The ATP and WTA Tours are fully into the North American hard-court swing, and this week brings our first true benchmark events with the 1000-level stops in Montreal and Toronto. With the US Open now on the horizon, this stretch is where contenders start to separate, dialing in their timing, adjusting to quicker conditions, and building real momentum against elite fields.
These tournaments carry significant weight on both tours, giving us a strong read on form, fitness, and potential title paths heading into New York. There’s no shortage of high-level matches to break down, so we’ll have plenty to work with as the week unfolds. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then rolling out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals.
With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the National Bank Open on Tuesday, August 11.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Jakub Mensik vs. Ben Shelton
It’s never fun going up against Shelton on hard courts, but you sometimes get good value fading him in big tournaments. He’s such a popular player that you occasionally see the market bend to account for public action on him, and I believe we have seen some of that in the last two matches. Of course, taking Joao Fonseca didn’t work out well for me last match, but I do wonder how that match would have went had the Brazilian not twisted his ankle on a crucial point in the second set. Either way, I’m not one to let one result completely swing the way I approach my tennis betting.
As far as this matchup goes, Mensik has had success before. He has actually won back-to-back matches against the American, and one of those victories came in an outdoor hard-court match in Auckland. And realistically, it isn’t hard to figure out why the Czech is comfortable facing him. Lefties can sometimes punish righty players with weak backhands, as their natural cross-court forehand patterns usually find the weaker wing. But Mensik has one of the best two-handers on the planet. On top of that, Mensik is every bit as good of a server as Shelton is.
I just don’t like the implied probability that Shelton, who is priced as high as -138 at some prominent shops, wins this match 58% of the time. These are evenly-matched players, plus Shelton is under more pressure as the defending champion.
Bet: Mensik ML (+113 – 1.5 units)
Naomi Osaka vs. Elena Rybakina
This is surprisingly going to be the first meeting between these players, and that always adds an interesting dynamic to matches. However, I do think that it’s Rybakina that is going to struggle a bit more in this one. In many ways, this will be a match in which both players will feel as though they’re looking in mirrors. These are two players with elite serves and massive ball-striking. But Osaka is the one that is playing better tennis right now, and I like the way she matches up at the moment.
Rybakina’s serve has been a little unreliable in her last couple of matches, and that’s dangerous with Osaka doing some high-level returning lately. Osaka has really worked on her positioning in recent years, and she’s now putting more pressure on her opponents. When you add that to the fact that Osaka has been the more precise ball-basher in recent months, it’s hard to spot the advantages for Rybakina.
Bet: Osaka ML (-110 – 2 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
