2026/27 Season Week 4
Week 3 went 2-1 again, putting me at 6-3 for the season. The international break was one for the ages: Manchester City were reportedly found guilty on 114 of their 115 charges, Cristiano Ronaldo stormed out of Portugal’s camp and then released one of the most ridiculous statements you’ll ever read, and Lionel Messi played his final game for Argentina. One of those stories might even make us money.
Club soccer returns, and I have three picks again for this weekend’s action.
All stats are from Sofascore, and all transfer figures are from Transfermarkt.
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | Matchday 5
Saturday, October 10 | 12:30PM ET | Red Bull Arena | Leipzig, Germany | Watch: USA Network
Saturday’s late Bundesliga match sees RB Leipzig welcome Eintracht Frankfurt to the Red Bull Arena, and everything points to a Wild West shootout, with goals at both ends.
Adi Hütter is back for a second spell as Frankfurt manager and has torn up the patient, possession-heavy approach the club played under Dino Toppmöller. His side presses high, counterpresses hard and attacks straight through the middle, with strikers Jonathan Burkardt and Younes Ebnoutalib working as a pair to create space by dragging center backs out of position.
That’s why we’re seeing a repeat of his first spell, when his strikers scored 100 goals in 102 Bundesliga games between 2018 and 2021. Four games into the season, the trend is well and truly alive, with Burkardt and Ebnoutalib scoring seven of Frankfurt’s nine league goals between them.
Hütter’s football is thrilling when it works, but it leaves acres of space behind when Frankfurt are caught in transition, and that leads to goals at the other end too. In his first spell, his defenses leaked 161 goals in 102 Bundesliga matches, which averages out to 1.58 goals a game. This season it’s worse: Frankfurt have conceded 10 goals from 8.18 xG in four games, an average of 2.5 goals and 2.05 xG a game.
Leipzig have the players to exploit that space. Frankfurt crowd the middle of the pitch, which leaves room out wide, and that’s where Leipzig are quickest. On the left, Antonio Nusa and David Raum both have the pace to hurt a backpedaling defense. On the right, Christopher Nkunku is expected to start out wide, but he likes to drift inside, which should leave space for Ridle Baku to break into.
Combine that with Leipzig’s attacking numbers, and Frankfurt are in trouble. They’re averaging 2.25 goals a game from 2.21 xG, with all but one goal coming from open play. At the Red Bull Arena, they’ve won both games, scoring eight in total. Nusa leads the way with two goals and two assists, and over the past two Bundesliga seasons, only Michael Olise has completed more dribbles. Give him room to run, and he’ll punish Frankfurt. That’s why I like Leipzig to secure all three points (-185).
Leipzig’s defense hasn’t conceded at home this season, but the clean sheets flatter them. They’ve allowed three big chances and 2.19 xG at the Red Bull Arena. On the road, the defensive frailties have been exposed: five goals conceded in two Bundesliga games and another four at Como in the Champions League. Frankfurt, meanwhile, have scored in every league game this season. With their front two in this kind of form, I don’t see how Leipzig can keep a third straight clean sheet at home. That’s why I like Both Teams To Score Yes (-270).
Beating Frankfurt isn’t about stopping them from scoring. It’s about punishing them on the break and outscoring them. Leipzig have the firepower and pace to do it.
Pick: Same Game Parlay – RB Leipzig Moneyline and Both Teams To Score Yes +120
OGC Nice vs Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | Matchday 6
Sunday, October 11 | 9AM ET | Allianz Riviera | Nice, France | Watch: beIN Sports
Nice and Strasbourg are both owned by multi-club groups, and neither sits at the top of the food chain. They’re heading in opposite directions.
INEOS, headed by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, took over Nice in 2019 and promised to build a Champions League club that could challenge PSG. Then, in February 2024, Ratcliffe bought into Manchester United, and Nice started their transition from priority to abandoned stepchild. By May 2025, INEOS had them on the market.
