MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, August 11.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:45 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
While the Nationals’ leader in home runs, James Wood, is out with an injury, the team still leads the league in scoring with 5.3 runs per game. Washington faces Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga, who owns a 3.60 ERA but a higher 4.38 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. Over his past 14 starts, Imanaga has a 4.48 ERA and a 5.45 fielding independent with 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin owns a 5.37 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.84.
Pick: Cubs vs. Nationals Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.6
7:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has some of the biggest home-and-road splits of any pitcher in the league, posting a 1.96 ERA with fewer than 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 6.71 ERA with 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road. Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers owns a 3.79 ERA and a 3.65 fielding independent with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. He enters in his best form of the season, allowing zero or one run in four of his past five starts, and faces a Mariners team that ranks last in the league in scoring with fewer than 3.9 runs per game. Over their past 38 games, the Yankees are averaging fewer than 3.4 runs per game.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -125 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -159 and Total 8.3
7:07 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has been incredible this season with a 2.28 ERA and a 2.20 fielding independent while allowing 0.5 home runs per nine innings and recording 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed one run or fewer in five of his past six starts. Red Sox starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval has made just five starts since the beginning of the 2025 season, posting a 3.38 ERA and a 4.00 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Blue Jays offense that ranks 29th in scoring with just over 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -163
7:45 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
The Twins offense has struggled without Byron Buxton, averaging just under 3.5 runs per game in the 11 games he missed entering Monday. Minnesota faces Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young, who is recording only 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings but owns a low 3.43 ERA while allowing only one home run per nine innings. He is supported by an Orioles bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA since June 1 at 3.33, while the Twins rank 23rd during that span at 4.81. Minnesota sends Bailey Ober to the mound, and he owns a 4.45 ERA with a career-low 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline +105 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -121 and Total 8.7
9:38 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Ryan Johnson owns a 7.11 ERA with 2.3 home runs and 4.4 walks allowed per nine innings and is backed by a lineup that averaged only 2.55 runs per game over its first 20 games following the All-Star Break. Rangers starting pitcher Chase Bradford tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings in his first MLB start since the 2024 season and is supported by a lineup that ranks 23rd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -144 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -154 and Total 8.9
9:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher Mason Barnett owns a 5.56 ERA with 2.1 home runs and 4.5 walks allowed per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that entered Monday ranked last in the league in ERA, posting a 6.83 mark since June 1. Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez is pitching to a ton of contact with only 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings, registering a 2.65 ERA but a fielding independent closer to 4.00.
Pick: Rays vs. Athletics Over 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.7
10:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers give Blake Snell his second start of the season after his first was a three-inning stinker in which he allowed five runs, four of them earned. The Dodgers offense ranks fourth in the league in scoring with five runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha owns a 3.44 ERA and a 4.02 fielding independent with seven strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 5.36.
Pick: Royals vs. Dodgers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
