Internazionali BNL d’Italia tournament preview, plus best bets for Tuesday, May 7th
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a massive clay-court event in Rome over the next two weeks. The Italian Open is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action for this 1000-level event. Below you’ll find some of my favorite futures plays for this tournament, as well as my best bets for Tuesday, May 7th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 259-276 (+24.43 units)
Italian Open Conditions
ITF Court Rating has Rome as a Category 1 tournament, which means it classifies as a “slow” event. However, the same can be said of each of the last couple of tournaments. So, don’t fall into the trap of expecting the same thing here. This week’s tournament will play a lot slower than the Mutua Madrid Open, which was played at altitude and meant much faster conditions. You’ll see higher and slower bounces in Rome, meaning it’ll be easier to return powerful shots. And overall, baseline play and defense will be rewarded here.
Italian Open Women’s Futures
Iga Swiatek To Win (+140 – 2 units): Swiatek was able to win a faster clay-court event last week, and that doesn’t bode well for her peers. Swiatek had never won a title in Madrid before last week, with the altitude making it harder on the Pole to set her feet and hit her world-class groundstrokes. But Swiatek has made some changes to her serve and forehand. She’s now holding at a career-high rate and her process is a little faster from the baseline. Swiatek can no longer be rushed from back there, making her more dangerous in quicker conditions. But this is the slow stuff, where Swiatek has been unbeatable in the past. She likely would have won a third consecutive title in Rome last year, but she had to withdraw in the third set of her quarter-final match against Elena Rybakina. Well, I like the 22-year-old to lift the trophy here again, and I also think she’ll go on to win the French Open. There’s just a large gap between her and everybody else on this surface.
Jasmine Paolini To Reach Final (22-1 – 0.25 units): I think Paolini has a real shot at winning her quarter, but that bet wasn’t available. So, I’m playing the Italian to reach the final. The reality is that it’s just one more match. So, I can either let it ride or hedge if we get in that position. But overall, I just love Paolini’s athleticism and ability to play defense. And her forehand is hit with a lot of topspin, which is huge at a tournament like this. Paolini also has a ridiculous amount of heart, so I like the idea of betting on her in her home tournament. She’s going to fight like hell here, and she happens to have a good draw. Paolini is in Rybakina’s quarter and I think there’s a decent shot the defending champion gets bounced somewhat early. And even if she doesn’t, Paolini has the game to give her trouble if the Italian can make it to that point.
Italian Open Men’s Futures
Novak Djokovic To Win (+187 – 2 units): We haven’t seen Djokovic since he lost to Casper Ruud in the Monte Carlo semifinals, and we haven’t seen the very best of the Serbian in 2024. But Djokovic has had almost a month to get his body right, so he should be pretty healthy right now. He’s also the best player in this field, by far. With no Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz, Djokovic really should be able to win this event. And this also happens to be one of Djokovic’s best tournaments. Djokovic usually takes some time to get ramped up in the clay-court season, but he has always had success in Italy. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has won six times in Rome and I like him to lift the trophy again. The only match I’m really worried about is a potential quarter-final showdown with Ruud, but I’m also taking the Norwegian because I think the winner of that match wins the tournament.
Casper Ruud To Win (12-1 – 0.5 units): Ruud was unable to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in Madrid, but that tournament is a lot better for big servers. If those two played in the grittier conditions in Italy, Ruud probably would have come up with enough to win. But that loss was probably good for Ruud, who had played a lot of tennis in the previous two weeks. Now, Ruud has had some time to recover for this tournament — and the French Open. And there’s no reason he can’t do some special things this week. Ruud is a top-five player in the world on this surface, so getting him at these odds is hard to turn down. As I mentioned earlier, I think the winner of Ruud’s potential match against Djokovic will win this event.
Italian Open Tennis Best Bets for Tuesday, May 7th
Camila Osorio vs. Arantxa Rus – Rome
You don’t hear much about clay-court specialists on the WTA side, but Osorio would definitely qualify. The 22-year-old is a ridiculous 39-15 on clay in her career, despite being 30-38 on other surfaces. But Osorio’s poor play elsewhere generally allows you to get good prices on her on the dirt. And that’s exactly what’s happening here. Rus is going to have a big advantage over Osorio in the power department, but that shouldn’t matter all that much. Osorio is a grinder and knows how to get the job done in slower conditions. Look for her to really dig in and return at a high level here, and don’t be surprised if she dominates points won on longer rallies.
Bet: Osorio ML (-138 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays for Tuesday, May 7th
Diana Shnaider ML (-225) vs. Greet Minnen [Rome]
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