Seventeen months later, INEOS still haven’t found a buyer, and spending has all but dried up. That neglect has shown up on the pitch and in the stands. In November 2025, supporters confronted the team at the training ground over poor performances, and Jérémie Boga and Terem Moffi were assaulted. Neither played for the club again, and both have since moved on.
Nice finished 16th and needed a 4-1 aggregate win over Saint-Étienne in the relegation playoff to stay up. The decisive second leg was played at home in an empty stadium because fans had stormed the pitch after the season finale against Metz.
After all of that, Nice spent just €1.7 million in transfer fees this summer, on one player. They filled the rest of the squad with loans and free agents and sold €46.75 million worth of players to balance the books. The result: five points and three goals from five games. Four games in, Jonathan Clauss gave up the captaincy, saying he wasn’t a natural leader. The armband was handed to 37-year-old Axel Witsel, a free-agent signing who had been at the club for barely a month.
Strasbourg have their own problems with BlueCo. Local owners rebuilt the club from the fifth tier after their 2011 liquidation, and fans hate seeing them used as a feeder club for Chelsea. That resentment boiled over when manager Liam Rosenior left for Stamford Bridge last season. Supporters have staged silent protests at away games, hung “no to multi-ownership” banners and even traveled to London to join Chelsea fans in a “BlueCo Out” march.
But at least BlueCo know you have to spend money to make money. Strasbourg sold €200.85 million worth of players this summer and put €99.4 million back into the squad, roughly half. They paid €3 million for USMNT midfielder Gio Reyna alone, nearly twice what Nice spent all summer. Nice reinvested less than 4% of what they made. One owner is building a team to develop and sell. The other is just waiting for the right price to hand over the keys.
That’s why I’m trusting my gut and backing Strasbourg on the Moneyline at +195. I won’t pretend the numbers are in my favor. Both sides are being outplayed: Nice creates an average of 1.11 xG a game and allows 1.70, while Strasbourg creates 1.16 and allows 1.96. Strasbourg have been boom or bust on the road, with six goals at Troyes and just 0.42 xG combined in their two away defeats. Their only goal in those games came from a Paris FC own goal.
Strasbourg aren’t perfect, but they have direction and a far more talented, exciting squad. Nice are in limbo, waiting to be sold, with a roster that’s had no love or investment: their second captain of the season and an attack that’s failed to score in three of five league games.
The club heading in the right direction is great value at +195 to leave with three points. Back Strasbourg to boom, not bust.
Pick: Strasbourg Moneyline +195
Sassuolo vs AC Milan | Serie A | Matchday 6
Sunday, October 11 | 12PM ET | Mapei Stadium | Reggio Emilia, Italy | Watch: Paramount+
Gonçalo Ramos has yet to find his feet at AC Milan, but I think the international break will be the catalyst to change that.
With Cristiano Ronaldo spitting his dummy out and walking out of Portugal’s camp, Ramos led the line, and he delivered. He scored the winner in Norway, found the net against Denmark and then scored the winner again when Portugal beat Norway at home. Three starts, three goals, two winners.
Ronaldo says he’ll be available again in November, but it’s hard to see him playing a competitive game for Portugal again. His final appearance will more likely be a friendly, much like Lionel Messi’s farewell with Argentina. Either way, the Portugal No. 9 shirt is Ramos’s to lose, and that’s the kind of motivation and confidence boost the 25-year-old needs.
He hasn’t been short of chances, either. He has one goal from 1.55 xG in Serie A this season and has missed five big chances, so the problem has been finishing, not getting into good positions. That finishing came back for Portugal, with his three goals coming from chances worth just 1.18 xG combined.
Sassuolo are the perfect opponent for him to continue his goalscoring form. They’ve conceded nine goals in five games and haven’t kept a clean sheet, and they’ve given up 16 big chances, more than three a game.
The stars are aligning for Ramos. Back him to kickstart his Milan career with a goal on Sunday at the Mapei Stadium.
Pick: Gonçalo Ramos Anytime Goalscorer +145
