Rome tennis best bets for May 8th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia over the next two weeks. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are going to be motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Keep reading for my picks for Thursday, May 8th. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re in the midst of the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, and we’re covering all of it at VSiN — whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
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Matteo Gigante vs. Arthur Rinderknech
Gigante is a talented young Italian, so the crowd is going to be extremely fired up for this one. We actually just saw Gigante win a Challenger title in Rome a couple of weeks ago, and he has now won 49 clay-court matches at the Challenger level over the last 52 weeks. The southpaw is just very comfortable on this surface, and he comes into this tournament in good form. That, combined with home-court advantage, had me looking his way as soon as I saw the draw.
It doesn’t hurt that Rinderknech has been a disaster lately. The Frenchman is just 3-11 since the start of the 2025 season. His serve hasn’t been as much of a weapon as it usually is, and that’s likely not changing in these slower conditions. And Rinderknech is also a miserable returner, as his break percentage is just 10.9% this year. So, while one of these guys is in great form, the other has completely lost his confidence.
Rinderknech is also just 14-19 against lefties at the ATP level. So, there’s a lot working against him heading into this match.
Pick: Gigante ML (-143)
Gabriel Diallo vs. Marcos Giron
Diallo is coming off one hell of a run in Madrid. The Canadian got into the main draw as a lucky loser, but he ended up eliminating Zizou Bergs, Kamil Majchrzak, Cameron Norrie and Grigor Dimitrov. However, it is important to remember that Madrid is a server-friendly tournament. If you can hit bombs with the ball on your racquet, you can make a run in Spain. But this is going to be an entirely different tournament. So, I love the value on Giron to win this one.
Giron is just a very good player from the back of the court. That said, I like him to get into rallies and then really wear Diallo down. Of course, you can point to the fact that Giron is just 18-28 on clay in his ATP career. But that’s 13 more wins than Diallo has at this level.
I just think Giron has a little too much for Diallo. Outside of a booming first serve, Diallo has a lot of work to do.
Pick: Giron ML (+120)
Marie Bouzkova vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
There isn’t much for me to say about this one. If this match was being played in 2024, I would have been all over Haddad Maia at plus-money odds. The problem is that the Brazilian’s game has fallen off a cliff this year. She’s just 3-13 at the WTA level since the start of the 2025 season, and her numbers as both a server and a returner are miserable. She’s holding at just 57.9% since the start of the year. That’s down from 69.5% last year. She’s also breaking just 24.8% of the time, which is down from 34.8% in 2024.
Perhaps Haddad Maia will snap out of it in Rome. It can really happen anywhere, as she generally has good crowd support and she’s too talented not to. But until I see it, I’m on the fade train.
I think Haddad Maia would benefit from going down a level and winning some matches. Naomi Osaka just did that, winning a title in Saint Malo. She then came to Rome and dominated Sara Errani in straight sets. Just winning matches can go a long way.
Pick: Bouzkova ML (-128)
Reilly Opelka vs. Learner Tien
Opelka might not be known as much of a clay-court player, but he made the semifinals in Rome in 2021. Along the way, he beat Richard Gasquet, Lorenzo Musetti, Aslan Karatsev and Federico Delbonis. He then gave Rafael Nadal some problems in a 6-4, 6-4 loss in the semis. The reality is that Opelka’s serve makes him a dangerous opponent anywhere. When he’s hitting his spots, returners feel helpless. And the slower conditions and higher bounces at a tournament like this one can help Opelka get to more balls when he gets into rallies.
Tien is actually the one with more question marks on this surface. He’s 0-4 on the dirt at the ATP level, and he didn’t play much clay-court tennis while he dominated at the Challenger level. So, while Tien is a good counter puncher, a tough guy to hit the ball by and a solid all-around player, none of that has translated to clay. And that’s because there’s a real learning curve when it comes to this surface. Being a good hard-court mover doesn’t automatically make you a good clay-court mover.
With all of that in mind, I’m taking Opelka to win this match and playing it somewhat big. I think Tien is going to have problems getting into the Opelka serve. I also can see Opelka having a lot of success against the Tien serve — especially when he gets a look at his awful second serve. Let’s just hope Opelka is healthy after he retired in a close match against Ignacio Buse in France last week. The fact it was Opelka’s hip is concerning considering he has had surgery there before. But even if it’s still bothering him, I can’t imagine Opelka playing through the first set. So, if he looks bad and retires early, this play should be voided. Know your house rules!
Pick: Opelka ML (-105 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
