Rome tennis best bets for May 10th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the next week. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are going to be motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Keep reading for my picks for Saturday, May 10th. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re in the midst of the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, and we’re covering all of it at VSiN — whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
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Jaume Munar vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton had a good amount of success playing altitude clay, as he went to the finals of the BMW Open and beat Luciano Darderi and Francisco Cerundolo along the way. Then, Shelton earned a win over a good clay-courter in Mariano Navone in Madrid, and he ultimately got bounced by Jakub Mensik. All in all, considering Shelton is green on the surface, it was a nice way for the American to bounce back after a rough loss in the Round of 64 against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Monte-Carlo.
The problem with Shelton is that his game really doesn’t translate all that well to much slower clay, which is what he’ll be playing on in Rome — and Roland Garros. Shelton’s serve is obviously tough to return anywhere, but it’s a lot easier to pick up in grittier conditions. We saw that in Monte-Carlo. And simply hitting big, flat strokes from the baseline doesn’t play all that well in Rome, so Shelton is going to need to mix in a little more than just that. I’m not quite sure he’ll be able to do that.
Munar is also a rough matchup for Shelton in the Round of 64. The Spaniard grew up on the dirt, so he moves extremely, has every shot you need to win on this surface and just has as high of a comfort level as you can have out there. And we have already seen this season that Munar’s ability to absorb pace and come up with his own can frustrate the American. Munar beat Shelton in an indoor hardcourt tournament in Dallas a couple of months ago, and those conditions were perfect for the American. So, shifting back to the slower red clay should only make him feel better about winning this one.
Pick: Munar ML (+110 – 1.5 units)
Thiago Seyboth Wild vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Seyboth Wild has had a rough 2025 season, as he’s just 4-8 at the ATP level. However, he does come into this tournament after having picked up some wins in Mauthausen, and that seems to have gotten him going a bit. Seyboth Wild beat Pierluigi Basile and Jesper De Jong in qualifying, and he followed that up with a massive win over Nuno Borges in the Round of 128. Now, the Brazilian is starting to look a little dangerous on his best surface, where his massive forehand — which he hits with a ton of topspin — makes him a tough player to beat. And that’s really enough for me to back him at +138 against this opponent.
Auger-Aliassime has had some success on clay in his career, but it’s really not the best surface for a big server that can be a bit one-dimensional from the baseline. And Auger-Aliassime is also in terrible form right now, as he has lost five consecutive matches, including straight-set losses to inferior competition like Daniel Altmaier, Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Andrea Pellegrino. Well, if Auger-Aliassime isn’t capable of beating clay-court specialists right now, how can you trust him to beat Seyboth Wild here?
It would take a fantastic serving day for the Canadian to win this match, and we just haven’t see many of those lately. That said, this is worth a shot, especially with Seyboth Wild likely to have the crowd on his side. Plus, the Brazilian has proven to be a big-match player, so he’ll enjoy this stage and opportunity.
Pick: Seyboth Wild ML (+138)
Marie Bouzkova vs. Naomi Osaka
Osaka’s clash with Bouzkova isn’t one of Saturday’s standout matches, but it’s one I’m interested in. Osaka has had a turbulent season, starting strong before injuries set her back, but she’s now healthy and riding high after a title run at Saint Malo, where she won five straight matches. Her current seven-match clay winning streak and renewed confidence make her the clear favorite her.
Bouzkova, meanwhile, comes off a dominant win over Beatriz Haddad Maia — in a match in which I backed the Czech — but her 2025 season has been inconsistent. She has a modest 9-8 record and declining hold percentage. While Bouzkova has yet to drop a set in Rome, her serve could be vulnerable against Osaka’s aggressive returning. If Bouzkova struggles on her serve, Osaka’s power and improved movement — especially since working with Patrick Mouratoglou — could quickly tilt the match in her favor. That’s why I’m willing to lay the game spread. Historically, Osaka leads their head-to-head 2-0, both wins coming in straight sets on hard courts. But I’m higher on Osaka’s clay-court game than most, so I don’t see the surface change leading to a competitive match.
Pick: Osaka -2.5 Games (-145 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
