Tennis best bets and predictions for ATP Toronto and WTA Montreal – Thursday, August 10th
The US Open is just about a month away, which means tennis season is really heating up. There will be a lot of big tournaments over the next couple of weeks, so VSiN is here to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. With that in mind, keep reading to get my picks for Thursday, August 10th. This week, the focus is on the National Bank Open in Toronto and Omnium National Bank in Montreal — two 1000-level events. I’ll look to make picks on both the men and the women, and I’ll probably be adding more to these columns each day. So, make sure you refresh for more picks — or click the link below for the Pro Picks page.
Milos Raonic vs. Mackenzie McDonald
McDonald is coming off a very impressive win over Andrey Rublev, but it’s hard to trust the American to string together multiple high-level performances in a row. And McDonald now faces a player that will leave him with little margin for error. Raonic hasn’t played any tennis over the last couple of years, but he hasn’t missed a beat with his serve. He has been holding with ease thus far, and that’s trouble for a player like McDonald that can occasionally give away service games.
It’s also just hard to ignore the type of support Raonic is getting from the Canadian crowd. They are really helping him raise his level, and it definitely seemed to get in the heads of his previous two opponents. Frances Tiafoe and Taro Daniel are two players that generally don’t make a lot of mistakes, but they were spraying errors against Raonic. I can see McDonald suffering the same fate. And I ultimately just see Raonic having the leg up late in deep sets, which should make the difference in this one.
Bet: Raonic ML (-125)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Casper Ruud
Davidovich Fokina’s 6-1, 6-2 win over Alexander Zverev was incredibly impressive, and he has now dropped a total of five games through two victories in Toronto. The Spaniard looks to be very confident at this point in time, but I do think he’s in for a rude awakening (no pun intended) in the Round of 16. It’s hard to say this is a significant jump in competition for Davidovich Fokina, as Zverev is one of the most talented players on tour. But Ruud has a ton of game himself, and he happens to be a more reliable player.
I just see Ruud forcing a ton of unforced errors out of Davidovich Fokina, using his looping, spin-heavy strokes to try and get the Spaniard to overhit. Ruud also happens to be coming off a very nice performance against Jiri Lehecka, where he showed nerves of steel in erasing a big deficit in the first-set tiebreaker. That should have allowed Ruud to calm his nerves and get settled into this tournament, where he genuinely has a chance to make an extended run.
I also trust Ruud a little more with the ball on his racquet. Davidovich Fokina has been doing a better job of holding in 2023, but he’s still nowhere near Ruud when it comes to hold percentage.
Bet: Ruud ML (-145 – 2 units)
Andy Murray vs. Jannik Sinner
Murray’s performance against Max Purcell wasn’t all that inspiring, and the 36-year-old might be a little tired after having played a lengthy three-set match there. But I still believe that Murray is playing some very good tennis right now, and I think we can learn a lot from his match against Taylor Fritz at the Citi Open. Murray absorbed all of Fritz’s power in that one, using his elite defense to extend points and force errors out of the talented young American. I can see the same thing happening with Sinner here, in addition to Murray using his improved offense to his advantage.
For as good as Sinner is, I still think he freezes up a bit in matches against some of the legends of the sport. Even though Murray isn’t anything close to what he used to be, he still plays at a near top-20 level. And once he starts barking to his box out there, it’s clear he believes he can win any match. That might intimidate Sinner just a little here.
On top of all that, I believe Sinner was a little fortunate in his win over Matteo Berrettini last round. He was 7 for 7 on break point saves and converted on 50.0% of his break point opportunities. But overall, his level wasn’t all that high in the match. So, I do believe Murray can push him to three and I’m sprinkling a little on the moneyline, too. When Murray drags players into the mud, he usually is the one that comes out of it.
Bet: Murray +1.5 Sets (-105 – 1.5 units) & Murray ML (+300 – 0.5 units)
Danielle Collins vs. Leylah Fernandez
Collins had to go through qualifying to get into this tournament, but we all know she’s a top-15 player in the world when she’s healthy. And the American has definitely looked healthy since arriving in Montreal, where she has earned straight-set wins over Elina Svitolina and Maria Sakkari. Now, I love the American to really take it to Fernandez.
Fernandez will definitely get something of a boost from playing on home soil, but she had to grind her way to a three-set win over Beatriz Haddad Maia last match. I’m expecting her to be a little fatigued for this one, and I also think Collins is going to abuse the Canadian’s weak serve. That said, I love Collins to win this match. So, I’m playing it bigger than usual.
Bet: Collins ML (-140 – 2.5 units)
Taylor Fritz ML (-130 – 2 units) vs. Alex De Minaur
Gael Monfils -1.5 Games (-130 – 2.5 units) vs. Aleksandar Vukic
Marketa Vondrousova ML (+100 – 2 units) vs. Coco Gauff
Sloane Stephens +1.5 Sets (+100) vs. Elena Rybakina