It might feel like the US Open marks the end of tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We still have a few 1000-level events left — plus the ATP and WTA Finals — and some of them are taking place right now. The men are currently in Shanghai for the Rolex Shanghai Masters at Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena. Meanwhile, the women are in Wuhan for a 1000 of their own: the Wuhan Open. With that in mind, keep reading for some tennis best bets, focusing on the action on Friday, October 10 and Saturday, October 11. We’re going to be hitting on semi-final matchups like Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Arthur Rinderknech vs. Daniil Medvedev, and Jasmine Paolini vs. Coco Gauff.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Daniil Medvedev
Sabalenka served up a Captain Insano-sized can of whoop-a** on Elena Rybakina last match. The Belarusian got revenge for her straight-set loss to Rybakina in Cincinnati, earning a 6-3, 6-3 win in Wuhan. After struggling a bit with Rebecca Sramkova in the Round of 32, Sabalenka has now earned straight-set wins over Liudmila Samsonova and Rybakina. She’s finding her footing at an event she has won three times, and I like her to move from 20-0 to 21-0 lifetime in Wuhan. Pegula is playing some fantastic tennis right now, but she has played three grueling three-set matches in a row. She also had to have her left leg heavily taped in the win over Katerina Siniakova last match. That won’t do her any favors against an opponent that is 8-2 against her.
To get a better price on Sabalenka, I’m pairing her with Medvedev to end the Rinderknech story. Right now, the Frenchman is playing some fantastic tennis, and he’s doing so while his cousin, Valentin Vacherot, does the same on the other side of the bracket. Unfortunately, I don’t quite see this turning into a cousin vs. cousin final. Novak Djokovic should swat the fly in his half of the draw, and Medvedev’s game is a tough match for Rinderknech. The Russian is one of the best returners on the planet, so he should be able to put a dent in a number of Rinderknech’s service games. And without consistently racking up easy holds — and winning potential tiebreakers — Rinderknech doesn’t really have a way into this match. Medvedev also played some outstanding tennis against Alex de Minaur, and avoiding a third set in that physical matchup was massive. He should be fit enough to play his game for this entire match, and his game has gone to another level since making changes to his team.
PARLAY: Sabalenka ML & Medvedev ML (-130 – 1.5 units)
Jasmine Paolini vs. Coco Gauff
Paolini has won three matches in a row against Gauff, but the oddsmakers still have the American as a sizable favorite in this match. And I do love her chances of getting back in the win column against the Italian.
Gauff’s mechanical changes haven’t made her a flawless player just yet — she needs more time. However, she has made at least 64.0% of her first serves in five of her last six matches. That’s a much better number than what she has for the entire season (61.4%). She’s also doing a better job of winning behind her second serve, even if she still has her issues with double faults.
Realistically, a Gauff that is a little sharper as a server is a completely different version of the American, and this player should be able to beat Paolini. The American’s going to get through a few of her service games easier, she’s going to continue to defend like hell along the baseline, and then there’s the groundstrokes. Gauff’s down-the-line forehand is suddenly a weapon again. Maybe that has to do with her new coaches, and maybe it has to do with her enjoying this part of the calendar. The forehand was a big weapon for her towards the end of 2024, too. But either way, with Gauff serving a little better and playing much cleaner from the baseline, I’m not sure where Paolini has the edge. That’s why I’m comfortable with the juice.
Bet: Gauff ML (-175)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
