We have been trying all year to provide you with some of the best tennis betting content around. Throughout the season, I have been writing up tournament previews and daily best bets for some of the biggest tournaments on the tennis calendar. Meanwhile, Gill Alexander is constantly feeding his A Numbers Game viewers and listeners with picks. The two of us also teamed up for the VSiN French Open Betting Primer, dishing out some analysis on the top players in the world and breaking down some of our favorite pre-tournament futures. Well, now it’s actually time for the French Open, which is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year.
There’s all sorts of storylines heading into this one, including Iga Swiatek searching for her fourth title at Roland Garros. There’s also 14-time champion Rafael Nadal potentially going for his last tango in Paris, while Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner try to knock off defending champion Novak Djokovic. With all of the drama set to unfold, you’re going to want to make sure you check out some of the action. And I’ll be here throughout the tournament with best bets to help you get yourselves in on that action. Below you’ll find my French Open futures, along with some early Round 1 best bets.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 315-330 (+28.63 units)
French Open Men’s Draw Analysis
Quarter 1: This feels like a pretty tough draw for Djokovic. The defending champion should be able to breeze into the second round, but Robert Carballes Baena has the potential to be a tricky matchup. Then, it’s possible Djokovic will need to face a talented Lorenzo Musetti after that. And if everything goes smoothly for both favorites, Djokovic has a potential clash with Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals. That would be a rematch of last year’s final, but Ruud will feel better about it this time. Djokovic’s game has tailed off since the end of the 2023 season, while Ruud has taken his game to new heights. There was no better example of that than Ruud’s win over Djokovic in Monte Carlo this year.
Quarter 2: I didn’t know Nadal was going to draw Alexander Zverev when I told people not to bet him last week. But it definitely seems like the Spaniard is looking at an opening-round exit now that the draw revealed that shocking matchup. Zverev is coming off a title run in Rome and is playing some great tennis right now. So, this matchup is the last thing Nadal needed. And even if the King of Clay is able to find a way to emerge victorious, it’s likely going to take him at least four sets. That will take a huge physical toll on his body, setting him up for a loss in the second or third round. But ultimately, it’d be surprising if Zverev doesn’t win. After all, he’s a massive betting favorite. And Zverev has to feel good about his draw overall, as Daniil Medvedev is the second-highest seed in the quarter. Medvedev has not had much success at the French Open, and his clay-court season has been full of ups and downs already.
One player to keep an eye on here is Mariano Navone. He has been one of the breakout stars of the clay season. I think there’s a real shot he makes the quarterfinals.
Quarter 3: Alcaraz’s forearm is undoubtedly a concern, but he has to love his draw. There’s a good chance he isn’t tested until the quarterfinals, where he’d presumably face Andrey Rublev or Stefanos Tsitsipas. Alcaraz lost to Rublev in Madrid, but that was when he was a little more banged up. And I’m just not sure Rublev has what it takes to beat Alcaraz in a best-of-five match, especially on a slower surface. The altitude in Madrid made it a little easier on Rublev, who is the definition of a ball basher. He’ll have a rougher go at it in slower conditions, where Alcaraz’s next-level baseline variety — and defensive ability — makes him a special player. And Alcaraz has owned Tsitsipas on clay in his career. Realistically, Alcaraz is my pick to win this tournament. I just don’t think the odds are enticing enough.
Quarter 4: If Sinner is healthy, he should breeze through this quarter. A potential matchup with Nicolas Jarry has the potential to be a physical battle, but Sinner has a little too much all-around game for him. And Hubert Hurkacz’s half of this quarter is rather weak. It should be either Hurkacz or Grigor Dimitrov that goes on to face Sinner in the quarterfinals, but the Italian should be able to handle either one of them relatively easily.
French Open Women’s Draw Analysis
Quarter 1: Swiatek’s worst-case scenario would be facing a gauntlet that includes Naomi Osaka, Veronika Kudermetova, Ekaterina Alexandrova and Danielle Collins all before the semifinals. But this is still Swiatek on clay. And she’s 28-2 at Roland Garros in her career. So, even though some of these matches will test her, Swiatek failing to reach the semifinals would be one of the more shocking results of the entire 2024 season.
Quarter 2: Coco Gauff is the top-seeded player in this quarter, but this is one to watch closely. Gauff is a tremendous clay-court player, but she has had an up-and-down season thus far. And overall, I think she’s very beatable right now. Gauff’s serve and forehand can be a little inconsistent, making this quarter the land of opportunity. I won’t personally be playing any futures in here, as I just can’t find anybody I trust enough. I have been down on Ons Jabeur all year, but maybe this draw will allow her to snap out of her funk. I’m also keeping my eye on a pair of Americans, as I can see Amanda Anisimova or Sofia Kenin surprising people over the next few weeks.
Quarter 3: If Elena Rybakina isn’t healthy, this quarter also has the potential to give us some chaos. Rybakina hasn’t yet made a mark on the French Open, but she won the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in 2023. So, she has proven that she can do big things on slow clay courts. And overall, Rybakina has clearly been the third-best player in the women’s game over the last few years. So, she has a nice opportunity in front of her with this favorable draw. But Elina Svitolina or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova would make for tough matchups down the road. And she would have her work cut out for her if she has to play Qinwen Zheng in the quarterfinals.
Quarter 4: Aryna Sabalenka is the player to beat in Quarter 4, but it’s not a given that she’ll make it to the semifinals. Madison Keys is one player that could very well stand in her way, and I’m interested in taking a position on the American to win this quarter. Keys has had a lot more success on clay than you’d think, and her ability to serve, return and hit for power makes her a tough out. Maria Sakkari is the other top-seeded player in this section of the draw, but I’d be surprised if she beat Sabalenka or Keys. If anything, I can see Mirra Andreeva presenting more problems for Sabalenka or Keys, if the teenager is able to make it to the quarterfinals.
