Miami open preview and tennis best bets for Tuesday, March 26
The second half of the “Sunshine Double” is the Miami Open, which takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida over the next week. This tournament, much like the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, is one of the biggest non-majors of the year. So, even though Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal aren’t in the Miami Open field, this is still a loaded event for both the men and the women. With that in mind, we’ll have you covered with tennis best bets throughout. That continues with picks for Tuesday, March 26th. Keep reading for some of my favorite plays of the day, but make sure you check the Pro Picks page for more. I like to see how the odds move throughout the day and I tend to add a few picks each day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Results: 169-188 (+12.70 units)
Tomas Machac vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Machac and Arnaldi played one another in Dubai qualifiers last year, when the Czech earned a 6-0, 6-1 win in under an hour. The interesting thing about that is that Machac’s game has gone to a whole other level since. The Czech is 9-6 in his first full season at the ATP level, and he has scored wins over some great players. In fact, he already has victories over Andrey Rublev and Andy Murray this week. Now, Machac is going to feel very good about his chances of moving to 2-0 against Arnaldi.
Both of these players have complete baseline games, so this match should be pretty pleasing on the eye. But Machac has a bit more firepower from both wings. When he’s dialed in, he can hit his opponents off the court. Machac is also a bit better as both a server and a returner, according to Tennis Abstract’s hold and break percentages. With that in mind, I’m not overthinking this match. I’m taking the better all-around player that wiped the floor with this same opponent a year ago.
Bet: Machac ML (-120 – 1.5 units)
Yulia Putintseva vs. Victoria Azarenka
Maria Sakkari vs. Elena Rybakina
I don’t necessarily love moneyline parlays, but I have been having some success with them lately. And I do like both Azarenka and Rybakina to win their matches, but I couldn’t figure out how to play them with the game or set spreads.
It’s just hard to see how Putintseva is going to find a way to beat Azarenka here. Azarenka is 2-0 against Putintseva in her career, and she might just have too much power for her. That isn’t always a deciding factor in Azarenka’s matches, as she can occasionally be erratic from the baseline. But she really enjoys playing in Miami, and she also has a significant advantage on her serve.
As for Rybakina, she isn’t playing her best tennis right now, but she’s still a tough matchup for Sakkari. She’s one of the best servers on the planet, while Sakkari can occasionally struggle to win easy service games. And Rybakina’s power from the baseline could be a little overwhelming for Sakkari on low-bouncing courts.
Parlay: Azarenka ML + Rybakina ML (-120)
Monday’s Plays
Madison Keys +3.5 Games (-105 – 1.5 units) & ML (+225 – 0.5 units) vs. Elena Rybakina
Lorenzo Musetti +1.5 Sets (-132 – 1.5 units) & ML (+230 – 0.5 units) vs. Ben Shelton
Hubert Hurkacz ML vs. Sebastian Korda + Danielle Collins ML vs. Sorana Cirstea (+152 – 1.5 units)
