Rome tennis best bets for May 14th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the next couple of days. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Keep reading for my picks for Wednesday, May 14th. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re in the midst of the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, and we’re covering all of it at VSiN — whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Mirra Andreeva vs. Coco Gauff
I don’t have that strong of a feeling on how this one is going to go on the court. I had Andreeva to beat Gauff in Madrid, and that ended up being a pretty lopsided win for the American. However, Andreeva did serve for the opening set, and she had two set points at 5-4. From there, she really started to play some sloppy tennis. Then, Gauff found another gear and sprinted to the finish line, winning 7-5, 6-1 in an hour and 32 minutes. Gauff is now 3-0 against Andreeva in her career, and that’s what the Russian is working against here. Can the 18-year-old get over that mental hurdle and beat Gauff? In terms of talent and clay-court ability, there’s nothing preventing her from doing so. Also, Andreeva was -122 against Gauff in Madrid, but she’s +119 here. So, there’s inherently some value in backing the teenager. The odds shouldn’t move that much in two weeks — especially with Andreeva being at her best on slower courts.
I just think Gauff is going to have a hard time hitting winners against Andreeva, as she does rack up unforced errors — especially from the forehand wing — when she’s worrying too much about hitting big. However, Andreeva needs to hit with depth to the Gauff forehand, which she didn’t do in Spain. She also needs to be better with the ball on her racquet.
All in all, I had Andreeva as a 2-unit play when she was -122 against Gauff in Madrid. So, while I’m taking a half-unit off because of what we saw last time, I’m not fully backing off the Russian. I think there’s very little that separates these two players, and I believe in Andreeva to learn from that last outing.
Pick: Andreeva ML (+119 – 1.5 units)
Other Quick Notes
A bunch of my futures will be decided in Wednesday’s matches, which is why I don’t have a ton picks for a loaded four-match slate. Anybody that tailed me should be sitting on Aryna Sabalenka to win Quarter 1 (-140), Carlos Alcaraz to win Quarter 3 (-140) and Lorenzo Musetti to win Quarter 4 (+360). I’m not going to hedge any of those plays, as I feel good about two of the three winning. But there are decent numbers out there if you’re looking to take less risks than I am. You can get Zheng at +250, Draper at +221 and Zverev at -145.
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
