Rome tennis best bets for May 11th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the next week. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are going to be motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Keep reading for my picks for Sunday, May 11th. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re in the midst of the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, and we’re covering all of it at VSiN — whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Leylah Fernandez vs. Marta Kostyuk
Kostyuk was severely underseeded in this tournament, and she’s making some higher-ranked players pay for the event’s mistake. The Ukrainian earned a 6-0, 6-1 win over Alexandra Eala in her first match here, and she followed it up with a straightforward 6-4, 6-2 victory over Daria Kasatkina. The next mark will be Fernandez, who could be in big trouble. Fernandez is just 21-21 on clay at the WTA level, and a lot of that has to do with how hard she has to work in her service games. The Canadian is a good baseliner, but she doesn’t give herself enough of an advantage with the ball on her racquet. And that, coupled with a weaker year when it comes to returning, is why Fernandez is just 9-9 overall this season.
This is just a match in which Kostyuk should regularly get chances to break, and I trust her to take advantage. Only eight players have higher break percentages than Kostyuk’s 40.7% over the last 52 weeks. And overall, Kostyuk’s baseline game should hold up pretty nicely against Fernandez’s.
Kostyuk is just a far superior player, and she’s also in better form. So, even though I generally like to lay 2.5 or fewer games, I’m willing to lay 3.5 in this spot.
Pick: Kostyuk -3.5 Games (-118)
Corentin Moutet vs. Holger Rune
Rune whooped Moutet the last time they played, winning 6-2, 6-4 at Indian Wells. But this has been a good matchup for Moutet in the past, as he was 2-0 against the Dane before that match. This is also going to be their first meeting on clay, which is where Moutet is at his best. The Frenchman is one of the most clever players in the world, as he has every shot in the book and is masterful when it comes to deciding which one to use. And on a slower-bouncing surface, his ability to hit slices, drop shots and heavy topspin shots will be tough for Rune to handle.
I’m also not convinced Rune can handle this match physically. While he did win a title in Barcelona a couple of weeks ago, that run was sandwiched in between a bunch of retirements. And Rune was on the court for three hours in a war against Francisco Comesana on Friday. Well, if Rune’s not 100% healthy for this match, Moutet is going to test his legs.
Overall, Rune is a better player than Moutet, but these prices feel a little off to me. So, I’m taking a stab on Moutet to win a set — and sprinkling some moneyline.
Pick: Moutet +1.5 Sets (+125) & Moutet ML (+440 – 0.25 units)
Linda Noskova vs. Mirra Andreeva
This is another match in which I’m ignoring a recent beatdown in the head-to-head. Andreeva absolutely whooped Noskova in Brisbane back in January, winning 6-3, 6-0 in what was an ugly performance by the Czech. However, the two met twice before that match, with Noskova winning at least one set in both of those matches. So, I’m willing to flush the most recent result.
Noskova is just such a talented ball striker, so she can trouble anybody when she’s on her game. And I actually like her fit on slower clay. I know you can say that these courts make it harder to hit winners, but they also give powerful players more time to set their feet and go big. Noskova should benefit from that, especially with her ability to find angles.
I also just don’t trust that Andreeva is healthy right now. Her serve looked good against Emiliana Arango last round, but that came after some poor serving performances in the weeks prior. That includes a miserable one against Coco Gauff in the Madrid quarterfinals. She also hasn’t looked as decisive or dominant from the baseline.
If Andreeva doesn’t serve well against Noskova, the Czech is going to obliterate returns. And if Andreeva is just a little off as a baseliner, the Czech will have her chances to get into this match.
Pick: Noskova +1.5 Sets (-108 – 1.5 units) & Noskova ML (+286 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