French Open Futures
Jannik Sinner To Win (+460 – 1.5 units) – I gave out Sinner to win this tournament at +460, but you can find him at +500 now. Sinner enters this tournament with some real uncertainty, as he has been nursing a hip injury that was believed to be serious. But Sinner is in the field in Paris. And if he’s playing, it’s hard not to like him to win. Sinner is 28-3 since the start of the 2024 season, and he also happens to be first in hold percentage and third in break percentage. On top of that, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations say he has the highest shot quality in tennis from both the forehand and backhand sides since the start of clay season. He’s just a world-class player in every facet of the game. With that in mind, I can’t pass up playing him at these odds. Sinner has been a better player than both Alcaraz and Djokovic this year, but you’re getting a better price on him to win.
Casper Ruud To Win (+1200 – 0.5 units) – With Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic all entering this tournament with some concerns, it’s viewed as one that could be open for some of the other competitors. And while I ultimately think this thing will go to Alcaraz or Sinner, I want a little something on Ruud in the event this turns out to be a crazy tournament. Ruud is a back-to-back French Open runner-up and has more wins on clay than any other player in the last 52 weeks. Ruud is also a better player in 2024 than he was in 2022 or 2023. So, it’s hard to rule out the possibility of him breaking through and one day winning this tournament, which is easily his best of the four majors. And if he is going to do it, one would think it’d be in an odd year like this. So, I grabbed this at +1200 a few days ago. You can do a little better than that if you take it today.
Iga Swiatek To Win (-110 – 3 units) – Swiatek is the defending champion in Paris and has already won this event three times. The Pole also happens to be coming into this one after having won back-to-back 1000-level titles on clay. Swiatek claimed a title in Madrid, earning a hard-fought win over Sabalenka in an epic final. That was really impressive considering the faster conditions in Madrid are perfect for the Belarusian. Then, Swiatek made it two in a row with a title run in Rome, where she beat the brakes off Sabalenka in the final. The conditions in Rome are very slow, much like they are in Paris. So, the dominant play we saw from Swiatek should continue at Roland Garros.
All in all, Swiatek is just way too good along the baseline at this tournament, and her ability to return makes facing her a nightmare. Unfortunately, you’ll have to deal with some significant juice to play Swiatek at this point. But the reality is that it’s probably worth it. She was a -400 favorite against Sabalenka in the Rome final. That’s the second-best player in the world.
Mariano Navone To Win Quarter 2 (+3500 – 0.25 units) – As previously mentioned, I wouldn’t be surprised if Navone makes the quarterfinals. And while this play takes that a step forward, hedging should be an option once Navone wins a few matches. Navone is 12-7 on clay since the start of 2024, giving him the fifth-most wins on the surface. He’s also second in the world in break percentage on clay in that time. On top of that Navone’s draw is a dream. He’ll face an out-of-form Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round, the winner of Nuno Borges and Tomas Machac in the second and then probably Daniil Medvedev in the third. I think that match against Medvedev is winnable, which is why this is a play for me.
Madison Keys To Win Quarter 4 (+1400 – 0.5 units) – Keys is surprisingly 75-46 on clay at the WTA level. She’s also playing some of the best tennis of anyone coming into this tournament. Keys made the semifinals in Madrid, where she beat Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur before falling to Swiatek. She then won another three matches in Rome, with one of those being against Beatriz Haddad Maia, a very good clay-court player. Unfortunately, she ran into Swiatek again. Keys is now in the final in Strasbourg, where some solid players were in the field. All in all, not many players possess Keys’ form right now. And her underrated all-court ability should make her dangerous at Roland Garros. I think she has a real shot at making the semis, so I’m putting a little something on this. If she ends up facing Sabalenka, I’ll look into hedging.
French Open Best Bets – Sunday, May 26th
Hugo Gaston vs. Ben Shelton
I usually have no interest dealing with juice like this on a single match, but these odds imply Shelton wins this match only 65.3% of the time. I think that’s a pretty conservative number. So, I’m going to bite the bullet and play this on the moneyline, as I’d rather not go the way of the game spread here. I know Gaston will be playing in front of a home crowd here, but he was playing some lousy tennis before the small tournament in Lyon. And while Gaston is definitely a guy that prefers playing on clay, Shelton has been better than expected on this surface. And overall, the American just has a certain firepower that Gaston will have trouble matching. We just saw Gaston struggle in a similar match, as he lost to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Lyon. Well, Shelton has even more weapons. I also don’t think the American will have trouble dealing with the crowd. He loves playing in front of an energetic crowd, whether it’s for or against him.
Bet: Shelton ML (-188)
Alize Cornet vs. Qinwen Zheng
Cornet already announced that the 2024 French Open would be her final tournament. With that in mind, she’s going to throw absolutely everything into this match. Cornet will also have the crowd firmly in her corner, which could get to Zheng. Cornet has also had a lot of success on clay in her career, while Zheng is relatively unproven on this surface. Zheng has played only 33 WTA-level matches on the dirt in her career, but Cornet is 121-109 on clay in her career. The Frenchwoman just has a good understanding of what it takes to win on this surface, so I expect her to stay competitive by playing with shape and variety. Zheng should eventually figure out a way to overcome that, and her power should win out in the end. But I think Cornet has the ability to cover this massive game spread. I also think it’s worth sprinkling the 34-year-old to win a set.
Bet: Cornet +6.5 Games (-110) & Cornet +1.5 Sets (+300 – 0.5 units)
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