On Friday, May 16th, Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz will clash in the semifinals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. This battle at the Foro Italico in Rome features a rematch of the final from the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, where Alcaraz beat Musetti in three sets. Will things go the same way in Italy? Keep reading for some thoughts on how the meeting between Musetti and Alcaraz will go down in Rome.
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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Odds accurate as of Thursday, May 15th at 8:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alcaraz -300, Musetti +230
Spread: Alcaraz -3.5 Games (-140), Musetti +3.5 Games (+105)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-120), Under 21.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: Foro Italico in Rome, Italy
When: Friday, May 16th at 9:30 am ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
In my pre-tournament futures story, I gave out Musetti and Alcaraz to win their quarters and win this tournament. So, if you normally enjoy my work and took my advice, there’s no reason to play anything here. We’ll just hope the winner of this thing is healthy heading into a potential final against a red-hot Jannik Sinner. However, this is the definition of a box-office showdown, so people will understandably be looking to bet something. Well, if I had to make a selection here, I’d be going with Musetti to win a set. And this would be a pretty sizable play for me. I’d also sprinkle the moneyline.
Alcaraz has had Musetti’s number early in this rivalry, as he’s 4-1 in five career meetings with the Italian. But the final these two played in Monte-Carlo a month ago marked the first time these two have played in 2025, and Musetti was able to win a set there. That’s significant because 2025 Musetti is a different beast than 2024 Musetti. This year, Musetti has career highs in win percentage (73.1%), hold percentage (80.9%) and break percentage (26.2%). He has also made three 1000-level semifinals, which is something he had never done heading into this year.
Musetti is just brimming with confidence, and he’s starting to truly live up to his potential. This is a player with a gorgeous one-handed backhand, insane all-court ability and an outrageous amount of creativity in rallies. Now, he’s a little sturdier in every facet of the game, and that’s making him a tough player to beat when also considering how good he is at defending along the baseline. He’s a special athlete, and he uses that to get as many balls as he can in play. But unlike most grinders, he also has the ability to go on offense and dictate play.
The Musetti return game is what I’m really interested in seeing. Alcaraz’s serve has seemingly gotten worse from last year to this year, which is brutal considering his serve wasn’t in a great place last season. The Spaniard just never seems to hold easily, and Musetti is one of the best returners on tour. So, the Italian should be able to make Alcaraz sweat whenever the ball is on his racquet.
Of course, you might be asking why all of that didn’t stop Musetti from playing a more competitive match in Monte-Carlo. But you know what? The Italian won the opening set in that one. And he honestly might have won the match if his body didn’t let him down. Musetti got injured in that final, and he had to limp to the finish line. And that happened because Musetti played a bunch of three-set matches on his way to finals. Well, he has avoided that in Rome. Musetti has won four matches in the Eternal City, and he won all of them in straight sets. So, his body should be fresh when he hits the clay, and he’ll also have the added adrenaline from the Italian crowd.
Speaking of the crowd, Alcaraz is used to being adored by the fans, but this has the potential to be an interesting atmosphere. These fans are going to be going absolutely insane in trying to will Musetti into the final, and Alcaraz might have trouble dealing with that. And we have seen all year that Alcaraz’s mood directly impacts his play. When things aren’t extremely clear for Alcaraz upstairs, he starts to miss his targets. And he generally aims for small targets to begin with.
If Musetti can just put a ton of balls in play — and do his best to put them deep in the court — he should be able to get to Alcaraz and find a way into this match. And we really should know pretty early. Alcaraz will either have it from the forehand side or he won’t. But, given all the context heading into this match, I don’t anticipate smooth sailing on the Spaniard’s part. And it seems as though the oddsmakers agree. Despite the fact that Alcaraz won comfortably in Monte-Carlo, he went from a -400 moneyline favorite in Monaco to a -300 favorite in Rome.
Match Lean: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-125)
