Rays vs. Guardians
October weather in the Midwest is always a crapshoot and Major League Baseball is trying to avoid a 7-out on Thursday. With rain forecasted to start in the evening, Game 3 between the Rays and Guardians was moved up from 6 p.m. ET to 1 p.m. ET. To be honest, my read on the situation is that they are very worried about Friday’s game and didn’t want to run the risk of moving both games to get way behind schedule.
Friday looks like a washout, which would push that game to Saturday. Sunday is already a scheduled off day, so playing Game 5 then, while inconvenient for both teams from a travel standpoint, is very much in play. It was simply easier to make sure that Game 3 got played, as Friday looks worse all day long.
Guardians fans are enraged, understandably so, as the game went from after traditional work hours to right in the middle of the day. Pardon the pun, but that could dampen the atmosphere a little bit for this one, a key swing game in a series tied 1-1.
Rays vs. Guardians (-133, 6.5) Prediction
Thursday, 1 p.m. ET
Griffin Jax and Gavin Williams are the slated starters here. Jax was used for two innings in relief against the Yankees, but those are the only two innings that he has thrown since September 26. It’s tough to know how sharp he will be, especially outside on a damp day in Cleveland. Jax, of course, was a Minnesota Twin previously and is plenty familiar with several of these Guardians hitters, but he was hurt in August and then had 20.2 innings in September to gear up for the postseason.
I do think that the Rays noted a pretty important adjustment for Game 2, as Freddy Peralta simply pumped high-velo fastballs up in the zone against Guardians hitters. “Fastball Freddy” had 15 Whiffs, including 10 on the fastball. He sat 96.9 mph, a bump of 2.6 mph from the regular season. He also got four Whiffs on changeups and held the Guardians to just four hits with an 84 mph average exit velocity.
In the regular season, Jax threw 25.1% sweepers, 22.7% sinkers, 22.6% changeups, and 18.1% four-seamers. Hitters only posted a .222 BA with a .417 SLG on the sweeper, a .254 BA with a .407 SLG on the sinker, a .226 BA with a .278 SLG on the changeup, and a .250 BA with a .484 SLG on the four-seamer. Even though Jax had more success with the sinker, I would expect an adjustment to more four-seamers here. In fact, Jax had a 21.3% usage rate on four-seamers against left-handed batters compared to a 15.9% usage rate with the sinker. And, of course, his changeup was his most-used pitch at 29.5%. He was more effective against righties than lefties, but lefties only posted a .307 wOBA.
The rub here is that I don’t know how long Jax will be able to go. But, he’ll probably add a tick of velo to his fastball, even with the cooler conditions, and will likely attack similarly to Peralta, just with more changeups. He only walked 35 in 112.1 innings, so the Guardians will probably have an aggressive approach again with a lot of early-count swings.
Williams was simply sensational in his two starts and one relief inning against the White Sox in the ALDS. He struck out 24 of 46 batters over 11.2 innings of work with two runs on six hits. He did walk five batters and had a lot of deep counts, as he needed 210 pitches to record 35 outs. The Rays are a low-strikeout, low-walk team, though, so this start comes down to what happens with the balls in play off of Williams. He allowed a 45.5% Hard Hit% and an 11.4% Barrel% over 431 batted balls.
He had 44 swings and misses in his two starts against Chicago with only 13 balls in play against. Four of those were 95+ mph. The Rays have 36 Whiffs. It should be noted that Tampa Bay swung and missed on seven of 10 pitches from Daniel Espino, including five of eight swings on fastballs. He sat 98.6 mph on those. Williams heavily leveraged his curveball and sweeper against the White Sox. I think we may see him look to also throw more upper-zone fastballs in this outing. Opposing hitters only batted .192 with a .317 SLG against his four-seamer. He allowed six homers on the sinker, eight on the curveball, five on the four-seamer, six on the sweeper, and three on the cutter. He cut his four-seam usage down 10% from 2025 to 2026 after allowing a .268 BA and a .498 SLG on it.
These are two of the most analytically-driven teams in the game, so you know they’re looking very closely at all kinds of data to try and match up as well as possible. The ball might be a little bit jumpier during the day in Cleveland with a high temp around 70 and a little bit of a cross breeze. We’ll see how many hitters can get to the top of the zone and drive the ball.
As far as the bullpen battle goes here, Cade Smith had thrown in 18 of 19 playoff games for the Guardians in his career, but was not used on Tuesday. Neither were Hunter Gaddis nor Erik Sabrowski. That’s a big positive here for the Guardians, as their high-leverage arms, who were very effective in Game 1, are all rested here. Daniel Espino has a long health history and he, too, wasn’t used in Game 2, so he could be a weapon in this one.
On the Rays side, Bryan Baker got his first action of the series and notched an eight-pitch save. Kevin Kelly and Ian Seymour were the only relievers to work both games. Cole Sulser (27 pitches) is the only one who had a long inning in the two games in Florida. Both teams were pretty aggressive with their swings. We’re averaging 3.65 pitches per plate appearance here, but there have been a ton of foul balls.
Rays vs. Guardians Game 3 ALCS Prediction
I like Jax and the Rays at +110 as a starting point in this one. Tampa Bay will need to use a lot of different arms here, but Jax has a pretty good arsenal to match up with the current Cleveland lineup, as he can throw fastballs up and changeups down. Williams really thrives when he gets a lot of strikeouts and swinging strikes. The Rays may be able to make some loud contact against him.
But, while I like the Rays +110 at the outset, this is a game where you want to be ready to fire from a live betting standpoint. With Sabrowski, Gaddis, and Smith rested, Cleveland likely has the bullpen advantage late, so if the game is tied or they are slightly trailing, an opportunity to lock in profit may arise.
Pick: Rays +110
