The 2026 tennis season has moved into the Asian Swing, and we’ll be paying close attention to the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai. This is an interesting portion of the season, as nobody is thinking about Grand Slams. Everyone is simply jockeying for year-end positioning. The conditions are different, too. The courts and the humidity in China play differently than the North American hard courts, and that affects who can control rallies, who can hold serve, and who even has the physicality required to finish matches.
Fortunately for all of us, there’s no shortage of matches to break down as the week unfolds, and I’ll keep posting my tennis best bets daily. Because of the time difference, matches overnight in the US run across two calendar days. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Saturday, October 10 and Sunday, October 11. Also, keep an eye on the new VSiN Community and the VSiN Pro Picks page for other plays.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Quentin Halys vs. Alexander Zverev
I had Halys to win his match against Alexander Blockx and I noted in that write-up that the Frenchman has been playing some much better tennis lately. That was mostly an eye-test observation, but the numbers really back it up. Halys actually has a Performance Rating of 8.27 in Shanghai thus far, and he’s at 8.05 in the five matches he has played since arriving in Asia a couple of weeks ago. To put that into perspective for you, Felix Auger-Aliassime, the current world No. 5, has a Performance Rating of 8.01 on the season.
Halys is going to cool down eventually. However, the odds next to him represent the player he has been, but the player he is right now is a little better than that. So, I strongly believe the Frenchman is mispriced heading into this match, and I’m willing to put a little something on him and find out.
Halys also happened to drag Zverev to five sets at the US Open, and I think the conditions in New York were a little friendlier to the German. In Shanghai, it should be a little harder for Zverev to get into Halys’ serve.
Bet: Halys +1.5 Sets (+155) & Halys ML (+570 – 0.25 units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Frances Tiafoe
It was only a matter of time before I screwed up projecting what the schedule would look like for this tournament. Well, I had Davidovich Fokina over Tiafoe in my best bets column from yesterday. I gave it out at plus-money odds, but I’d still say it’s playable up to -125.
Bet: Davidovich Fokina ML (+110)
Qinwen Zheng vs. Mirra Andreeva (Beijing Final)
I’m mostly writing about Shanghai in here, but we have a 1000-level final for the women in Beijing early Sunday morning. It’s also a match in which I have a play. Let’s get into it.
Zheng is currently outside the Top 50 in the WTA rankings, but most tennis fans know that her ranking means nothing. She’s a former world No. 4, an Olympic gold medalist, and a clear top-10 talent on the WTA Tour. Injuries are the only reason she is ranked where she is, and she has completely found her form. At the US Open, we saw Zheng run to the quarterfinals with wins over Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek. Now, just one tournament later, she’s in the finals after having earned wins over Anna Kalinskaya, Marie Bouzkova, Elina Svitolina, and Elise Mertens.
With Zheng playing her best tennis again, I just don’t think she should be anywhere near +154 against Andreeva. This should be treated as much closer to a coin-toss match between two top-tier players than whatever the oddsmakers have it as.
In theory, Andreeva’s ability to absorb pace and counter-punch should make her a very difficult matchup for Zheng. But at the same time, Andreeva’s mental game remains a weakness, and she’s facing Zheng in China. She could easily implode with the crowd pulling for Zheng. Realistically, anything can happen here. I’ll take a stab with the ‘dog.
Bet: Zheng ML (+154)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
