Tennis Best Bets: Monte Carlo Masters picks and predictions for Tsitsipas vs. Sinner & Ruud vs. Djokovic – Saturday, April 13

Zachary Cohen dives into his favorite Monte Carlo Masters tennis best bets for Saturday, April 13th.

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Mar 31, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Jannik Sinner (ITA) poses for a portrait with the Butch Buchholz trophy after his match against Grigor Dmitrov (BUL) (not pictured) in the men's singles final of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Monte Carlo Masters semifinals tennis best bets for Saturday, April 13

There’s nothing quite like the heart of clay-court season, which truly begins with the Monte Carlo Masters. This is a tournament that ranks just below the four Grand Slams in terms of importance. And while the field for this event is smaller, it’s absolutely loaded with talent. So, we’ll be providing you with tennis best bets on a daily basis for this one. And that continues with our semi-final previews for Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner and Casper Ruud vs. Novak Djokovic.

Make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Saturday, April 13th. Also, make sure you come back throughout the day, as I constantly add picks to my card. So, if you’re interested in a match and want to see what I have on it, come back before first ball and see if I added something on it! I also will be adding some Challenger-level picks below.

 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

2024 Results: 203-230 (+2.65 units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner

I have a pre-tournament future on Sinner to win this tournament, so I’m not personally rushing to bet anything here. But I do think Sinner will win this match in straight sets. Tsitsipas has turned back the clock in Monte Carlo, where he is a two-time champion. The Greek star hasn’t dropped a single set, despite having faced Laslo Djere, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov. And he has looked rather sharp from the baseline all week. But looking sharp against great players is one thing. Doing it against Sinner, in his current form, is another.

Sinner, who is 25-1 this year, has the power to really move Tsitsipas around the baseline, and the Italian is going to attack his opponent’s weak backhand relentlessly here. Not only will Sinner pepper that side in baseline exchanges, but it’ll also be his target when the Italian is serving. Darren Cahill is one of the better strategists in the sport right now, and he’ll have a clear and direct plan for Sinner to execute. And the reality is that Tsitsipas’ time beating up on Sinner is over. The Greek star won five of their first six matches, but Sinner has won each of their last two. And the Italian didn’t drop a set in either of them. It’s hard to see that changing on clay, where Tsitsipas’ serve only becomes easier to return. Sinner is also a much better player now than he was when these two met in December.

Lean: Sinner -1.5 Sets (-110)

Casper Ruud vs. Novak Djokovic

In last year’s French Open final, Djokovic earned a 7-6 (1), 6-3, 7-5 win over Ruud. Djokovic is now 5-0 against the Norwegian and has never dropped a set against him. That includes three meetings on the dirt, which is undoubtedly Ruud’s favorite surface. But I actually like Ruud to get on the board in this match. So, I’m taking him to win a set with my Saturday tennis best bets. And I’m also playing the moneyline.

Ruud is going to have a serious mental hurdle to get over when he faces Djokovic. It’s never easy facing somebody that has had your number. But Ruud just needs to trust in the work he has done. This season, Ruud has a career-high winning percentage, as he has won 76.7% of his matches (23-7). Ruud is also holding at a career-high 90.3% and he’s breaking at 24.6%. The latter is up from the previous two seasons. Ruud is just a lot more solid when it’s his turn to serve, as evidenced by him making 76.2% of his first serves. Ruud has never made more than 75.0%, and he can really put some pressure on Djokovic if he’s consistently making them on Saturday.

Ruud is also a little less passive from the baseline, where he has always hit with heavy topspin and serious depth. However, he’s now looking to end some rallies faster, and that has made him less predictable.

In addition to Ruud playing the best tennis of his career, Djokovic has looked really off this week. Sure, the 24-time Grand Slam champion has earned straight set wins in all three of his matches. But the Serbian has been caught gasping for air in each of his last two matches, and he has looked like he is on the verge of passing out during changeovers. On top of that, Djokovic’s serve has been a little shaky, and he’s missing a lot more rally-balls than usual. Djokovic has just been giving his opponents opportunities, and they have been unable to take advantage. But Ruud is too good of a clay-court player to let many of those get away.

Bet: Ruud +1.5 Sets (-125 units – 2 units) & Ruud ML (+220)

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