French Open best bets for Wednesday, May 29th
It’s time for the second major of this exciting 2024 tennis season, as the top ATP and WTA players in the world will be in Paris for the 2024 French Open. The action at Roland Garros should be stellar over the course of this fantastic tournament. I already went ahead and previewed some of the action in my French Open tournament preview, where I broke down the draws and gave out some of my favorite futures. But I’ll be doing my daily tennis best bets here. So, keep reading for some of my favorite plays for Day 4 of the French Open, which will be played on Wednesday, May 29th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 323-339 (+25.68 units)
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Zhizhen Zhang
Sonego has won 51 clay-court matches at the ATP level and is known for his ability to perform on the dirt. But Sonego has been miserable since the start of the 2024 season, and he’s just not a player you can count on at the moment. That’s why it’s hard to back off Zhang at plus-money odds. Zhang won four matches in Rome last week and those conditions mimic the ones at Roland Garros. He is an underrated clay-court performer, and his raw Elo rating on the dirt is actually higher than Sonego’s. When you combine that with the recent form, this just feels like a match in which the wrong player might be favored. I’m not going overly big on this one, as Sonego is capable of redlining on this surface. But I want a little something on Zhang, who has the ability to go really big from the baseline. And while Zhang’s serve can leave a little to be a desired for a player with his overall strength, Sonego has been miserable as a returner all year.
Bet: Zhang ML (+105)
Denis Shapovalov vs. Frances Tiafoe
I faded Tiafoe in his match against Mattia Bellucci last round. I had Bellucci to cover 6.5 games and he nearly won the match outright, pushing Tiafoe in a hard-fought five-set match. Now, Tiafoe faces another left-handed player, but this one is a lot better. Shapovalov has an absolute missile of a serve and he also packs a lot of punch from the baseline. On top of that, Shapovalov is 4-3 on clay since the start of the Mutua Madrid Open. Meanwhile, Tiafoe was 1-4 on European clay before beating Bellucci. These are just two players that are moving in opposite directions right now. And not only is Shapovalov a little sharper on clay, but he’s also 4-2 against Tiafoe in his career. The Canadian is also coming off a straight-set win in the opening round, while Tiafoe played for nearly four hours. So, Shapovalov should have a little more energy than the American. Overall, there’s a reason he’s such a heavy favorite, despite being ranked outside the Top 100.
Bet: Shapovalov ML (-170 – 1.5 units)
Amanda Anisimova vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Samsonova surprisingly made a run to the semifinals in Strasbourg, but the Russian has a losing record on clay in her career. This just isn’t a very good surface for her, as she can occasionally look like she’s stuck in the mud when moving along the baseline. Samsonova prefers faster hard-court tennis, and she’ll undoubtedly be a factor in the run to the US Open. But she’s a threat to be bounced pretty quickly in Paris, even though she earned a quick 6-1, 6-1 win over Magda Linette last round. And I just wouldn’t be surprised if Anisimova were to be the one to eliminate her.
Anisimova has some of the most impressive all-court power on the WTA Tour, but she’s also a little more comfortable moving on clay than Samsonova is. And while Samsonova has a losing record on this surface, Anisimova is 33-20 on clay in her career. All in all, I just wouldn’t be surprised if her power makes for a really uncomfortable match for Samsonova, who will have no chance of chasing down the ball. If Anisimova just serves at a decent level here, she’s going to have a real shot at winning this.
Bet: Anisimova ML (+152)
Corentin Moutet vs. Alexander Shevchenko
Stan Wawrinka vs. Pavel Kotov
I really like Moutet to beat Shevchenko here, but his playing style makes it hard to suggest laying games or sets. Moutet just isn’t a big enough server, so I can see him losing a lopsided set somewhere along the way. But I do think he’ll win this match, as he’s a better clay-court player than Shevchenko and will be playing in front of the French crowd. Some players shrink when playing in front of their own fans, as the pressure can be a little too much for them. But Moutet is a showman and the atmosphere brings the very best out of him. That’s why I’m playing Moutet moneyline as the first play in a two-leg parlay.
For the second leg, I’m going with Wawrinka on an alternate line of +6.5 games. Wawrinka is going to have his work cut out for him against Kotov, but I trust the 2015 French Open champion to keep this thing close. Wawrinka’s body should be feeling good after a straight-set win over Andy Murray in the opening round, and he’s still a great player when he’s feeling fresh. Wawrinka is also especially tough on slower clay courts, as it allows him to play better defense than normal at his age. It also gives him some time to load up and really rip his groundstrokes. Kotov is also coming off a very tight five-set win over Cameron Norrie in the opening round. And while Kotov is incredibly talented, the 25-year-old isn’t in the best physical condition. So, I’m not sure how he’ll respond to that lengthy match, and I just can’t see him whooping Wawrinka.
PARLAY: Moutet ML + Wawrinka +6.5 Games (-119 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
Aidan Mayo +4.5 Games (-120 – 1.5 units) vs. Mitchell Krueger [Little Rock Challenger]
