Monte Carlo Masters preview and tennis best bets for Sunday, April 7
There’s nothing quite like the heart of clay-court season, which truly begins with the Monte Carlo Masters in France. This is a tournament that ranks just below the four Grand Slams in terms of importance. And while the field for this event is smaller, it’s absolutely loaded with talent. Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will all be out there for this event, but it’s Andrey Rublev who is the defending champion here. Those four, along with several other remarkable players, will be gunning for the first Masters 1000 title of 2024 on the dirt. And we’ll be providing you with tennis best bets on a daily basis for this one. So, make sure you come back to VSiN to see what I’m betting. I have one play for the Monte Carlo action on Sunday, and I also have a few futures that I like. I’ll also have plays for the Marrakech, Charleston and Houston finals down below.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Results: 185-212 (+1.86 units)
Monte Carlo Masters Quick Thoughts
We’re entering a string of massive clay-court events and the style of play on the ATP Tour is about to change drastically. While Indian Wells and Miami played slow for hard-court tournaments, those were fast compared to what we’re about to see in Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. These next four events are considered Category 1s in speed, according to ITF Court Pace Rating. So, while power is always in important in tennis, backing players with the ability to move is important during clay-court season. You also want to consider players that can hit powerful shots with a lot of topspin.
A heavy ball that can push an opponent back is big at this time of year. There’s a reason Rafael Nadal is one of the most dominant clay-court players ever. Sure, he’s one of the best grinders in the history of the sport. But nobody can pound topspin-heavy shots deep in the court like Nadal, who is unfortunately out indefinitely as he continues to deal with injuries.
Monte Carlo Masters Men’s Futures
Jannik Sinner To Win Monte Carlo Masters (+300 – 2 units): Sinner lucked out with his draw this week, as he won’t see Djokovic or Alcaraz until a potential final. That means that Sinner just needs to worry about guys like Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev. Well, I’m not very worried about Medvedev getting to the semifinals in a clay-court tournament. He has historically struggled on the surface. And I’m going to put a little something on Zverev to protect against him beating Sinner to book a spot in the final.
Most of Sinner’s success has come on hard courts to this point, but he has still won 67.2% of his matches on clay. And with his improved ability as both a server and returner, he should be a contender at all of these tournaments over the next few weeks.
Overall, we’re talking about a guy that is 22-1 on the season. And his loss to Alcaraz in Indian Wells might have gone differently if he didn’t hurt himself diving for a ball. That said, I feel good about Sinner’s draw and am just hoping to get to the final holding a +300 ticket. The odds against Djokovic or Alcaraz would allow for an easy hedge, if you even want one.
Alexander Zverev To Win Monte Carlo Masters (+2000 – 0.5 units): Zverev is the only player that I believe is standing in Sinner’s way. The 26-year-old is one of the better clay-court players on tour, so he can easily win a tournament over the next few weeks. With that in mind, I’m playing him to win this one. These odds are just way too hard to pass up right now. Zverev went to the quarterfinals in Indian Wells, where he ran into a red-hot Alcaraz. And he played good tennis in Miami before facing a scorching Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals. Now, Zverev is on a surface that fits his game perfectly. His big serve and ability to track everything down along the baseline will make him tough to beat.
Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Best Bets For Sunday, April 7th
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz
I have had some success betting Musetti as the Italian has tried to play his way into form. We have seen up-and-down play from him over the last few weeks, which is an improvement considering how lifeless he was earlier in the year. And Musetti has had a little more success on clay than Fritz throughout his career. However, Musetti is coming off an ugly straight-set loss to Nuno Borges in Estoril. And the unforced errors and overall stretches of sloppiness are hard to overlook against Fritz. The American is just a little bit sturdier than Musetti right now, and he has improved drastically on clay since earlier in his career. Over the last 52 weeks, Fritz is 11-7 on the dirt. And I think his ability to easily hold will be the difference here.
Fritz has the power to serve through these slow conditions, either by rocketing the ball by Musetti or setting up some favorable serve-plus-one opportunities. Meanwhile, Musetti can get a little careless with the ball on his racket. And if he gives Fritz too many opportunities to break, the American will take advantage — especially considering he’ll have more time to pick up serves on the dirt.
Fritz is also 2-0 against Musetti in his career and has never dropped a set against him. And while neither of those matches were on clay, that’s still a mental hurdle Musetti will need to clear.
Bet: Fritz ML (-114 – 2 units)
Added Bets
PARLAY: Matteo Berrettini ML vs. Roberto Carballes Baena + Danielle Collins ML vs. Daria Kasatkina (-114 – 1.5 units)
Frances Tiafoe ML (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Ben Shelton
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML (-200 – 1.5 units) vs. Alexis Galarneau [Mexico City Challenger]
