Tennis Best Bets for Tuesday, April 16th
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. This week, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart. I’ll scan through all of the tournaments to find some winners, so make sure you check out my stuff this week.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page. So, keep reading for my tennis picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 16th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 211-234 (+9.50 units)
Jaume Munar vs. Yoshihito Nishioka – Barcelona
Rafael Nadal vs. Flavio Cobolli – Barcelona
Munar and Nadal are both massive favorites, so I’m parlaying them together to get a decent price. Munar is coming off a tough loss to Roman Safiullin in Monte Carlo, but he has still won three of his last five matches on clay. And Munar has 62 career wins on the surface. That’s 21 more victories on clay than the amount of matches Nishioka has played on the surface. With that in mind, Munar will have a massive advantage when it comes to experience. And he’s going to be a tough matchup for Nishioka. The Japanese player likes to prolong rallies and outwork his opponents. But Munar is capable of getting everything back. And the Spaniard’s ability to hit with heavy topspin should give Nishioka some problems. Nishioka is also a lousy server, so Munar should have success as a returner.
As for Nadal, the only thing I’m worried about is the Spaniard getting through this match healthy. If he does, he should have no problems with Cobolli. Nadal earned a 6-1 win over Andrey Rublev in a practice set over the weekend, and he can beat 95% of the players on tour on clay when he’s at 75% health. So, it’s hard to picture a scenario in which Cobolli knocks him off. Even if Nadal isn’t moving as well as we’re used to, he has the power required to move Cobolli all around the court. And I trust Nadal to finish points when he has Cobolli in a compromised position. Nadal is also the better server and returner here. Also, if Nadal doesn’t end up finishing this match, this portion of the bet would just be voided.
PARLAY: Munar ML/Nadal ML (-165 – 1.5 units)
Daniel Altmaier vs. Alexei Popyrin – Barcelona
The last time these two met was last August, when Popryin earned a 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-4 win in Cincinnati. That was a tightly contested match that could have gone either way, and it was played on a hard court. That’s Popyrin’s favorite surface. Well, this match will be played on clay, which is Altmaier’s favorite surface. So, in a meeting between two players with big serves, it’s hard to see this being anything but a close match. And breaks of serve could come at a premium here. But Altmaier should be a little more trustworthy to come through in big moments on clay. And even if he doesn’t, it’s hard to see this being anything other than a 7-6, 6-4 win for Popyrin, if it even ends in straight sets. But I think Altmaier will get on the board. And I also think he’s a live ‘dog here.
Bet: Altmaier +3.5 Games (-154 – 1.5 units)
Ivan Gakhov vs. Botic Van De Zandschulp – Munich
This is going to be a pretty interesting match. While people might not know much about Gakhov, the lefty has played 118 clay-court matches at the Challenger level over the last 52 weeks. That’s just a ton of clay-court tennis. And he won both of his qualifying matches in straight sets. So, he’s experienced on the surface and playing good tennis coming into this match. Meanwhile, Van De Zandschulp has only played 10 clay-court matches over the last 52 weeks. And Van De Zandschulp has lost two of his last three clay-court matches, with both of the losses coming in straight sets.
There’s just a significant gap in experience on this surface, and Gakhov has a style of play that should make it difficult for Van De Zandschulp to win easily. Gakhov has a powerful serve and plays a big, aggressive game from the baseline. So, he won’t back down from Van De Zandschulp, and he likely won’t get broken easily. That should help Gakhov keep things close enough to cover a 4.5-game spread. On top of that, Van De Zandschulp is just 11-15 against left-handed players in his career. So, he might take a while to get comfortable in this match.
Bet: Gakhov +4.5 Games (-133)
Added Plays
Samuel Vincent Ruggeri ML (-102 – 1.5 units) vs. Nicolas Moreno De Alboran [Oeiras 3 Challenger]