The ATP and WTA Tours are fully into the North American hard-court swing, and this week brings our first true benchmark events with the 1000-level stops in Montreal and Toronto. With the US Open now on the horizon, this stretch is where contenders start to separate, dialing in their timing, adjusting to quicker conditions, and building real momentum against elite fields.
These tournaments carry significant weight on both tours, giving us a strong read on form, fitness, and potential title paths heading into New York. There’s no shortage of high-level matches to break down, so we’ll have plenty to work with as the week unfolds. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then rolling out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals.
With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the National Bank Open on Tuesday, August 4.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Zachary Svajda vs. Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov is coming off a good run in Los Cabos, where he was the runner-up in an event he won a year ago. However, the Canadian played some long, physical matches in Mexico, and he’ll now look to make a run in his home 1000. Shapovalov could be a little fatigued, which should be a factor when you also consider the pressure he’ll be dealing with this week. Well, all of that makes his opening-round matchup with Svajda look like a tough one.
Svajda is a good mover, he’s extremely consistent, and he has made serious strides with his serve. He’s turning into the type of player that nobody wants to see early in a tournament. In this specific matchup, Svajda’s ability to stay solid could trouble the erratic Shapovalov. This could be one in which Shapovalov really racks up unforced errors. I’ll also note that Svajda has an awesome backhand, which should allow him to hold up pretty nicely when Shapovalov is going cross court with his lefty forehand.
There’s just a real chance Svajda can grind his way into this match, making him worthy of a shot at plus-money odds.
Bet: Svajda ML (+122)
Duncan Chan vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante
Chan has been playing well at the lower levels of tennis, and he was able to beat a tricky player in Hugo Gaston to qualify for this event. The 20-year-old Canadian will now look to win a main-draw match on home soil, and it feels like he got a strong matchup.
While Agustin Tirante is a good player, he has a losing record on all non-clay surfaces at the ATP level. He hasn’t been able to find ways to get his game to translate, and he’ll likely be defeated early in Montreal. This is a tournament that plays pretty fast, with first-strike tennis being rewarded. Well, Chan is the only player in this match that looks to win points quickly.
As long as the moment doesn’t get too big for him, Chan should be able to keep himself in this match. That said, I’m taking him to win a set while also sprinkling the moneyline.
Bet: Chan +1.5 Sets (-115 – 1.5 units) & Chan ML (+245 – 0.5 units)
Camila Osorio vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
Alexandrova should be extremely dangerous in faster conditions, but she’s not the same player this year. Normally one of the better servers — and pure power players — on tour, the Russian has been all kinds of shaky in 2026. This year, her hold rate is down at 67.9%. It was up at 74.2% in 2025. She’s also breaking just 29.6% of the time, despite being at 30% or higher in six of the previous seven seasons.
With Alexandrova not playing like her usual self, it’s hard not to like Osorio to win this one. Osorio is extremely reliable when it comes to covering the court, so she should be able to extract a ton of errors out of her opponent. However, Osorio is also plenty capable of playing offense herself.
This is just a match in which Alexandrova’s only advantage is her serve, but she’s barely even serving better than Osorio. That said, the Colombian really should find a way through.
Bet: Osorio ML (-101 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
