is one of them.
Gauff dropped a set against Victoria Mboko in the Round of 64, and she then had to scratch and claw her way to a 7-5, 6-3 win over Magda Linette last round. So, all in all, she’s a little vulnerable at the moment. Well, that makes Raducanu interesting. The Brit has quietly won eight of her last 10 matches, with wins over Emma Navarro and Amanda Anisimova in that stretch. She also was very competitive in a loss to Jess Pegula in the Miami Open quarterfinals. Raducanu is just serving extremely well at the moment, and she’s a tough player to beat when she has the serve going. That’s because she’s also an aggressive baseliner that will hunt winners no matter who she’s playing.
If Raducanu can just continue to put first serves in the box, it’s hard to see her getting romped here. Gauff is going to put some pressure on herself with her shaky serving, which is why I don’t see the American covering.
Pick: Raducanu +4.5 Games (+111)
Jaume Munar vs. Sebastian Korda
I’m really surprised Munar is going off at plus-money odds against Korda. I jumped on the Spaniard in his match against Ben Shelton the other day, and I think the handicap is pretty similar here. While Korda has more clay-court experience than Shelton, the world No. 23 has only played 49 ATP-level matches on the surface. That’s 21 fewer matches played on clay than Munar has won.
The Spaniard just has a much better feel for what he needs to do to win on the dirt, where his variety, baseline defense and ability to redirect pace can be overwhelming. I have also noted this throughout the season, but Munar has added some punch with his first serve and his forehand. He has a career-high hold percentage of 81.1% this year, and he’s also finishing rallies a little easier.
I just think that Munar is going to extract a lot of errors out of Korda, and that should shake the American’s confidence. Korda is one of the smoothest players on tour when he’s hitting well, but he has been running hot and cold all year. Well, I’m expecting more cold on Munar’s favorite surface.
Pick: Munar ML (+118 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
