Italian Open best bets for Sabalenka vs. Swiatek – Saturday, May 18th
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with the women’s final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, the final 1000-level event before the 2024 French Open. This match will feature a rematch of the final in Madrid, with Aryna Sabalenka taking on Iga Swiatek. So, make sure you keep reading for my thoughts on the match, and keep scrolling for some of my other best bets from around the world on Saturday, May 18th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 299-316 (+24.82 units)
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek – Rome Final
I already have Iga Swiatek to win this tournament at +140 odds, which I suggested putting two units on in my Italian Open preview. With that in mind, I’m not going to be getting involved in this match. Swiatek should be able to find a way to get the job done, especially considering she’s as high as a -400 favorite in some spots. And overall, the conditions in Rome are a lot slower, and that suits Swiatek perfectly. It’s also hard to ignore that when also considering Swiatek beat Sabalenka in Madrid two weeks ago. The altitude in Madrid makes for a much faster game, and that leveled the playing field for Sabalenka. The Belarusian won’t find herself in a favorable situation here. However, I do think the odds here are a little outrageous. Swiatek should win this match, but it’s never really easy against Sabalenka. So, I wouldn’t hate a play on Sabalenka +5.5 games.
The last three clay-court matches between these two have been decided by five games or fewer, so it feels like a relatively safe bet. I also don’t think you can count out Sabalenka winning a set. The reality is that Sabalenka can be tough to beat when she’s serving well. And there’s really no reason she shouldn’t be able to do that here. There’s very little pressure on her, as nobody really expects her to win this match.
All in all, I like Swiatek to win this match and head into the French Open with two titles in a row. But I don’t see her completely dominating from start to finish. Swiatek is known for winning ugly.
Lean: Sabalenka +5.5 Games (-175)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Lorenzo Sonego ML vs. JJ Wolf [Turin Challenger] + Emma Navarro ML vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse [WTA Paris] (-130 – 1.5 units)
