Miami Open finals previews and tennis best bets
The second half of the “Sunshine Double” is the Miami Open, which takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. This tournament, much like the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, is one of the biggest non-majors of the year. With that in mind, we wanted to have you covered with tennis best bets throughout. That continues with picks for the men’s final between Grigor Dimitrov and Jannik Sinner on Sunday, March 31st. Keep reading for my picks and make sure you check the Pro Picks page for more. Gill Alexander puts a lot of tennis picks on that page, and you definitely want to see what he’s taking.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Results: 174-192 (+11.31 units)
Miami Open Men’s Final: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner absolutely dominated Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, earning a 6-1, 6-2 win in a little over an hour. That was a match that many expected to be close, and I was on the Russian in that spot. But Sinner just didn’t give him an inch. Medvedev, who is one of the best returners in the world, looked lost when it was Sinner’s turn to serve. And the Italian was relentless in putting pressure on Medvedev when he was returning. It was just a flawless performance from Sinner, who is in the midst of a historic season. But I have a hard time not backing Dimitrov to at least make a run at this.
Dimitrov has played some of the best tennis of his career in Miami, as he earned a straightforward 6-2, 6-4 win over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals and backed it up with a 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-4 win over Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. The latter was a little harder for Dimitrov, but it still felt like he was in control the whole time. He has just had such a clear vision for how he wants to play this week, and that has brought out the best in him. Dimitrov has been on the attack for most of the tournament, moving his opponents around and then coming up to execute at the net. The Bulgarian has also been as sturdy as they come as both a server and returner. If he continues to do that, he can make Sinner sweat.
I’m putting a big play on Dimitrov to at least force a decider here. I just think we’ll see some close sets in this match, and I think a determined Dimitrov will lean on his experience in big moments. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. The reality is that the version of Dimitrov that beat Alcaraz and Zverev can beat anyone.
Bet: Dimitrov +1.5 Sets (+110 – 2 units) & Dimitrov ML (+325 – 0.5 units)
Saturday’s Women’s Final: Danielle Collins vs. Elena Rybakina
Rybakina has gotten the better of Collins in each of their last three matches, but there’s something different about this version of the American. With this being her final time playing the Miami Open, Collins is soaking in the atmosphere and playing some of the best tennis of her career. Collins has been especially dominant as a returner in this tournament, breaking her opponent at least twice in 10 of the 13 sets she has played thus far. That’s an absurd number and should do her well against one of the best servers on the planet. And Collins has also been rock-solid when it’s her turn to serve, which has allowed her to win four matches in a row in straight sets.
Collins’ work as a returner is going to put a lot of pressure on Rybakina, who will already have to deal with a very rowdy crowd. That’s going to be rough for Rybakina, especially considering Colins is the better baseline player between these two. Rybakina is one of the best players in the world, so it’s not like she’s lousy from back there. But she doesn’t move around the court very well, and that’s a problem against a player like Collins. The American is going to be in attack mode all throughout this match, and she’ll do everything she can to move Rybakina around.
Overall, Rybakina probably wins this match more often than not, but Collins is in rare form right now. And it just feels like this story ends with her winning the biggest title of her career — and doing so in her home state. That said, I’d rather take the plus-money odds on Collins than lay the juice with Rybakina.
Bet: Collins ML (+152)
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