On Friday, July 11th, Carlos Alcaraz will take on Taylor Fritz in the 2025 Wimbledon semifinals. Alcaraz is looking to win this tournament for the third year in a row, and he’s also looking to win the Channel Slam for the second year in a row. So, there’s some real history on the line with the Spaniard these next couple of days, but that doesn’t mean Fritz is going to let him walk into the finals. The American has been the best player on grass throughout the course of a short grass-court season, and Alcaraz has been sloppy at the All England Club. That said, let’s get into some analysis with a Fritz vs. Alcaraz betting preview.
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Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, July 8th at 10:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alcaraz -600, Fritz +425
Spread: Alcaraz -5.5 Games (-115), Fritz +5.5 Games (-115)
Total: Over 38.5 Games (-110), Under 38.5 Games (-125)
How To Watch Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Friday, July 11th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
People that regularly read my work probably think I’m an Alcaraz hater. I’m often picking against the Spaniard, and it has been quite some time since I cashed a significant future on him. The reason I mention the latter is that I used to back him to win tournaments frequently. Well, the honest truth is that Alcaraz’s up-and-down game makes things very difficult on tennis analysts and handicappers. The very best version of Alcaraz is nearly impossible to beat, and there’s nothing like watching him when he’s on his game. With that in mind, I’m far from an Alcaraz hater. He’s one of my favorite players to watch, and his presence on tour is absolutely huge for the sport. However, we don’t see the Spaniard’s top level as often as we should. And even when he’s piling up wins, he tends to throw away sets. That’s why I generally end up picking against him, or taking Overs in his matches. And you know what? In the matches Tennislytics has tracked this year, Alcaraz is 23-29 against the spread and the Over is 29-23. So, picking on him, or looking for his matches to be sneaky competitive, might be the right strategy. And it’s definitely my strategy in this match.
I’m going to the Over on 3.5 sets in the semis. I have played this in all five of Fritz’s matches so far, and I hit all of them except for the Jordan Thompson match in the Round of 16. That one ended in a push because Thompson was forced to retire, but this has still been one of the most profitable bets in the tournament.
Normally, I’m hoping that Fritz’s lack of focus, or weakness on return, leads to a tiebreaker or two, giving the underdog in his match a chance to sneak a set. This match is different in that Fritz is the one that is going to have to sneak one. But I’d be surprised if the American can’t.
Over the last 52 weeks, Fritz is second on the ATP Tour in hold percentage (89.8%) — and he turns things up on grass. That bomb of a serve is a big part of the reason Fritz has won titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne already this year. So, even against one of the best returners in the world, I like Fritz to give himself a shot at winning a few sets in this match. From there, he’ll just need to come through in the clutch in one of them.
In the past, I wouldn’t have felt great about Fritz coming up with the goods against a player with Alcaraz’s all-court game. But this is a different version of Fritz. Much to my surprise, he has been returning at an absurd level in London, thanks in part to some changes made to his forehand return. He’s doing a really good job of just blocking that shot back, which could be big against Alcaraz. The Spaniard likes to serve forehand side, and Fritz could have the length and technique to get a bunch of those back. And if Alcaraz overcorrects by going to the backhand side, that’s also dangerous. Fritz has one of the best backhands on tour.
Alcaraz was also struggling with his serve before beating up on Cameron Norrie last match, which is why he dropped two sets against Fabio Fognini and then one set apiece against Jan-Lennard Struff and Andrey Rublev. Well, if he’s not hitting his spots the way he was during his title run at Queen’s Club, I can’t see Fritz failing to capitalize.
There’s also something to be said about Fritz’s willingness to grind from the baseline. He’s not your average big server; he’s a good mover and a tough person to hit the ball by. That could force Alcaraz to go big, which is when the Spaniard gets in trouble with unforced errors.
The only thing I’m a little worried about is Fritz’s transition game. If Alcaraz is hitting his dropshot well, he’ll have Fritz moving forward and in a vulnerable position. Fritz is awkward in the middle of the court, and he’s shaky approaching the net. But even that wouldn’t be a deathblow to Fritz. Even if Alcaraz is dominating rallies, Fritz’s big serve will give him a chance to sneak a tiebreaker.
I’m simply viewing this as a play on Fritz to win one set, but I’m taking it this way because the odds are much better and I don’t think a straight-set win for the American is in play. I think Alcaraz wins, but it could be a tad closer than expected. Fritz is a gamer.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-139)
