The 2026 tennis season has moved into the Asian Swing, and we’ll be paying close attention to the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai. This is an interesting portion of the season, as nobody is thinking about Grand Slams. Everyone is simply jockeying for year-end positioning. The conditions are different, too. The courts and the humidity in China play differently than the North American hard courts, and that affects who can control rallies, who can hold serve, and who even has the physicality required to finish matches.
Fortunately for all of us, there’s no shortage of matches to break down as the week unfolds, and I’ll keep posting my tennis best bets daily. Because of the time difference, matches overnight in the US run across two calendar days. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Friday, October 9 and Saturday, October 10. Also, keep an eye on the new VSiN Community and the VSiN Pro Picks page for other plays. I posted my tournament futures in the Community on Tuesday.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Bu Yunchaokete vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud has been miserable recently, but handicapping him like the player we have seen the last few weeks would be a risky proposition. Good players go through lulls all the time, and they always snap out of them. Well, Ruud is a top-10 talent in the world, he’s smack in the middle of his prime, and he has very few holes in his game. It’s only a matter of time before he turns things on in a big way. So, even with Ruud playing poorly coming into this event, I can’t lay off him at -138.
I know Bu has played some solid tennis since arriving in Asia, and the former world No. 64 is a dangerous player. However, he doesn’t have many real advantages against Ruud. The 2025 season was Bu’s only full season on the ATP Tour, and he went 13-26 that year. His TennisViz Performance Rating was also just 6.96. Well, this is Ruud’s worst year on the ATP Tour since his first full season on tour, and his Performance Rating is still up at 8.06.
I just feel confident in saying that Ruud’s worst tennis is on par with Bu’s best, at the very least. Also, in a matchup like this one, it’s the Ruud forehand that will dictate how the match goes. That’s the biggest weapon on the court, and if he has it going then he should advance.
Bet: Ruud ML (-138)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Frances Tiafoe
Davidovich Fokina has had a bit of an odd season. We have seen him part ways with his coach in the middle of a tournament, and he has also dealt with some injuries. However, we have also seen him get on the board when looking at ATP titles, and it almost feels like he’s starting to put everything together. So, while Tiafoe had some good results in North America — as he always does — I wouldn’t make the mistake of heading into this match with the viewpoint that the American is the stronger player.
Davidovich Fokina actually has a higher Performance Rating than Tiafoe (7.74 vs. 7.58) this year. I also feel that the Spaniard’s backhand will be the best shot from the back of the court. Serving could also be an issue for Tiafoe. While he’s dangerous when it comes to generating free points with his first serve, he also has one of the weakest second serves in tennis. That could ultimately doom him against a good returner like this one.
Bet: Davidovich Fokina ML (+110)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
